We'll need a universal basic income (UBI) in an AI-driven world
43 comments
Everybody forgets that AI is just a computer.
AI cannot dig ditches. AI cannot harvest crops. AI cannot frame a house, fix a car, or do anything else in the real, physical world. It will never do these things, not because of technical limitations, but because human labor is cheap and versatile.
AI can only really take the jobs of those who sit at a computer all day. Even then, I suspect that the only people who really need to worry over the long term are middle management. And good riddance to them.
But either way, there will be no UBI, so don't hold your breath. Our leadership will let us all starve in the streets the second we are no longer required.
AI cannot dig ditches. AI cannot harvest crops. AI cannot frame a house, fix a car, or do anything else in the real, physical world. It will never do these things, not because of technical limitations, but because human labor is cheap and versatile.
AI can only really take the jobs of those who sit at a computer all day. Even then, I suspect that the only people who really need to worry over the long term are middle management. And good riddance to them.
But either way, there will be no UBI, so don't hold your breath. Our leadership will let us all starve in the streets the second we are no longer required.
I get where you’re coming from. I don’t think UBI is just an “AI future” thing though. Even without AI, we’ve already got a system where wealth is concentrating at the top, and AI just puts that process on fast-forward.
I’ve been lucky enough to use AI daily since ChatGPT went viral, and even from that position of privilege it’s hard not to notice how uneven the benefits are. The people who can adapt quickly or are already in high paying roles will figure out how to use it to make more money. Meanwhile, a lot of folks who could really use a safety net won’t even get the chance to learn the tools before they’re left behind.
And honestly, even AI fluent people are struggling. I know people who use AI fluently for job hunting and still can’t find work, let alone a well paying role. Even I was struggling to find a job in tech a few months ago. If that’s the situation in AI heavy markets, can't even imagine what it’s like in parts of the world where most people haven’t even heard of AI.
So yeah, I agree with you that UBI won’t happen anytime soon. But I also think that if the big players wait until AI has already “disrupted everything” to start talking seriously about it, the gap will be so wide by then that it’ll be almost impossible to close.
I’ve been lucky enough to use AI daily since ChatGPT went viral, and even from that position of privilege it’s hard not to notice how uneven the benefits are. The people who can adapt quickly or are already in high paying roles will figure out how to use it to make more money. Meanwhile, a lot of folks who could really use a safety net won’t even get the chance to learn the tools before they’re left behind.
And honestly, even AI fluent people are struggling. I know people who use AI fluently for job hunting and still can’t find work, let alone a well paying role. Even I was struggling to find a job in tech a few months ago. If that’s the situation in AI heavy markets, can't even imagine what it’s like in parts of the world where most people haven’t even heard of AI.
So yeah, I agree with you that UBI won’t happen anytime soon. But I also think that if the big players wait until AI has already “disrupted everything” to start talking seriously about it, the gap will be so wide by then that it’ll be almost impossible to close.
It’s a start but not good enough. We also need a sense of accomplishment, like what do we live for. I know it’s mostly a luxury these days but in an AI powered world, it might be essential to keep people going.
Most work doesn't provide that anyway for the majority of people.
These are very hard questions. Gives me the chills.
We forget how the scurry of the now keeps us in a frenzy and before you know, 2 decades have gone past and we're all playing catch up to the new world order - what world order? (I don't know and that scare me; [deep sigh])
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└── Dey well; Be well
We forget how the scurry of the now keeps us in a frenzy and before you know, 2 decades have gone past and we're all playing catch up to the new world order - what world order? (I don't know and that scare me; [deep sigh])
│
└── Dey well; Be well
We should have a wealth tax that is distributed to everyone, instead of taxing consumption. It's the most progressive tax possible, only taxing those with actual excess. It would work in an AI world, easing into everyone having the same amount of power instead of creating AI powered Oligarchs.
That's something I am just learning about. Interesting concept though. Would need some finessing and that goes for any sort of general consensus that is reached.
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└── Dey well; Be well
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└── Dey well; Be well
We might need one eventually. If we really see a population decline in a couple decades, it's possible they could offset each other to an extent.
Either we go artificial womb (not sure the proper word), or take better care of parents.
Nontech human is destroyed soon. To add more context, the futuristic human is the programmer who can just program everything he wants to replace current manual systems. Human is then the architect, ai is the labor.
Pre AI, we are already in a hyper-capitalistic world. In an AI driven world coupled with robotics and possibly clean renewable energy, capitalism(Value and Value creation) is going to be broken. I envision that there will be violence when one system is overtaken by another. Hopefully, a post economic society. UBI assumes that money$ and its value, would be that unit to be exchanged in the future. No, its not going to be bitcoin either. Of course I wouldn't know what it is, but I'm looking forward to the future +
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I 100% agree with this sentiment, though its not clear to me at all how close we are.
