I have a specific trading style that is serving me well so far. I bet on select stocks and SP500 every day in the 3 hours before open and close. I calculate the signal strength by looking at volatility, price action and other factors. I normally bet when probability is >75% and <95%, and the signal is above 7 or 8. Returns are calculated based on probability, strenght and upside profit %. I'm planning to expand my logic with skipping bets on macro-economic events and other factors that could impact on probability. Not financial advice, read the discalimer first.
Correct. The tool is a work in progress and I am focusing on the signal algorithm at the moment. The idea is that the probability as traded on PM doesn't accurately represent statistical probability. I have added many of my observations to it to basically capture opportunities in the 3 hours before resolution, for probabilities between 70 and 95% that show potential higher than what the market is trading.