Germany to Pass Japan as Third-Largest Economy, Helped by Weak Yen(bloomberg.com)
bloomberg.com
Germany to Pass Japan as Third-Largest Economy, Helped by Weak Yen
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-24/germany-to-pass-japan-as-3rd-largest-economy-helped-by-weak-yen
254 comments
Germany is wildly underestimated in the current moment. The immigration wave has changed the demographics, Germany is not going to age quickly and it is growing in population.
Having lived in UK and Germany for some time, although I'm a big fan of the British culture, I keep maintaining that Germany is much much better country overall simply because it's not centralised as UK is centralised in London.
Germany is prosperous, maybe there are not as many Unicorns as in USA or even UK, the country works like a clockwork and everyone is very active in very wide range of stuff.
All those charts showing how Europe is behind because top 100 largest companies are mostly American tech giants, some petrol companies and some construction and bank stuff from China? Those are so so misleading into making people believe that Germany or mainland Europe is a wasteland that missed out on technology.
Especially Germany, they have very well educated and healthy population and even if they don't make the most trendy consumer products right now, they still have wast infrastructure and people who can produce things.
Of course not everything is rosy, but Germany's and mainland Europe's core problems all come down to cheap energy availability and that's solvable. It's much easier to solve than stuff like widespread social problems like decline due to drug use or political instability.
They tend to rely on paperwork a bit too much maybe, they don't use credit cards that much etc. all these stereotypes are true but technology is not limited to computers, other stuff is also important and they are still pretty good in these things.
Germany is prosperous, maybe there are not as many Unicorns as in USA or even UK, the country works like a clockwork and everyone is very active in very wide range of stuff.
All those charts showing how Europe is behind because top 100 largest companies are mostly American tech giants, some petrol companies and some construction and bank stuff from China? Those are so so misleading into making people believe that Germany or mainland Europe is a wasteland that missed out on technology.
Especially Germany, they have very well educated and healthy population and even if they don't make the most trendy consumer products right now, they still have wast infrastructure and people who can produce things.
Of course not everything is rosy, but Germany's and mainland Europe's core problems all come down to cheap energy availability and that's solvable. It's much easier to solve than stuff like widespread social problems like decline due to drug use or political instability.
They tend to rely on paperwork a bit too much maybe, they don't use credit cards that much etc. all these stereotypes are true but technology is not limited to computers, other stuff is also important and they are still pretty good in these things.
> I keep maintaining that Germany is much much better country overall simply because it's not centralised as UK is centralised in London.
That's interesting. In Germany the decentralization is considered a main reason for the many problems on modernization in bureaucracy and other public areas.
> Those are so so misleading into making people believe that Germany or mainland Europe is a wasteland that missed out on technology.
I think the reason is more that Germany was an early adopter of many technologies, but was then trapped on old infrastructure and workflows, while some others simply failed for various reasons. So it's more an upgrade-problem, then "installation"-problem.
> Europe's core problems all come down to cheap energy availability and that's solvable. It's much easier to solve than stuff like widespread social problems like decline due to drug use or political instability.
In theory yes, in reality it goes hand in hand. Germany for example is cursed by people who poison the progress since a long time. And the harm is showing since a while now. Ironically, it usually only gets better when something catastrophically happened, like Fukushima, or the War with Russia.
That's interesting. In Germany the decentralization is considered a main reason for the many problems on modernization in bureaucracy and other public areas.
> Those are so so misleading into making people believe that Germany or mainland Europe is a wasteland that missed out on technology.
I think the reason is more that Germany was an early adopter of many technologies, but was then trapped on old infrastructure and workflows, while some others simply failed for various reasons. So it's more an upgrade-problem, then "installation"-problem.
> Europe's core problems all come down to cheap energy availability and that's solvable. It's much easier to solve than stuff like widespread social problems like decline due to drug use or political instability.
In theory yes, in reality it goes hand in hand. Germany for example is cursed by people who poison the progress since a long time. And the harm is showing since a while now. Ironically, it usually only gets better when something catastrophically happened, like Fukushima, or the War with Russia.
>In Germany the decentralization is considered a main reason for the many problems on modernization in bureaucracy and other public areas.
They probably have a point. Both structures have pros and cons, I believe.
They probably have a point. Both structures have pros and cons, I believe.
That's for sure. But Germany at the moment is in a phase where the decentralization is biting it. While UK seems to succeed in some areas where Germany fails at the moment. So it's fascinating to see such a comment.
