I do fixed point SIMD architecture, and a lot of RISCV core development. I love Rust and do mostly software but have implemented verilog and and core designs as well.
I mean building infrastructure is literally done by private groups the government hires not the government itself. Infantalizing the government as unable to do anything is the biggest myth of the 20th century. When the government did build the roads for the interstate high system they were much cheaper. They cut through any possible regulations and just built them. If government is slow its because we have regulated government to be slow because people would get tremendous power and than plow over large African American communities with roads and rail roads. Its very well documented the speed and brutality that government can move with.
All this to say the government can be fast and efficient mostly because we have an almost infinite number of examples in the US of it doing it.
Well I mean not from the waste heat but they have expectations of GigaWatts of new sustained power because they always want to run. The US has on order of 1-2 Tera watts of power capacity so you are talking about .1% of the grid power if a hyperscalar datacenter takes 1 gig of power. I've seen projections of need 50-100 new gigs of capacity. We will see if that actually happens but if it does we are talk 5% increase in grid loading. It sounds small but that is a tremendous about of power.
I mean there are a lot of solutions to making more power or making more efficient chips but to trivialize the impacts of AI as anti Ai propaganda which is how this comment comes of its a bit propaganda minded itself. I think backlash to AI is direct result of strawmaninh Anti AI as having only deranged opinions and anti progress. Where the datacenters are located people suffer because of high velocity don't care about consequences thinking. Every industry has to planing around people or people will do something crazy like burn the centers or try and nationalize data centers. I definitely think that would be stupid but don't underestimate stupid
Yeah I tend to agree with this point. PE is a boggie man for not building enough housing where it matters. In fact if we could build more houses PE could buy it at above market prices all day and builders could boom and eventually rents would drop because PE aren't going to hold empty units because its investiments.
I think you have the hit the nail on the head, if you have unoccupied or a lot of buildings going out of the market at the same or similar rate as new units coming online than you are falling behind. I didn't do the background research on Austrialia but this I think happens a lot in the US we have a bunch of poorly built things that need to be rebuild in 30-50 years so we are not increasing active housing as much as new construction sometimes suggests
I think there is a huge problem that the American Zeitgeist views houses as the only way to build generational wealth. It turns housing into an investiment and investiments need to be defended (NIMBY) and it puts a perceptional view that if house values are not rising America or heaven forbid going day the economy is in doomsday.
The problem with a house as investiment is that, its 1 consoldated undiversifed asset that ruins you if it goes down. Its bad strategy for your children because it makes it so houses will one day be unobtainable this generation or the next. We can try to build it out but I think a lot of the issues with building houses is that we have a shortage of the people that build houses and its a project that is not really DIYable anymore in the places that need houses. (the last point might be a stretch but you know)
I mean the problem with this argument is that it is than transitively true than an entire people of any country with a crazy leader who bombs random countries in the middle east are inline and malovaent. I just disagree because that would imply the will of the US and its entire people is to bomb Palestine and Iran including these kids exiting there graduation. That argument just is factually debased. Collective blame of people for their government even in democracies just doesn't follow.
I agree that support for Palestine is not necessiarly support for Hamas and collective punishiment for Palestine from Hamas's actions is horrible but their is something to playing a useful idiot. And I think Israel and Palestine protesters both do this. Israel could 100% kill Hamas leadership and cause a democracy movement to elect a reasonable leadership in Palestine but they don't and don't want to. Palestine protesters actively persue a 1 state solution in its extreme to model it on the US and I don't think it works that way especially with such a vocal majority in Israel opposed to it. Hamas also don't really want a 2 state solution either because that would be real long term concessions and also a degradation of their authority because they are murders and losers but they are "protecting" some Palestians from Israel.
Israel game here is they want prolong conflict and attacks like Oct. 7 because it justifies more annexation and attacks like Oct. 7 do give strong affimative arguments to take action against Hamas and Palestine whether you like it or not.
Long winded way of saying its a quagmire but if the US wanted to spend less and solve the problem they need to strong arm their ally to engage in generating a democractic uprising against Hamas in exchange for concessions of land (mostly settler land) after a new democratic state reins in their radicals. I think Palestians would jump at that idea but Hamas would be extremely anti that idea because they would be the pariah in their society. Its pragamtic solution but also 1 that requires long term follow through that is also likely to fail. To me that the Kotkin approach no one is happy but progress is possible
I think all your points are correct except the AI making the economy less capital intensive. Its a new type of input that is suppose to make you vastly more performant not having it by definition puts you at a disadvantage. I.e you need that capital.
I don't necessarily agree with that AI is going to be as super productive as people think but if your assumption it is. It is another tool you'll need to be competitive. That last point just doesn't follow if you believe in AI being powerful
I don't won't to rant politically but I think you are confusing Donald Trump's America Alone with all previous Republicans and Democrats. The idea of us abandoning all alliances and deals for ???? is relatively novel and stupid. The brand of tax cuts and austerity (which are republican coded in my opinion) are what destroyed the UK economy and greatly damaged the US economy (we were more obstinate to full Austerity than any EU country the EU made bad economic decisions in required balanced budgets with rigidity). But we never did abandon our allies completely and step of the world stage. This is what sets a republican like Reagan apart from Trump. I think they are both terrible on the economy but Trump is just a disaster for US alliances and soft power. If the role were swapped than I think their is an incredible likelyhood we would have lost the Cold War. Its just not the same republican party its far far worse strategy.
