But in a world where AI is able to both produce math theorems, and figure out practical applications for them, human understanding has minimal practical value to society.
We have examples of AI producing theorems but there is no evidence that AI will be able to find all of the practical applications of mathematics, at least not any time soon.
As I understand it, most of the theorem proving work done by AI today consists entirely of “glue code” style work: combining a bunch of different known results to prove a new result. This is great for those who desire completeness in the mathematical project but it’s often outside the areas of interest for mathematicians who are pursuing “big idea” problems whose solutions likely require development of entire new branches of mathematics. One famous example of such was Fermat’s Last Theorem.
They got into their field because they love the beauty of mathematics… As someone who isn't a mathematician, the main value I get out of math is its practical applications in science and technology
I have some sad news for you. 99% of the work mathematicians do has no immediate application, nor even an obvious path toward application in the near future. You mentioned cryptography, so for an example consider number theory: no apparent practical applications, going back thousands of years to the time of Euclid and earlier.
It’s been religion, philosophy, and recreation that have provided the motivations to study mathematics all these years, not applications. Applications have almost always followed long after the development of the pure mathematical theory. For number theory, that was the development of cryptography during WW2, millennia after the ancients laid those foundations.
Most unfortunately, it’s the truth value and the understanding which drive applications of mathematics, not the proof work itself. If the AI revolution decapitates the institution of mathematics which produces the understanding, and is unable to replace it, then the applications will cease as well.
Carbon dioxide is produced as a metabolic waste product from exercise. Any sort of fat-burning you want to do is limited by the rate at which you can exhale CO2. This is why vigorous exercise is accompanied by heavy breathing. This includes not only cardiovascular training but also weight training. Lifting heavy weights will have you breathing very hard!
Unfortunately, if you don’t lift heavy (or if you use electrical stimulation that’s mild enough to sleep) then you’re not going to put your muscles into hypertrophy, so you won’t gain muscle mass either.
Adding pumps isn’t the same as adding battery storage. More batteries means more peak power. Peak power for hydro is limited by the peak power output of the turbines, not the dam capacity.
Overcast winter days tend to be very calm as well. These are periods of minimal solar+wind generation and maximal heating demand.
Having a grid with no baseload generation and only storage is going to spell disaster during extended cold+calm periods. Rolling blackouts when it’s -30C outside…
I don't know of they fail to see this because they are blinded by their hope or there is a more complex viewpoint I'm missing.
There is. "We want to escape" is a very different viewpoint from "we want to liberate the masses."
Freeing yourself from the social media is definitely doable. Depending on how firmly engaged you are at the moment, it can vary in difficulty between fait accompli and moderately challenging. It's obviously possible for anyone to do themselves.
Liberating the masses? Morpheus said it best:
"The Matrix is a system, Neo. That system is our enemy. But when you're inside, you look around, what do you see? Businessmen, teachers, lawyers, carpenters. The very minds of the people we are trying to save. But until we do, these people are still a part of that system and that makes them our enemy. You have to understand, most of these people are not ready to be unplugged. And many of them are so inured, so hopelessly dependent on the system, that they will fight to protect it."
We're talking about Ontario. I live in Ontario. The sky is overcast 8 months of the year. We're not building enough storage to charge for 4 months and drain for 8.
Doesn’t have to be a naked scam though. Dario could be caught in the dictator’s dilemma: he was a believer at first but now he’s on the tiger’s back so he dare not get off.
The positives aren’t there though, beyond what people are already using it for (pair programming aid, fancy auto complete, refactoring tool). Hence the article’s thesis: the doom justifies the valuation.
What else is there? The product as delivered today doesn't come anywhere near a justification for these valuations. All of it is built on an expectation of future capabilities, and that's where the Dario-penned doom papers come in.
Technically, it's the time discounted rate of future profits that determine valuations
Close, it's the time-discounted expectation of future returns. This seems related to future profits but it need not be. Historically, stocks tend to perform poorly after IPOs. There's no guarantee that (say) Anthropic's stock price would ever recover after a post-IPO drop.