There are lots of tradeoffs with the current decentral/federated system for sure. But one key point is that it’s incredibly hard for an extremist or fascist party to take over the whole country and run it into the ground quickly(again!). And with the growing rightwing populism over here it’s a good thing to prevent the worst.
Of course the setup also slows down progressive policies or any changes in general due to conservatives/rightwingers blocking things, but that’s the price of it.
Of course the setup also slows down progressive policies or any changes in general due to conservatives/rightwingers blocking things, but that’s the price of it.
Germany is a powerhouse of medium-sized companies supplying precision engineering to a bunch of other industries. Those companies are mostly invisible to the consumer market but provide the machines which make machines, the German M&E (machinery and equipment) sector is massive, just not as flashy as tech unicorns creating yet-another ad-filled consumer product...
Look at southern Germany on Google Maps Satellite View. It's all small towns with immense commercial/production area around it. It's not some row of Motels/McDonalds/Walmart like in many areas of the US, but tons of specialised companies. Not many unicorns, but tons of innovative, profitable enterprises.
>Germany is a powerhouse of medium-sized companies supplying precision engineering to a bunch of other industries.
Sure, but looking at valuation of the likes of Apple versus German "hidden champions", the big money is in products targeting the general consumer and not niche machinery widgets. This is also reflected in things like work culture, treatment of workers and pay.
This missing out on the wave of consumer tech and software, and sticking to pushing dying tech like diesel engines all the way till the 2010's, is probably one of the reason the purchasing power of the average German has stagnated since the 90's when it peaked.
Source: have worked at a couple of Germany's hidden champions making some high end machinery widgets and wouldn't do it again unless I was facing homelessness. US companies for me all the way baby (operating on EU soil).
Sure, but looking at valuation of the likes of Apple versus German "hidden champions", the big money is in products targeting the general consumer and not niche machinery widgets. This is also reflected in things like work culture, treatment of workers and pay.
This missing out on the wave of consumer tech and software, and sticking to pushing dying tech like diesel engines all the way till the 2010's, is probably one of the reason the purchasing power of the average German has stagnated since the 90's when it peaked.
Source: have worked at a couple of Germany's hidden champions making some high end machinery widgets and wouldn't do it again unless I was facing homelessness. US companies for me all the way baby (operating on EU soil).
> Sure, but looking at valuation of the likes of Apple versus German "hidden champions", the big money is in products targeting the general consumer and not niche machinery widgets.
This isn't a particularly good comparison. Comparing the largest B2C company in the world to some SMB isn't particularly fitting. When comparing "valuations" it is also important to consider the fact that some of Germany's biggest companies are entirely privately owned and not exchange listed - and also popular in the US to an extent at least (Lidl, Bosch).
> is probably one of the reason the purchasing power of the average German has stagnated since the 90's when it peaked.
This is a pretty widespread trend and just as prevalent in the US. Salary increases desperately lacking behind the countries' productivity. Some interesting reads [1] [2]
> Source: have worked at a couple of Germany's hidden champions making some high end machinery widgets and wouldn't do it again unless I was facing homelessness. US companies for me all the way baby (operating on EU soil).
That's a pretty personal and individul experience which comes down to personal preference. Certainly, both vastly different ways of working have their benefits and drawbacks. Having a few colleagues who switched from US based companies to a somewhat large German hidden champion, they seem to be pretty happy here for the most part. I'm under the impression that the focus on US companies is especially prevalent in software related jobs, which is not surprising given the $$$ and the interesting technical challenges (at least for FAANGish companies). I don't think such strong preference exists for other industries to be honest.
[1] https://economics.stackexchange.com/questions/15558/producti...
[2] https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/
[3] https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/conferences/shared/pdf/2018061...
This isn't a particularly good comparison. Comparing the largest B2C company in the world to some SMB isn't particularly fitting. When comparing "valuations" it is also important to consider the fact that some of Germany's biggest companies are entirely privately owned and not exchange listed - and also popular in the US to an extent at least (Lidl, Bosch).
> is probably one of the reason the purchasing power of the average German has stagnated since the 90's when it peaked.
This is a pretty widespread trend and just as prevalent in the US. Salary increases desperately lacking behind the countries' productivity. Some interesting reads [1] [2]
> Source: have worked at a couple of Germany's hidden champions making some high end machinery widgets and wouldn't do it again unless I was facing homelessness. US companies for me all the way baby (operating on EU soil).
That's a pretty personal and individul experience which comes down to personal preference. Certainly, both vastly different ways of working have their benefits and drawbacks. Having a few colleagues who switched from US based companies to a somewhat large German hidden champion, they seem to be pretty happy here for the most part. I'm under the impression that the focus on US companies is especially prevalent in software related jobs, which is not surprising given the $$$ and the interesting technical challenges (at least for FAANGish companies). I don't think such strong preference exists for other industries to be honest.
