I feel like this begs for a careful analysis, we could probably drop a dozen more reasons as to why demand in devs and perhaps even in # of lines of code might plateau or decline in the near future, without even mentioning AI at any point.
And the invention of AGI will have the same impact as the electricity, i mean, they're both inventions, right ? I can't wait for all these billions of new full time jobs coming to replace the current ones.
Farmers couldn't be replaced by low skill labor because they are low skill.
Farmer didn't stop existing, but we went from 80% of the population farming is to 1-10%. If farming automation had happened in 1800 when 80% of the workforce was working in agriculture, it'd have been a cataclysm.
I'm pretty sure there is a slight widespread lack of respect for software engineers, mainly offset by their high salaries. Wait and see once vibecoding becomes the new norm.
And for software engineers, yeah, automation will wreck their jobs and their paychecks because software engineering's higher speed limit in efficiency is the speed of light, not a tractor's.
Hi ! Thanks for ARC it's lots of fun. Did you think about expanding ARC beyond the current 32x32 relatively low dsl depth format ? Do you think there's anything to gain from it ?
I had never thought about how close perception and reasoning are from a computational point of view, the parts of ARC that we call "reasoning" seem to just be operations that the human brain is not predisposed to solve easily.
A very interesting corollary is that the first AGIs might be way better thinkers than humans by default because of how they can seamlessly integrate new programs into their cognition in a perfect symbiosis with computers.