The recent attempts by Anthropic et al. to circumvent the usual rules for inclusion in indices have raised red flags all over the place, with many calling it a naked attempt to raid everyone's pension funds for hundreds of billions in ill-gotten capital.
people at Anthropic (and OpenAI, for that matter!) really, genuinely do believe
The same could have been said (and has been said) about other tech company employees for all sorts of other reasons in alignment with those companies' goals. Don't you remember how much people used to laugh at Tesla employees for worshipping Elon Musk as some kind of god of engineering and entrepreneurial genius? Or Apple employees in the Steve Jobs reality distortion field?
I would have thought at this point that it'd be well known that the employees of all cult-like tech companies can't be trusted to make a sober evaluation of their companies' justified valuation. We can talk about conflicts of interest and we'd barely be getting started! How about biased selection by hiring managers for the most fervent believers in the company's mission from the get-go?
The question is not whether AI is useful. It is useful, full stop.
The question is whether AI is useful enough to justify valuations that dwarf the GDP of all but the top 20 countries in the world. As it stands right now, it's not even close! The leaked OpenAI financials put these AI companies in the same profitability territory as utilities, with zero justification for these crazy valuations.
Yes, and those dud candidates waste the company precious time and money, as well as wasting the candidate’s time.
If you have to interview more than a handful of candidates to hire for a non-specialist role then something is seriously broken in either your hiring system or hiring for those positions in general.
The strategy of RTSes is strategy of big plans and high level abstraction
That's not true in all RTSes. Take StarCraft, for example, and there are plenty of games on record that were decided not just by 1 unit, but by 1 attack from 1 unit. There are Zerg players, for example, who have developed a reputation for creating havoc after getting a single zergling (the smallest and cheapest attacking unit) into their opponent's base. A single shot from a Protoss reaver can mean the difference between taking minimal damage and losing half of your workers (and subsequently the game).
If your espresso is bitter and sour, you're getting uneven extraction. One reason for this includes channeling: water encountering a tightly-packed puck and boring a hole through it or even lifting the puck so that water flows around it. Channeling over-extracts the areas of the puck that experience a high flow rate and under-extracts the areas that experience low flow.
Channeling is usually caused by too fine of a grind. If your machine (I'm assuming it's a pump machine) is pegging the pressure gauge at max (and dumping excess pressure internally) and your coffee tastes unevenly extracted, you may want to try grinding coarser. Not only will this reduce channeling, it'll result in less fines in the cup, also reducing bitterness.
The best thing I ever did for my espresso was to give up on the rigid rules I was first taught as a beginner. I don't time my shots, I don't use fixed brew ratios, I do everything by feel (watching the pressure build and the coffee flow) and taste. I do use a scale (for weighing beans per dose and weighing shots for repeatability). I dial in by adjusting the coffee output rather than fiddling with the grind. I only set the grind once to get a reasonable pressure (6-9 bars, no maxing out or dropping off), then fine-tune the gram output.
The biggest insight I gained from this freestyle approach is that the standard 2:1 ratio is altogether wrong for most of the light-roasted coffees you get from specialty coffee roasters. They simply will not extract properly with that small amount of water. Grinding coarser and pulling a longer shot (sometimes called a "turbo shot") gives you a much better result.
it stands to reason that OpenAI could turn off their R&D, marketing, hype jedi, legal departments and just sell GPT9.999 and turn a profit.
That rests on 2 assumptions:
1) That inference on OpenAI's frontier models is actually cost competitive with open models. Their high SG&A suggests otherwise.
2) That slashing R&D won't lead to a marketshare collapse when everyone (remaining) moves to Anthropic to get on their frontier models. All evidence suggests otherwise again, with Anthropic already exerting enormous competitive pressure on OpenAI's marketshare.
I think OpenAI is in a terribly tenuous position: they're getting squeezed from Anthropic (on the high end) and open models on the low end. A lot of companies in a lot of industries suffered this fate. Getting stuck in the middle is not a good thing!