> You would have bet the farm on the undervalued bet on the prediction markets.
This is what's frustrating about sites like 538. They have Biden as an 87% chance to win. A betting site I frequent has Biden's winning odds as -180 (1.556 for Europeans). If they really believe the accuracy of their models, they should literally be betting the farm on a Biden win.
Real estate prices are unlikely to drop too much since they're one of the few ways locals can maintain a store of value (if a relatively non-liquid one).
In horse racing where the bets are done via parimutuel[1], the challenge is that there's an upper bound on how much you can "invest" in a given wager without changing the odds. This makes it less likely that an expert will seek outside investment unless their model has them betting "wide" (lots of small bets vs. a few large ones).
Do you have a site/mailing list where we can sign up for alerts regarding launch of the Android app? I'd like to try this, but do not have an iPhone.
Without having tried the app, my biggest complaint with apps such as these is that they recommend recipes/meals (great!) but cannot take into account certain things that I won't eat (tomatoes, most cheeses, low preference for fish). Does Lyle take these things into account when making meal recommendations?
I was merely disproving the fact that a motivated population with rifles can't fight and (in the case of Vietnam) defeat the world's largest military. The jury is still out on Iraq/Afghanistan.
This is what's frustrating about sites like 538. They have Biden as an 87% chance to win. A betting site I frequent has Biden's winning odds as -180 (1.556 for Europeans). If they really believe the accuracy of their models, they should literally be betting the farm on a Biden win.