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asafira

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Rodney Brooks' Technology Predictions Scorecard

rodneybrooks.com
2 points·by asafira·6 miesięcy temu·0 comments

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asafira
·8 miesięcy temu·discuss
Isn't there TRT that doesn't impact your endogenous production? (HCG, SERMs)
asafira
·8 miesięcy temu·discuss
There is large-enough consensus on this drug for its main use cases (treating diabetes and obesity), but more importantly for this conversation: it's actually quite common for drugs to get new indications after their initial one --- at which point, there might be a new, broader consensus on what the drug is good for.

Clinical trials are designed to treat a very specific subclass of individuals; pharmaceutical companies very carefully choose that subclass in an attempt to help ensure the clinical trials are successful, which is a combination of the following:

- Positive, statistically-significant results. - FDA approval with those results. - Insurance companies willing to pay for the given treatment. - A decent-sized addressable market.

Examples of drugs/medical technologies later getting other indications: - Minoxidil was a drug that only later got its approval to be used as a hair loss treatment; there are currently clinical trials for a more "advanced" minoxidil oral pill for this use case. - Re: GLP-1s: Tirzepatide later got an indication that it effectively treats sleep apnea. There are very many other clinical trials ongoing for GLP-1s, but perhaps most recently, Semaglutide (ozempic) failed to show statistical significance as a treatment for Alzheimer's. - The Galleri blood screening/test. The initial indication they are going for is folk who are at highest risk for cancer (I believe that's individuals between the ages of 50 and 70); however, that's not to say it would be bad for individuals younger or older. But, this is a way to help ensure the earliest product has a successful outcome.

These are ones I know off the top of my head, but I suspect an LLM can give several more examples.