Ask HN: Will Tesla ever be truly self driving?
5 comments
In their present sensor stack - unlikely in my opinion. It isn’t possible to drive when you can’t see and their cameras are frequently blinded during sunset and sunrise.
Humans cope by moving their head, sunglasses, visors to block the sun or wherever it takes to see well enough in these conditions.
Maybe Tesla could think out of the box for their future models since they’re adamant on no LIDAR. Given the current cost of LIDAR is affordable, in my mind it makes sense to include LIDAR. Their current models though will not get to L4 driving.
Either way, many of their decisions make me question their judgement about safety of their passengers and the general public.
Humans cope by moving their head, sunglasses, visors to block the sun or wherever it takes to see well enough in these conditions.
Maybe Tesla could think out of the box for their future models since they’re adamant on no LIDAR. Given the current cost of LIDAR is affordable, in my mind it makes sense to include LIDAR. Their current models though will not get to L4 driving.
Either way, many of their decisions make me question their judgement about safety of their passengers and the general public.
Assuming you mean level 4 or 5:
Impossible to know. We don't know how many surprises need to be resolved until anyone has done it. The possibility space is so wide the company may go bankrupt before it gets there on the higher-difficulty estimates of timescales.
On the short-timescale estimates, the only reason I'm confident Tesla don't already level 4 in an alpha version, is that Musk would've shown off an uncut 54 hour video of it crossing the USA from just south of the Canadian border by Vancouver to Key West in Florida if he'd been able to.
Impossible to know. We don't know how many surprises need to be resolved until anyone has done it. The possibility space is so wide the company may go bankrupt before it gets there on the higher-difficulty estimates of timescales.
On the short-timescale estimates, the only reason I'm confident Tesla don't already level 4 in an alpha version, is that Musk would've shown off an uncut 54 hour video of it crossing the USA from just south of the Canadian border by Vancouver to Key West in Florida if he'd been able to.
No. For multiple reasons, some not widely discussed, like lack of product support infrastructure, not enough geospatial data, etc. It's not just the cameras that are a showstopper.
Do you mean the antropomorphic Tesla robot?
Either someone else will do it, likely better ... or, if they don't, I can hedge that position with buying a drivers cars ... (shocker: some of us actually enjoy driving ... and lane assist, cruise control, traffic stop/go - which have been available forever - are more than enough if one is tired).
For some people, FSD is solving a non-existent problem.
Then we turn to Robotaxis ... you understand that if it ever does get off the ground, they'll be trying to extract as much value out of it as possible.
It won't be cheaper than Uber or alternatives, they'll pitch the price below initially, and then it will be equal or above and Uber price as they do the snakeoil pitch of "all the added value!!!" you'll be receiving, when in fact it'll just be an equivalent experience to an Uber (broadly speaking) while extracting human taxi wages and giving them to Mr Stank-Like-Old-Musk.