I know we also argued that WW2 is what allowed the US to coast but I'd argue that New Deal programs that made demand and things cheap (like electric think TVA). This arguablely fuels American industry as it rushes to fill in the WW2 demand. All this investiment happend before WW2 even started and I think doesn't get nearly enough credit for allowing the US to 1 not become facists and 2 allows the US to step in and support the large demand of ww2 and post war. If we didn't invest in the nation we would not meet post-war demand and be much poorier today.
Finally, I don't want to be nilhistic or depressed if we can observer that we did things better at one point we can still choose a future that is better regardless of what mistakes we make today. We can make better choices albet it limited from today's options that will actually allow the US to raise people higher out of poverty. I don't agree with the idea of betting against Americian ingenuity in the long term it tends to lose.
I think this is quite reductive. America certainly benefited from being one of 2 major powers after ww2. But unlike the USSR it invested in the world heavily. It rebuilt Allied and Axies manufacturing, and do a lot to revitalize the world economy. They got rich in the process but its not like they did nothing. They invented the internet and cure a ton of diseases. Setup a global order of trade that generates real prosperity.
I guess while I agree that American shareholders do reap incredibly benefits coasting is not really something america does. America is more than just shareholders too. You dont grow the world economy by coasting and you dont make up 25% of the world nominal GDP while only making up ~1/25 its population by coasting its inconsistent with reality.
I think the cost pressures just make most AI generated stuff slop. Its not that AI can't make good stuff its that the slop to good ratio is 100s of times worse with AI published music than with human stuff. Simply because AI generation cost is essentially zero.
Purely a economic argument but also the rare good music from AI I am still looking its generally speaking not that cohesive and for unremarkable. A lot of human work is that to but the discovery of good music from people feels much less daunting
Honestly the most shocking think i learned when moving to Massachusetts was that only licenced trade people can request to have work done inspected. This was insane to me. Why would towns not want amature work not to be inspected. It wasn't illegal for a homeowner with poor experience to electrical, gas, HVAC, without a inspection... It was wild, I understand know its like this because its basically impossible to get certified in trades without it being your full time job and scares people from doing stuff on their own. But I think its also really damaging to society because people who don't know what they are doing will still do things and it shows in houses in Massachusetts which have incorrect wiring, bad plumbing, unlevel floors. Its because we overly protect the trade from handyman.
Thank you for the clarification! When you say you put a lot of time in do you mean as a developer or just game time? I find it facinating how that worked. I personally enjoyed the game cube version but the time to actually port it and get it work on PC most have been fairly interesting!
The OG phantasy Star was a little before my time but the GameCube version of Phantasy Star online was so good. They even have community servers for it today as Phantasy Star Blue burst. The game is now dated but honestly I could still play it because it had a good grind formula
I think the idea that sites have no liability for customly built content designed to capture your attention is kind of wild. It would be one thing if it was a basic or public thumbs up popularity thing based on the groups you join or were apart of. Or a time chronological ordering of things. But its more than that. Its a big math equation that looks at everything you have ever done sells that data and than goes and uses it also to serve you custom ads and contents that maximally steal and maintain attention.
Following you final state and some of the other sub threads, I think removing section 230 hurts larger sites more than smaller ones but also I think its a silly point. If the opposite was true that it benefits small sites more why does 90% of internet traffic go yo just the top 1000 sites? Its because there is no liability and cost to operate in ways that hurt people and the world. A reduced order of the algorithms say chronological ordering or basic vote systems perhaps deserve section 230 protection but the friction roster of videos custom order to capture attention is a type of content production and perhaps needs regulations
Yeah but the 5% Paul used is also kind of conservative since the 1970s stock market returns is like 10% ignoringinflation. Its a big difference if your well grows 7% verse 5% a 1% wealth tax with that in mind is only 15% but i think factoring in inflation is unfair concerning labor pays tax after inflation. That brings the rate down to 10% and thats without taking any significant risk.
I think a real solution is a forced step up in bases every year so people cannot put taxes off forever. It can be modest too 5% of your investment value delta. You could make the carried lost yoy track the net so you cannot be forced to pay when things are down.
Also the idea that capital gains tax should be less than income tax rate is strange. Like the people that own large amount of capital are in the lowest risk situations why should they also.have the most generous tax positions it makes no sense. No real person things the business owner who gets large returns is actually worse off or in high risk because if they were they'd be culled by economic evolution
I think you complexity can be capture by defining what people think is best for them. Gamblers often consider there gambling equal to investing. Smoking makes people feel good in the short term, exercise is hard and painful in the short term.
There certainly people who are selfless but in the distribution of personalities selfless feels more rare. And their is always a question to what extent. I think what Hannah Arendt really is getting at is that is possible to build a system that reinforces small compromises for reasonable benefit that leads the system to meltdown when everyone starts making small compromises
Your probably right I should read the spec but I've worked with so many brillant engineers and I am still pretty young so their must be even more. I just think the overselling of complexity is usually what makes things enterprise grade :) (if you know you know)
Would it really take 5 years to develop rare compress and decompression that seems an extreme overestimate in time. I don't know of the compressor decompression but that seems really high