There is a branch of math dedicated to (among other things) truthfully estimating the waiting time, called queueing theory. I wonder why it wasn't mentioned in the article.
I'd argue the money spent for yachts and donations were a drop in the ocean compared to what they burned via Alameda and lack of whatsoever accounting.
I see the vision here, which the top commenters (sorry, couldn't read all of them) seems to miss. This should be a moonshot bet on the next generation of user experience. People are complaining about apps, but the idea here should be to make apps irrelevant as a concept. You don't need "apps", you need data feedable to LLM and a visualization toolkit for presenting results. And maybe some tools to manually wrangle the data when precise manipulation is required.
On paper, this sounds amazing. Like "out of sci-fi books" amazing. The caveat, though? I very much doubt Google has the capacity to execute this properly. And we'll get another half-baked attempt at reskinning Chromium and/or Android.
I mean, inference engine might need to get some tweaks, to support whatever compute is available. But then, if you put a few terabytes of disk for swap, and replace RAM to bigger sticks if possible, it should work? Slowly, of course, but there is no reason it should not to.
> They will be, and that moment is not that far off.
It's here, right now. I'm running quantized Qwen and Gemma on a decent, but three years old gaming rig (think RTX 3080 12GB and 32 GB RAM). Yes, it's slow, it has a small context window. But it can (given a proper harness) run through my trip photos and categorize them. It can OCR receipts and summarize spendings. It can answer simple questions, analyze code and even write code when little context is required. Probably I could get a half-decent autocomplete out of it, if I bother with VS Code integration. "128 GB VRAM on a MacBook Pro or a Strix Halo" is already a minimum viable setup for agentic coding, I think.
> And then we'll have the equilibrium we already have with the "classic cloud": you either self-host or pay for flexibility and speed.
Currently, it works exactly the other way. The cloud versions are orders of magnitude cheaper than self hosting, because sharing can utilize servers much more efficiently. Company can spend half a million bucks on a rig running GLM 5.1, and get data security, flexibility and lack of censorship, but oh it's so expensive compared to Anthropic per-seat plans.
> although the real cleverness is in the testcase, which we have not made public
What is the point of keeping it private? I'd bet feeding this patch to Opus and asking to look for specific TOCTOU issue fixed by the patch will make it come up with a testcase sooner or later.
No embargo exists (or could possibly exist) in the first place.
Linux is open source, so every patch fixing the security bug is immediately visible to everyone. There is no workaround to that by the very design how the kernel is developed. The "embargo" people talking about is the rather stupid notion that if people keep their mouth shut and not write "THIS IS A LPE" straight in the patch description, everyone can pretend vulnerability is not leaked until the "official" message in the mailing list is sent.
This approach might have been defensible before, but in LLM era, when people have automated pipelines feeding diffs straight from the mailing lists to SotA models asking to identify probable security issues fixed by those, it is both stupid and dangerous.
I'm not talking about homebrew bootlegging here. It's large-scale frauds where industrial ethanol (which often contains poisonous amounts of methanol, or _is_ methanol) is mixed with flavorants and colorants to cheaply imitate various hard drinks.
Well, I live in a country with both huge distillation culture and significantly non-zero number of methanol poisonings, and they never happen from home brewing. It's really hard to homebrew/distill methanol in a quantity enough to poison you in an otherwise ethanol solution (which acts as an antidote).
It's so rare this thread is literally the first time I've heard about possibility of methanol poisoning from homebrewing.
Methanol poisonings happen from bootlegging, where someone in the chain of supply sells industrial methanol as an ethanol, because the first one is cheaper, easier to obtain and untaxed.
> This excuse is hollow to me. In an organization of this size, it takes multiple people screwing up for a failure to reach the public, or at least it should.
Only if this is considered a failure.
Native English speakers may not know, but for a very long time (since before automatic translation tools became adequate) pretty much all MSFT docs were machine translated to the user agent language by default. Initially they were as useless as they were hilarious - a true slop before the term was invented.
It's expected for Tether to print when the crypto market cap is growing, because most crypto trades in USDT. So you cannot reliably say what is the cause and what is the consequence here.
Then, if the price was pumped and the liquidity didn't match it, it'd be a perfect target to squeeze (because the market is so highly leveraged), at least one trading firm should've attempted it.