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Atlantic 'cold blob' likely caused by weakening AMOC near a tipping point

phys.org
6 points·by btilly·w zeszłym miesiącu·0 comments

[untitled]

1 points·by btilly·8 miesięcy temu·0 comments

comments

btilly
·18 dni temu·discuss
That apparent belief is common. People with current access to power, seldom anticipate what might happen in the future if it is turned against them.
btilly
·19 dni temu·discuss
That is who it was created for.
btilly
·19 dni temu·discuss
Tor is not for criminals. It's for you and me.

No. Tor is for the CIA. It won't work for them unless we use it as well. Criminals also find it useful.

It's easy to verify this. Tor was originally written by Paul Syverson, Michael G. Reed, and David Goldschlag. While all three were working at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory.
btilly
·19 dni temu·discuss
Not just minimize threats, but often to maximize their power.

Lobbyists do not just try to convince a politician that X is a good idea. Lobbyists give the politician money to introduce already drafted legislation, and then give other politicians money to support it. And if they can get the legislation passed in one place, they'll try it again.

The result is that suspiciously similar legislation appears in many places close in time, due to it being pushed by particular interests.
btilly
·25 dni temu·discuss
Yes, there is always a path to a problem. Even random monkeys on a keyboard can write a security exploit. Random monkeys with guidance from a knowledgeable human will do it much faster.

The goal shouldn't be to make problems impossible. It is to adjust the ratio between problems and successes.

You can also create a meta. "How much do I trust the user?" When you see the user trying to manipulate towards security, distrust the user and apply rules more strictly. If the user simply acts like a normal developer, just be a useful developer tool. Including fixing security holes when appropriate.
btilly
·25 dni temu·discuss
How does this make the model useless? It finds and fixes the security hole. It can even write a test that verifies that the fix didn't break things. But it deliberately doesn't reveal the fact that it was a security issue that was fixed.

Seems useful to me. But more useful for defenders than attackers.
btilly
·25 dni temu·discuss
What I suggested would allow it to fix the issues. Just not write a test that was directly usable as a security exploit.

This doesn't stop attackers from being able to leverage the analysis. But it does make the tool more useful for defenders than attackers. Which is the best that you can hope for from a useful tool.
btilly
·25 dni temu·discuss
I don't believe that this is unfixable. Just have an internal verbal loop of, "Is this a security issue?" The thought that it potentially is should trigger both a high priority on getting it right, and an unwillingness to write a test case demonstrating the security angle of it.

In other words do not put a guard rail on the idea of security. Put a guard rail on what it does after encountering the thought that it might be revealing a security issue. Which takes good judgment. But judgment of a kind that this model apparently already had.
btilly
·29 dni temu·discuss
This is a take on Elon that I cannot agree with.

I get it. I know how much people want to hate him. And how much fuel he has given for that.

But he's very talented, and really puts in the work. According to people I personally know who work with him closely, he's the real deal.

Doesn't stop him from being an asshole. But you get the bad with the good.
btilly
·29 dni temu·discuss
So now that Tesla is clearly crashing, fold it into the more successful SpaceX and get to roll the dice again?

Classic Elon. This is the same thing that he did to rescue a failing Solar City by making it part of Tesla.

It takes a lot to get where Elon is. But it also takes a willingness to double down over and over again on big bets. And he himself will be the first to admit that the most likely outcome of his strategy was bankruptcy.
btilly
·30 dni temu·discuss
Just so that nobody jumps in with what I first wanted to jump in with, this estimate was done with the assumption that Elon Musk's Starship is built, works as advertised, and launch costs are at the lower end of the projected range.

It wasn't an order of magnitude more because of how expensive rocket launches currently are.