[1] https://economics.stackexchange.com/questions/15558/producti...
[2] https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/
[3] https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/conferences/shared/pdf/2018061...
> large German hidden champion
If they're large, then they're not really hidden anymore. Hidden champions are usually those sub-200 employee companies usually located in the county side. SAP, Porsche or Zeiss are not hidden champions.
If they're large, then they're not really hidden anymore. Hidden champions are usually those sub-200 employee companies usually located in the county side. SAP, Porsche or Zeiss are not hidden champions.
I don't work for SAP, Porsche or Zeiss. I work for a company that is rather large but rather unknown outside the geographic region it operates locations and outside the industry it operates in, thus it perfectly fits the definition of a hidden champion, but not of a SMB (Mittelstand).
Whenever I tell someone where I work, there is a 80% chance they've never heard of the company, despite there being a high chance they use one or multiple of our products.
Whenever I tell someone where I work, there is a 80% chance they've never heard of the company, despite there being a high chance they use one or multiple of our products.
Amusingly I've found the experience of working at a German company in the US to be a huge upgrade. Maybe the real secret is just a foreign company to temper the culture of your own country's.
I would rather have a smaller GDP backed by real underlying industrial capacity rather than frothy valuations on photo sharing apps and exotic financial instruments.
We're not talking about GDP here. The local purchasing power of the average German worker has plummeted since the 90's, especially when you factor in housing costs.
Geramy becoming the third largest economy by GDP sounds exactly we are talking GDP here.
That housing became unaffordable is a different topic, one purely caused by greedy investors.
That housing became unaffordable is a different topic, one purely caused by greedy investors.
GPD is relatively irelevant to the welfare average person as the GDP is a number that can be artificially inflated by a number of factors respectful of the average worker. Higher GDP doesn't automatically translate to higher wages and better standard of living for everyone.
You can be a tax heaven and if FAANG and big-tech corps simply use your country as a base station to funnel the sales and profits of an entire continent/economic area becasue they pay no taxes there, then your GDP will be insane but that might not mean much to your average worker who isn't getting a piece of that pie.
Germany is Europe's richest country, but that doesn't make the Germans as individuals automatically the wealthiest citizens in Europe. Think about hat for a second. In fact, when it comes to wealth, the avenge Germans net worth is significantly lower than most wealthy EU states, sometimes even on par with those form former Eastern block EU states.
You can be a tax heaven and if FAANG and big-tech corps simply use your country as a base station to funnel the sales and profits of an entire continent/economic area becasue they pay no taxes there, then your GDP will be insane but that might not mean much to your average worker who isn't getting a piece of that pie.
Germany is Europe's richest country, but that doesn't make the Germans as individuals automatically the wealthiest citizens in Europe. Think about hat for a second. In fact, when it comes to wealth, the avenge Germans net worth is significantly lower than most wealthy EU states, sometimes even on par with those form former Eastern block EU states.
Germans lag everyone in terms of home ownership, we are a nation of people renting appartments. Which explains the gap, the same way it did decades ago, the first time I remember people being confused by that statistic...
Wealth is wealth, and if you do not own a house and do not have 450k € extra in the bank compared to the home owner than you are poorer, literally.
You don't have 450k of course. You do have, say, 150k without a mortgage.
ZEISS is another one but I wouldn't consider them midsize.
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> the country works like a clockwork
Except trains and government bureaucracy and a bunch of other things.
Except trains and government bureaucracy and a bunch of other things.
I recently was taking trains across Germany and while some where late and others went out of service there was always another to hop onto and it was easy to find.
Maybe not like clockwork but as a visitor from a country without a strong train network I was (easily?) impressed
Maybe not like clockwork but as a visitor from a country without a strong train network I was (easily?) impressed
Switzerland no longer accepts some DB (German Rail) trains crossing the border, they are forced to terminate early, and passengers have to change trains. Reason: DB delays are so frequent that if they did not do this the Swiss rail network would also collapse.
Germany's Liebling has always been the Autobahn, and I don't see that changing any time soon.
Germany's Liebling has always been the Autobahn, and I don't see that changing any time soon.
This reminds me when my DB broke down on the way to Zurich just past the border and I had to change trains, though I believe in that case it was a swap from broken DB to not-yet-broken DB. The scenery was great so I didn't mind terribly.
Sorry for the pointless post but got to reminiscing.
Sorry for the pointless post but got to reminiscing.
