I'm assuming finding vulnerabilities in open source projects is the hard part and what you need the frontier models for. Writing an exploit given a vulnerability can probably be delegated to less scrupulous models.
In my case, the volume of code is roughly the same. I'm not using the efficiency towards pumping out more code, just using it to be AFK more.
I spend enough time iterating and refining to the point I'm comfortable taking ownership of the outputted code. Perhaps hypocritically, I do mald when people upload code for review that they clearly haven't taken the effort to read through critically.
People with a lower multiplier are either in the minority of developers solving genuinely hard/novel problems or, more likely, they've just not figured out how to tap into AI's potential.
Granted, to your point, a decent chunk of the HN crowd belongs to the former and can't relate to us paycheck stealers.
I won't try to speak for anyone other than myself, but my multiplier is definitely over 1.5x, probably higher than 5x.
I choose to sit on my hands in my freed up time so upper management does not catch on to and exploit this fact. Eventually they will though via overzealous coworkers.
My probably incorrect, uninformed hunch is that users convinced of how AI should act actually end up nerfing its capabilities with their prompts. Essentially dumbing it down to their level, losing out on the wisdom it's gained through training.
Huh. I'd never thought of this. If that is actually meaningfully beneficial, I wonder if they'd design self driving cars with the seats facing backwards, given there's no longer a necessity to look at the road.
(edit: I guess it's more of no-brainer on a train/bus where you don't have a seat belt)
> They can and most likely will release something that vaporises the thin moat you have built around their product.
As they should if they're doing most of the heavy lifting.
And it's not just LLM adjacent startups at risk. LLMs have enabled any random person with a claude code subscription to pole vault over your drying up moat over the course of a weekend.
Say instead of just walking, the man was laying down a net/barricade around the tree. As soon as the man completes the circumference, the squirrel must admit that it has been gone around.
I have very fond memories of playing the Pokemon games, but I always saw the battling aspect as a hurdle to unlocking more of the story/world, which was the true appeal to me. I was content turning my brain off and overleveling my mons. Different strokes, I guess.
I have the exact opposite prediction. LLMs may end up writing most code, but humans will still want to review what's being written. We should instead be making life easier for humans with more verbose syntax since it's all the same to an LLM. Information dense code is fun to write but not so much to read.
I'm assuming finding vulnerabilities in open source projects is the hard part and what you need the frontier models for. Writing an exploit given a vulnerability can probably be delegated to less scrupulous models.