In general though, advanced automation like AI will disrupt jobs, and unlike previous times, you cannot educate yourself out of a superior intelligence taking your job.
This is not about moving your manual work to another segment where different manual work is not viable to automate economically: its about your mental abilities being insufficient to produce value in the economy, full stop.
If that doesn't scare you, I'm not sure what will. However, its not clear to me yet if all this coding LLM hype will end up destroying coding jobs, or creating debugging jobs.
In general though, advanced automation like AI will disrupt jobs, and unlike previous times, you cannot educate yourself out of a superior intelligence taking your job.
This is not about moving your manual work to another segment where different manual work is not viable to automate economically: its about your mental abilities being insufficient to produce value in the economy, full stop.
If that doesn't scare you, I'm not sure what will. However, its not clear to me yet if all this coding LLM hype will end up destroying coding jobs, or creating debugging jobs.
Hear hear ...its not clear to me yet if all this coding LLM hype will end up destroying coding jobs, or creating debugging job.
I feel it is doors losing and others opening in the interim for creatives/devs who level up.
└── Dey well; Be well
I feel it is doors losing and others opening in the interim for creatives/devs who level up.
└── Dey well; Be well
A program similar to the 1930s WPA seems far more likely and logical than UBI. There is and will continue to be work that an AI bot on a computer can’t do, and frankly the public sympathy for highly-paid white collar employees losing their jobs isn’t high.
Sam Altman had been pushing hard for UBI back in his VC days [0] He also pushed hard for AI governance, which people probably just laughed off [1][2]. Shortly after those blogs on the dangers of AI, he decides to set up OpenAI.
Dude doesn't go to the trouble of convincing people of his political stances. He just sells the poison and waits for people to manufacture the antidote he's been preaching for all along.
[0] https://blog.samaltman.com/technology-and-wealth-inequality [1] https://blog.samaltman.com/machine-intelligence-part-1 [2] https://blog.samaltman.com/machine-intelligence-part-2
Dude doesn't go to the trouble of convincing people of his political stances. He just sells the poison and waits for people to manufacture the antidote he's been preaching for all along.
[0] https://blog.samaltman.com/technology-and-wealth-inequality [1] https://blog.samaltman.com/machine-intelligence-part-1 [2] https://blog.samaltman.com/machine-intelligence-part-2
UBI is a dystopian hellscape. If you think otherwise you haven’t thought it through.
UBI is a step towards utopia. If you think otherwise, you stopped thinking too soon.
Ubi is an unrealistic utopia on mutiple levels (from basic math to social dynamics). Go educate yourself please.
Sure. Where does the money come from if nobody is working?
@billy99k Great question; funding UBI is the crux of the debate.
In Nigeria, I’ve seen industries like taxi services get upended by apps like Uber and Bolt, leaving union leaders/cabals scrambling for the scraps.
AI could amplify this, automating jobs faster than new ones emerge.
One idea is taxing automated systems—say, a levy on AI-driven platforms or robots replacing workers.
This could redistribute wealth without assuming zero employment. For example, Nigeria’s government already taxes digital platforms; scaling that to fund UBI isn’t unthinkable.
What do you think about targeting automation profits specifically?
└── Yarn me
In Nigeria, I’ve seen industries like taxi services get upended by apps like Uber and Bolt, leaving union leaders/cabals scrambling for the scraps.
AI could amplify this, automating jobs faster than new ones emerge.
One idea is taxing automated systems—say, a levy on AI-driven platforms or robots replacing workers.
This could redistribute wealth without assuming zero employment. For example, Nigeria’s government already taxes digital platforms; scaling that to fund UBI isn’t unthinkable.
What do you think about targeting automation profits specifically?
└── Yarn me
This will work in the short term, but over time, less and less companies will want to fund something that will be taxed at such a high rate.
I also think that if this much tax money is going to enable people to not work, the people paying taxes should have more control over how the money is used.
If health care is universal, more control over foods consumed risky health-related activities.
I also think that if this much tax money is going to enable people to not work, the people paying taxes should have more control over how the money is used.
If health care is universal, more control over foods consumed risky health-related activities.
> This will work in the short term, but over time, less and less companies will want to fund something that will be taxed at such a high rate.
It only needs to work in the short term for the idea of "the for-profit company" to go the way of the buggy whip, and then we can move on to more interesting things.
It only needs to work in the short term for the idea of "the for-profit company" to go the way of the buggy whip, and then we can move on to more interesting things.