Yes, people in Germany love complaining about their trains. It makes sense, a decade ago they were way better. For everybody else that's experienced the train systems of other countries, it's still incredibly good.
I think the issue is that for a long long time we were a car nation wearing the coat of a train nation and while the stereotype (and expectation) solidified itself we privatized the railway system, converted many of the Western cities from public transportation focussed to car focussed (and back) and continued to make the car industry the bedrock of a few states' economies.
It's all relative; Irish Rail makes DB look very good, say. I gather the British rail companies are as bad or worse these days.
I think that's the chief difference between countries that do well with immigration and the ones that don't - I have some French friends, who have basically fled the country because Paris has become unlivable - too expensive, too little space, and if someone with a good education and income has found it a struggle to get a decent place and live a good life, how is life for the rest of society?
>I have some French friends, who have basically fled the country
Are those friends enjoying the irony of becoming immigrants to escape immigrants?
Are those friends enjoying the irony of becoming immigrants to escape immigrants?
I doubt those friends were escaping an influx of skilled labor.
Immigration is a complex topic, it is not something binary.
I don't think it's a good idea to take the culture war angle - I was just pointing out the fact that some countries/societies are set up in a way that promote their capitals into unhealthy economic centers of gravity, that attract way too many people. Which in turn, strains the local services and housing situation to an unreasonable degree, causing all sorts of misery for the inhabitants.
It's natural - and necessary for self regulation - for people to take the initiative and move out of these places.
It's natural - and necessary for self regulation - for people to take the initiative and move out of these places.
I wasn't but I also couldn't get over the irony of it. However, the misery aspect must be much more complex. For example, why people are not building more homes? Are we out of bricks? Also, as you pointed out the centralisation around a major city is another aspect of it.
Unfortunately we are having hard times. IMHO, a huge part of it is the contemporary landed gentry.
Unfortunately we are having hard times. IMHO, a huge part of it is the contemporary landed gentry.
>Are those friends enjoying the irony of becoming immigrants to escape immigrants?
Every country welcomes you with open arms if you're a skilled and educated laborer in areas of shortage and not migrating to be a burden on the welfare system.
Every country welcomes you with open arms if you're a skilled and educated laborer in areas of shortage and not migrating to be a burden on the welfare system.
they are not immigrants, they are expats /s
I have some bad news for your friends. Cities are becoming more expensive everywhere regardless of immigration. Private equity is buying up houses/apartments en masse and "maximizing profit". Inflation is very real. Immigration will certainly be an issue in some cities, but it's not all roses everywhere else.
Exactly. People like to demonise the poor immigrants that would like to work and welcome the rich ones with open arms but the life has become so hard in cities especially due to the rich ones who don't add anything to the society because they don't even live there and even if they live, don't engage with the local population. They swoop in, claim the resources and actively extract them(for example by keeping the apartment empty).
The main critiques of Germany I hear are not demographic but rather have to do with problems in industrial and energy policy. Namely the failure to anticipate the shift to electric vehicles and the over-reliance on natural gas for energy.
Germany's energy policy failed badly, but consider Germany as part of the European Union with nuclear-powered France as its neighbour. Ensemble wir schaffen das !
You mean that Germany that shits in nuclear left and right, trying to block it from EU green agenda and then threatening it's neighbours when they wanted to went nuclear?
That is the funny part: when the sun is down and the wind is not sufficient (surprisingly often), nuclear-hating Germany buys power from its neighbours - chiefly France (nuclear) and Switzerland (hydro and nuclear)
> That is the funny part: when the sun is down and the wind is not sufficient (surprisingly often), nuclear-hating Germany buys power from its neighbours - including France.
I'm not sure if I understand that line of thinking. While the nuclear exit of Germany may have been short-sighted, it is what it is now. And when shit hits the fan in France because their power plants are down for maintenance or a lack of suitable coolant water, Germany exports electricity to France. That's what a supra-national electricity grid is for and that's not a topic that ever was open for debate.
Also, regarding the decision Germany made regarding nuclear power, I am not sure if it actually was the wrong one. Looking at the cost overruns and extended timelines of essentially any new nuclear reactor construction, the people complaining about nuclear power not being economically viable may have a point. Whether the much proposed alternative of small scale nuclear reactors can live up to it's promise on any kind of meaningful scale remains to be seen.
What I think is the biggest failure of German energy policy is the fact that Germany went from a leader in renewable technology to desperately lacking behind. While this demise was partially driven by the companies themselves, some extremely short sighted policy failures also are to blame.
