sfblah · HackerTrans

21 dni temudiscuss

Unfortunately most people won't do that, either from ignorance or fear of missing out. Sometime in the next few years the chickens are going to come home to roost on the infinibubble, and I'm not really sure if the US financial system will weather it.

sfblah

24 dni temudiscuss

Yes.

sfblah

25 dni temudiscuss

I switched over to Claude Code. The products are essentially identical. This whole space has been commoditized. Paying $60B for this is idiotic.

sfblah

w zeszłym miesiącudiscuss

I do think AI will eliminate software as a life path for folks like this.

sfblah

w zeszłym miesiącudiscuss

Personally I think those are also symptoms. In my opinion, the cause is:

1. Easy money for far, far, far too long in the US and a complete political unwillingness to take any risk of a recession, no matter the long-term cost required to stave it off. In my mind, this explains the rich-poor gap, the rise of crypto, insane valuations, house-price inflation, the weird delta between US and rest-of-world standard of living/salaries, and probably even the migration crisis.

sfblah

2 miesiące temudiscuss

Honest question: On what basis do people even trade crypto? Like, how would one even decide when to buy and when to sell? Is it just based on looking at the charts? Are there any "fundamentals" (like there are for actual companies) that can be used to make investment decisions? From an outsider's point of view, the whole thing looks like a casino where people bet on random price movements on underlying assets that have no actual value.

sfblah

3 miesiące temudiscuss

With most of these things, people are against state power until they are victimized. It’s a common pattern.

sfblah

3 miesiące temudiscuss

Must be using some strange definition for tech or valuations, because last I'd heard tech was some huge percentage of the S&P 500, and the index has dropped like 10% from its ATH.

sfblah

3 miesiące temudiscuss

I just don't think space is as useful or profitable as people think. Time will tell.

sfblah

4 miesiące temudiscuss

Can you give an example? Because I'm currently unable to understand the point of this product.

sfblah

4 miesiące temudiscuss

Big deal. I had a set of human brain cells playing DOOM in the 1990s.

sfblah

4 miesiące temudiscuss

I generally agree that it's difficult and counterproductive to try to eliminate talented programmers who put together the core of systems and set up the patterns that things like LLMs can emulate.

But, the modal programmer at this point is some person who attended a front-end coding bootcamp for a few months and basically just knows how to chain together CSS selectors and React components. I do think these people are in big trouble.

So, while the core, say, 10% of people I think should remain in the system. This 90% periphery of pretty bad programmers will probably need to move on to other jobs.

sfblah

4 miesiące temudiscuss

What's the best way for a teenager to get involved in one of the projects you maintain? I've been trying to help my kid find an entry point into the industry, and I'm one of those annoying folks who relies on open source but rarely contributes.

sfblah

5 miesięcy temudiscuss

This is my number 1 complaint with iphone, even above battery life with their new crappy 3d effects. I bet these issues have actually cost a bunch of lives, given that people type while driving, and this nonsense makes it far harder. It can't be that hard to do this.

sfblah

5 miesięcy temudiscuss

The installation is straightforward, but the problem comes when you want to connect to the grid, because you have to get it approved by the utility. I'm sure getting a DYI installation approved by the utility is _possible_, but I wouldn't count on it. And, you may not know that you got disapproved until you've made the investment and are sort of screwed.

What I did was install solar with batteries and inverters that have the ability to never export power to the utility. That way I didn't have to tell them or seek their approval.

sfblah

5 miesięcy temudiscuss

The people at the top of the leaderboard aren't particularly attractive in my opinion.

sfblah

5 miesięcy temudiscuss

They would if they could bilk more taxpayer money for it.

sfblah

5 miesięcy temudiscuss

Tesla's high-priced sports cars are the wrong product. The right product is a low-cost car like the BYD cars that aren't legally allowed to be sold in the US. The US has probably already lost the EV war, and Tesla is principally responsible. Everything Musk touches turns to garbage.

sfblah

5 miesięcy temudiscuss

A lot of people _need_ the S&P to stay where it is to keep their standard of living stable. If it drops to a rational valuation (say, 2500-3000), there will be a lot of pain.

sfblah

5 miesięcy temudiscuss

One thing that was unclear to me from the stats cited on the website is whether the quoted 52% reduction in crashes is when FSD is in use, or overall. This matters because people are much more likely to use FSD in situations where driving is easier. So, if the reduction is just during those times, I'm not even sure that would be better than a human driver.

As an example, let's say most people use FSD on straight US Interstate driving, which is very easy. That could artificially make FSD seem safer than it really is.

My prior on this is supervised FSD ought to be safer, so the 52% number kind of surprised me, however it's computed. I would have expected more like a 90-95% reduction in accidents.

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