(I'm glad that I read the article before arguing this one...)
btilly
·w zeszłym miesiącu·discuss
How does almost everyone pay for food at the grocery store? If stores don't have a good way to get money from customers, how do they pay the next step up the line?
btilly
·w zeszłym miesiącu·discuss
Yes. Read through https://www.the-scientist.com/universe-25-experiment-69941 to see that, given a good enough environment, mice can wipe themselves out. Here is a particularly telling passage:

Eventually Universe 25 took another disturbing turn. Mice born into the chaos couldn’t form normal social bonds or engage in complex social behaviors such as courtship, mating, and pup-rearing. Instead of interacting with their peers, males compulsively groomed themselves; females stopped getting pregnant. Effectively, says Ramsden, they became “trapped in an infantile state of early development,” even when removed from Universe 25 and introduced to “normal” mice. Ultimately, the colony died out. “There’s no recovery, and that’s what was so shocking to [Calhoun],” says Ramsden.

Like the mice, our population is going into reverse. And that description of behavior, looks awfully prescient when I compare to humans on social media today...
btilly
·w zeszłym miesiącu·discuss
Here is what it actually means.

When the economy is growing, investment makes sense. Why put your money under the mattress when it could be out there, working for you?

When the reverse happens, investment stops making sense. Why risk your money when it becomes worth more while it is sitting under your mattress?

But stopping investment does not just mean stopping speculative investment. It means stopping investment in other things as well. Like maintenance. This guarantees that things are going to become worse over time. Which is a feedback loop that makes investment even less worthwhile.

This has happened in the USA before. The last time is called the Great Depression. Read through accounts of what it was like. Would you like to go through that now?

History also teaches that the longer it is between economic setbacks, the worse the next one tends to be. We've gone far longer since a depression than at any point in history. Our next one is likely to be correspondingly more terrible.
btilly
·w zeszłym miesiącu·discuss
I could rant about the stupidity of spending fossil fuels, to grow biofuels, for no net gain in energy. But with a definite cost in engine wear.

That said, like Democracy, capitalism is the worst economic system, except all of the others that have been tried. And there have been enough alternate experiments that I wouldn't want to literally bet my life on the next one working better.
btilly
·w zeszłym miesiącu·discuss
Populations do not tend to grow to equilibrium and then stop. They tend to overgrow their environment, outstrip resources, and then collapse.

The result may not be extinction. But losing 90% of the human population won't feel that different if you're living through it.

A relevant book recommend, https://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Societies-Choose-Succeed-Rev.... It walks through a variety of past examples of human societies that went through this. There is no reason to believe that our current world-wide society will fare better.
btilly
·w zeszłym miesiącu·discuss
The other 99% is even more dependent on the machine than the top 1%. They can build themselves reinforced bunkers, just in case. What is your plan if, say, the food distribution infrastructure breaks down?

Does that sound like an extremely unlikely outcome? Back in 2008, we came within hours of credit cards stopping working. Projections say that if credit cards stop working, food distribution breaks down. Mass hunger is not far behind that. And there is nothing like mass hunger to destroy a society.

Esoteric problems in financial markets have real world consequences. We've gone nearly a century since the last real demonstration of that. Don't discount the possibility that the next demonstration will be within your lifetime. And in our more interconnected world, it's likely to be a lot worse.
btilly
·w zeszłym miesiącu·discuss
Most power outages are local, not regional. And cellphone towers will work at a surprising distance.

Therefore my experience has been that cellphones tend to remain up, even though the power is down.
btilly
·w zeszłym miesiącu·discuss
The first thing that I did was zoomed out, surely Shakespeare wrote about something in the New World?

No. It is amazing how small his world was. He was born and grew to adulthood, in the world where Spanish dominance kept England from attempting to explore the world. While Jamestown was settled before he died, he never wrote about it.

I've updated my understanding of how (un)aware people were in this era of the larger world. I have no idea why I would have ever expected otherwise.
btilly
·w zeszłym miesiącu·discuss
Wonderful strategy.

Take something that someone else said. Come out swinging at a distortion of what they said. Then if they call you on it, say, "You seem very defensive and angry." Thereby dismissing what they said without having to engage in any self-reflection.

You'll always be right in your own mind.