Elon Musk says civilization will crumble if more people don't have more children(businessinsider.com)
businessinsider.com
Elon Musk says civilization will crumble if more people don't have more children
https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-pandemic-baby-bust-birth-rate-harmful-civilization-demographics-2021-12
20 comments
When demands outstrip resources, historically we get depopulation by famine and war. Probably good to figure out living sustainably on a finite earth sooner than later.
You can also have resource shortages, famine, and war from an upside-down population pyramid.
Like landing a plane, a controlled descent is more important than how fast you get to your destination.
Like landing a plane, a controlled descent is more important than how fast you get to your destination.
Yes, 100%. Needs to be part of a social ethic, societal changes.
Because there will still be competitive pressures, I’m not hopeful. Your social group says “we’ll glide down by X%” and my group will say “great, we’ll maintain or grow and in a generation we’ll dominate”. Often religiously driven (think competition imperatives in thr Middle East, or [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quiverfull])
Because there will still be competitive pressures, I’m not hopeful. Your social group says “we’ll glide down by X%” and my group will say “great, we’ll maintain or grow and in a generation we’ll dominate”. Often religiously driven (think competition imperatives in thr Middle East, or [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quiverfull])
"And yet, so many people, including smart people, think that there are too many people in the world and think that the population is growing out of control. It's completely the opposite. Please look at the numbers..."
Is that really the only thing holding smart people back from having kids? Asking because this place is a decent representation of intelligent people in my opinion.
Is that really the only thing holding smart people back from having kids? Asking because this place is a decent representation of intelligent people in my opinion.
v0iD7(1)
Weird how the stats were just of the US.
Elsewhere in the world there are children being born at a high rate.
Wonder if Elon would choose to address the main issue of Fertility in the Western World. Since more and more Men and Women are having difficulties conceiving. With the increasing costs of Fertility and IVF treatments citizens are finding it hard to come up with money to have children.
Meanwhile the US and Canadian governments are not dealing with this problem. Perhaps leadership should start to address the problems that their citizens cannot have children and do something financially to assist families in need. Instead it seems that Canada is continuing to just fill the population with refugees and immigration.
Wonder if Elon would choose to address the main issue of Fertility in the Western World. Since more and more Men and Women are having difficulties conceiving. With the increasing costs of Fertility and IVF treatments citizens are finding it hard to come up with money to have children.
Meanwhile the US and Canadian governments are not dealing with this problem. Perhaps leadership should start to address the problems that their citizens cannot have children and do something financially to assist families in need. Instead it seems that Canada is continuing to just fill the population with refugees and immigration.
This is the natural consequence of choosing to have kids late to focus on status from work.
Agreed. The parent talks about IVF and fertility treatment, which I support. But I think it would be interesting to explore social programs that provide an easier path to having kids earlier, rather than just deal with the fallout of delaying it. I have no idea what this would look like, but it's a good conversation to have. How - in a way that doesn't provide the wrong incentives or penalize people who make different choices, can we remove the downside of having kids in say late twenties?
Or a life. Lots of people have a life that’s not work.
> Weird how the stats were just of the US. Elsewhere in the world there are children being born at a high rate.
In pockets, yes, mostly in the world's poorest nations. But the global birthrate as a whole has been falling since the 1970s: https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/108A/production/...
It is now only a bit above replacement. Even a conservative projection of the trend has us at a shrinking global population in a few decades. Also, if Nigeria's population quadruples and China's goes down by nearly half, on paper it looks approximately break-even. But that would hide a great deal going on there, in terms of economic, social and political consequences, for both countries, and the world.
In pockets, yes, mostly in the world's poorest nations. But the global birthrate as a whole has been falling since the 1970s: https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/108A/production/...
It is now only a bit above replacement. Even a conservative projection of the trend has us at a shrinking global population in a few decades. Also, if Nigeria's population quadruples and China's goes down by nearly half, on paper it looks approximately break-even. But that would hide a great deal going on there, in terms of economic, social and political consequences, for both countries, and the world.
I agree with everything you said but this:
>Even a conservative projection of the trend has us at a shrinking global population in a few decades.
I have not seen this in any of the projections. We are past peak fertility, and past peak births, but total population has a long lag time, as lifespans are long and increasing.
