Allybag · HackerTrans

w zeszłym miesiącudiscuss

Well, it might be a good decision but I think the possibility of Standard and Poor one day being worth trillions of dollars more than if they had included three companies a year or two earlier than when they inevitably join the index is absolutely zero.

Allybag

4 miesiące temudiscuss

What about playing chess on a computer?

Allybag

5 miesięcy temudiscuss

Well how many side projects did you ship last year? I’ve written small programs in the last few months over a weekend that would have taken me a month to do a couple years ago, and they’re better. Not in terms of code quality, but in terms of features I wanted and knew how to implement but couldn’t be bothered, Opus can do in one minute and even if it’s not the optimal implementation it’s completely functional, fine, and costs me almost nothing.

Allybag

2 lata temudiscuss

If you mean as a percentage of my investment, it’s about 1000%, but I can’t scale up further, so it doesn’t grow exponentially. If I increased my stake tenfold I wouldn’t be making more bets or more money. It’s like with market makers or Renaissance Technology, I’m limited by the market opportunity so the roi or sharpe ratio or whatever don’t really make sense.

Allybag

2 lata temudiscuss

Yep, atm exclusively on Betfair but trying to expand.

Allybag

2 lata temudiscuss

To give some details, the main betting exchange I use is Betfair, a UK betting company part of the same group that own Fanduel, and I place bets for or against outcomes in the last half an hour before the start. For example, you can back a team to win meaning you make a certain amount if the team wins, but you can also lay a team, meaning that if that team doesn’t win (another team wins or it’s a draw) you win that bet, with a payout of inverse the odds. There is no crypto involved, just GBP, and Betfair is a multibillion dollar company paying taxes and subject to the law and the UK regulating bodies. I have a model to predict short term movement in the odds, which is not amazing but enough better than random that it can overcome the fees and spread between the back and lay odds and be profitable.

Any further questions?

Allybag

2 lata temudiscuss

It’s automated, I bet on a betting exchange which has an API, so the bets get placed without any input from me.

As it’s a betting exchange they don’t care if you win or lose as you aren’t winning money from them, but they start to take steeper cuts of your profits if you’re a regular winner above some threshold that a random punter is very unlikely to hit.

Allybag

2 lata temudiscuss

I am a professional automated sports gambler, and I win basically every day, and the handful of losing days I have per quarter are significantly smaller than the average daily win.

If you place enough bets (I make about 15k bets each day that are matched) that have a positive expected value your chances of a losing day become pretty low.

For example, I had a losing day on Christmas Day, but was only able to place about 500 bets as it was such a big holiday that there were almost no events.

Allybag

2 lata temudiscuss

I think “regular users” are very unlikely to use any sort of external drive, other than maybe some sort of cloud service.

Allybag

3 lata temudiscuss

Ah, indeed, sorry about that. I’d missed that part and just remembered him saying they were similar.

Allybag

3 lata temudiscuss

That’s not really a fair nit at all, he just commented that the two formats were similar, one of them must necessarily have come before the other, but they both exist right now.

Allybag

3 lata temudiscuss

You could respond a little less aggressively.

This guy isn’t writing a thesis, he’s posting an internet comment.

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