Not a positive effect. Creative solutions are one thing, but the best creative solutions come when you are thinking clearly, not overtired and just trying anything.
True, anyone can argue anything, but sleep deprivation is pretty low on the pain scale once you have kids. You discover that the child will bring sleep deprivation to the parents for months on end. But, it isn't torture, because this is what you signed up to do. You volunteered to lose sleep.
On the other hand, once you have teenagers you discover that they would claim confiscating their iPhone for an entire weekend is torture.
I would, honestly not be able to treat it as lottery tickets and would rationalize it into the compensation at a higher rate than it is probably worth. Just being real.
"It is instructive to consider pair programming, which is a fairly popular practice and adds an overhead of 100% to all development time, as the baseline for code review effort."
I couldn't disagree with this line more. I've frequently seen it halve the amount of development time.