The projections I have seen show total population peaking ~2100.
>Even a conservative projection of the trend has us at a shrinking global population in a few decades.
I have not seen this in any of the projections. We are past peak fertility, and past peak births, but total population has a long lag time, as lifespans are long and increasing.
The projections I have seen show total population peaking ~2100.
Peaking in 2100 at 11 billion people. If we can arrive fairly soon at a total fertility rate of 1 (half of replacement rate), that’ll eventually put the population curve on a trajectory towards 5 billion people around 2150 (which sounds very reasonable from a carrying capacity perspective).
Elon talks a big game because he’s wealthy enough to have extensive outsourced childcare for his six kids.
Elon talks a big game because he’s wealthy enough to have extensive outsourced childcare for his six kids.
To be honest, I'm not sure why you addressed this comment to me opposed to any of the the other comments.
People can make different arguments about what the carrying capacity or optimal population would be, but the point stands that how we get there is very critical to the state of the world when we reach any target.
Mismanaged depopulation can have devastating impact on the quality of life and even the environment.
The problems caused by population changes are very different across countries. Some countries have or will have major issues caused by population decline. Others will be unimaginable humanitarian disasters due to population growth.
>Elon talks a big game because he’s wealthy enough to have extensive outsourced childcare for his six kids.
This highlights the situational differences in population and economic needs across the globe. Population growth can be a problem in one place and population decline can be a problem in another.
Elon is living in a country with a fertility rate below replacement that requires immigration to maintain itself. It has a strong economy, high GDP, and high material well-being for it's citizens.
Contrast this to someone living in Niger, where the fertility rate is >6, half the population lives on <$1/day, and there are ~200 doctors in the entire country of 10+ million.
People can make different arguments about what the carrying capacity or optimal population would be, but the point stands that how we get there is very critical to the state of the world when we reach any target.
Mismanaged depopulation can have devastating impact on the quality of life and even the environment.
The problems caused by population changes are very different across countries. Some countries have or will have major issues caused by population decline. Others will be unimaginable humanitarian disasters due to population growth.
>Elon talks a big game because he’s wealthy enough to have extensive outsourced childcare for his six kids.
This highlights the situational differences in population and economic needs across the globe. Population growth can be a problem in one place and population decline can be a problem in another.
Elon is living in a country with a fertility rate below replacement that requires immigration to maintain itself. It has a strong economy, high GDP, and high material well-being for it's citizens.
Contrast this to someone living in Niger, where the fertility rate is >6, half the population lives on <$1/day, and there are ~200 doctors in the entire country of 10+ million.
>Perhaps leadership should start to address the problems that their citizens cannot have children and do something financially to assist families in need.
The problem primarily isn't one of money or financial need. The relationship is much more complicated. Money might make some small bump, but it doesn't really compare to the bigger factors.
The problem primarily isn't one of money or financial need. The relationship is much more complicated. Money might make some small bump, but it doesn't really compare to the bigger factors.
Yeah, all civilization needs to survive is about another 20 billion more, 10 billion of them on Mars and 10 billion more here to lead the life worth living.
I thought any supply/demand believer would recognize we have more supply than ever, and the marginal need for any is less than ever before.
I thought any supply/demand believer would recognize we have more supply than ever, and the marginal need for any is less than ever before.
World is projected to have 10B people by 2050 (I think). There are plenty of people. He should be more worried about the famines in Afghanistan and Madagascar if he cares so much about people.
They call it Facebook because they don't allow us to talk about anything that goes on below the neck.
The most significant are political instability and economic downturn.
North America and Europe will become majority minority leading to much more divided politics.
At the same time China will suffer economic stagnation with a huge elderly population to support. This will put them in a similar situation to Japan, but without Japan's level of development.
Last, the countries that are projected to see large population growth (sub-Saharan Africa) are not on track to be able to support themselves and will likely be hit hard by climate change.
Edit:
As an interesting aside, it is worth noting that the world has already passed peak births/year and is now on the decline.
The remaining gains between 8 billion now and 10 billion peak population will be made up by people living longer. This ultimately means fewer and fewer working aged individuals and more elderly to care for.
Today, about 28% of the world is over 65. in 2100 it is projected to be ~40%