With AI/robots doing all the work, money can be created and distributed based on production and logistical efficiency.
@t-3 We share similar logic.
I would much rather have Capitalism and own my own work bots, thanks.
That's not precluded. With enough robots, everyone could own their own means of production. Centralized distribution is probably the most resource-efficient when the system has enough insight, but for more dynamic environments a distributed model with local exchange would be ideal.
Reminds me of the lives of the great philosophers, who, in order to freely contemplate, owned slaves to do the necessary work
Plenty of people will be working, just not everyone will make the jump to a post-AI society, especially older folks I imagine.
I seem to remember a Star Trek episode (not sure which series) where a character is talking about how they’ve evolved past the need for money. Badly paraphrased, and maybe just as badly remembered, but my thought at the time was that if no one is getting paid, how do get low level crew members to sign on? I’d much rather be an officer than scrubbing torpedo tubes.
Isn't it that you sign up for Star Fleet, go through school, take tests, and then get assigned to a position?
Not everybody is in Star Fleet, so I assume people want the ability to travel the stars and they'd be happy enough scrubbing torpedo tubes.
Not everybody is in Star Fleet, so I assume people want the ability to travel the stars and they'd be happy enough scrubbing torpedo tubes.
@unnamed76ri Haha, I love the Star Trek nod! Their post-money world sounds great, but where I'm from, hustle economy/treet vendors, okada riders, shows how hard it is to imagine no one needing cash.
Even if AI automates a ton, people will still want incentives for less glamorous jobs. Maybe UBI isn’t about scrapping money but ensuring a baseline so folks aren’t stuck scrubbing metaphorical torpedo tubes.
What’s your take—could a partial UBI make “low-level” work more voluntary?
└── Yarn me
Even if AI automates a ton, people will still want incentives for less glamorous jobs. Maybe UBI isn’t about scrapping money but ensuring a baseline so folks aren’t stuck scrubbing metaphorical torpedo tubes.
What’s your take—could a partial UBI make “low-level” work more voluntary?
└── Yarn me
When generations of people are on UBI,and this is all they know, the system starts to require more capital and tax revenue, until it collapses.
I think one other aspect of this system is that if you are getting UBI, you give up your voting rights.
I think one other aspect of this system is that if you are getting UBI, you give up your voting rights.
I don’t know, I won’t claim expertise on this subject. But it feels like any kind of UBI risks creating a permanent underclass of people much like current welfare programs that carry no incentive to get off said programs do.
Every economic system has its flaws and can be exploited. Capitalism has been responsible for lifting billions of people out of poverty. But it’s also been corrupted by cronyism.
The coming AI revolution will likely cause capitalism’s issues to be more pronounced.
Every economic system has its flaws and can be exploited. Capitalism has been responsible for lifting billions of people out of poverty. But it’s also been corrupted by cronyism.
The coming AI revolution will likely cause capitalism’s issues to be more pronounced.
"AI will take all of the jobs!"
"People will still have to scrub the torpedo tubes!"
How are these not mutually exclusive?
"People will still have to scrub the torpedo tubes!"
How are these not mutually exclusive?
Well the first quote is something you made up. And the second is a paraphrase of something I wrote. So yes, mutually exclusive.
How about we tag-team the dull tasks and the thrilling ones? We’ll scrub those tubes and dive into an exciting starship project. Welcome to our socialistic tech society!
2022 "We need to do a socialism bc climate change!"
2025 "We need to do a socialism bc AI!"
TBC IMO human caused climate change and other forms of environmental damage are very real and worthy of our best solutions, but the idea that collectivism solves environment, that collectivist govts would never decide to damage the environment in pursuit of short term aims is laughable.
TBC IMO human caused climate change and other forms of environmental damage are very real and worthy of our best solutions, but the idea that collectivism solves environment, that collectivist govts would never decide to damage the environment in pursuit of short term aims is laughable.
.... which is not really about UBI, which the post is about.
@vouwfietsman Staying on topic;had any thoughts as to what happens if/when this occurs?
I think about it a lot I won't lie. I know certain jobs will be around for a while but, the general populace will be a different matter.
└── Yarn me; Lets talk, I'm genuinely interested
I think about it a lot I won't lie. I know certain jobs will be around for a while but, the general populace will be a different matter.
└── Yarn me; Lets talk, I'm genuinely interested
Eventually, at some point. Most of industry would have been disrupted/automated.
There should be a working group of the major players/stake holders in the space working out a model of how that would work.
I work in tech and I don't see that happening for another decade and half or so.
Care to ruminate?
└── Dey well