I'm not sure if I understand that line of thinking. While the nuclear exit of Germany may have been short-sighted, it is what it is now. And when shit hits the fan in France because their power plants are down for maintenance or a lack of suitable coolant water, Germany exports electricity to France. That's what a supra-national electricity grid is for and that's not a topic that ever was open for debate.
Also, regarding the decision Germany made regarding nuclear power, I am not sure if it actually was the wrong one. Looking at the cost overruns and extended timelines of essentially any new nuclear reactor construction, the people complaining about nuclear power not being economically viable may have a point. Whether the much proposed alternative of small scale nuclear reactors can live up to it's promise on any kind of meaningful scale remains to be seen.
What I think is the biggest failure of German energy policy is the fact that Germany went from a leader in renewable technology to desperately lacking behind. While this demise was partially driven by the companies themselves, some extremely short sighted policy failures also are to blame.
France concludes resorption of a huge backlog of nuclear power plant improvements that resulted in exceptional downtimes in 2021-2022. With that done and investment back to the levels it should never have fallen under, the deficit of the 2022 winter will not repeat.
As for the alleged cooling water shortages, they are not shortages but regulatory limits on downstream water temperature - which only concerns some riverine plants in summer. With three litres evaporated per kW/h produced, plants with evaporative cooling are very far from enduring a water supply constraint.
As for the alleged cooling water shortages, they are not shortages but regulatory limits on downstream water temperature - which only concerns some riverine plants in summer. With three litres evaporated per kW/h produced, plants with evaporative cooling are very far from enduring a water supply constraint.
Germany usually buys from France because it's cheaper, not because they could not supply it on their own. Europe has a tightly integrated market, and everyone is covering each other, which also allows to usually buy where it's cheapest.
Stupid Europeans and their cross country grid connections working as intended!! Texas did it better.
Or they power up old coal and gas plants :)
At least there exists a reason to prefer nuclear power plants from being farther away from you.
What the US does with oil makes even less sense.
What the US does with the transportation of oil makes even lesser sense. If climate crisis is existential it seems like it would be worth having a few oil spills along a pipeline to save some carbon.
What the US does with oil makes even less sense.
What the US does with the transportation of oil makes even lesser sense. If climate crisis is existential it seems like it would be worth having a few oil spills along a pipeline to save some carbon.
> At least there exists a reason to prefer nuclear power plants from being farther away from you.
Not at the distances this short. If anything happens to any of the nuclear plants in France the pollution will reach Germany within 24 hours.
I've actually seen this used as an argument FOR building nuclear power plants in Poland: we already have like 10 such plants within 200 miles from our borders, so we already have all of the risks, but none of the benefits.
Not at the distances this short. If anything happens to any of the nuclear plants in France the pollution will reach Germany within 24 hours.
I've actually seen this used as an argument FOR building nuclear power plants in Poland: we already have like 10 such plants within 200 miles from our borders, so we already have all of the risks, but none of the benefits.
I think you are confusing the ideas of "anything happen" with "if the worst case scenario happens". There are plenty of examples that disprove your theory.
And even in the worst case scenario the farther you are away the better.
And even in the worst case scenario the farther you are away the better.
The current discussion is France wanting to directly subsidize existing paid-off nuclear plants with EU money because they are not competitive on the European whole-sale market anymore.
The other side argue France can do it using their own funds if they deem it necessary.
https://www.ft.com/content/b1dbd7b4-d8b9-45eb-bd18-4976f7c9a...
The other side argue France can do it using their own funds if they deem it necessary.
https://www.ft.com/content/b1dbd7b4-d8b9-45eb-bd18-4976f7c9a...
If taking into account the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) in isolation, variable renewables are more competitive.
If taking into account the System LCOE (sum of generation, integration and storage costs to reach equivalent stable supply), then nuclear wins - and that doesn't even account for the VRE's huge land use.
If taking into account the System LCOE (sum of generation, integration and storage costs to reach equivalent stable supply), then nuclear wins - and that doesn't even account for the VRE's huge land use.
"Firmed renewables" are cheaper than or equal in cost to new nuclear today [1]. Renewables and storage are on an exponential cost reduction and learning curve, while nuclear famously has gotten more expensive with each generation [2]. Given that nuclear is uncompetitive against against renewables today, adding a 15-20 year lead-time just makes it laughable. Then another 30-40 years to turn a profit.
Nuclear is a technological dead-end economically. Perfect for niche applications like submarines, but not for the grid.
[1]: https://www.lazard.com/research-insights/2023-levelized-cost...
[2]: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03014...
Nuclear is a technological dead-end economically. Perfect for niche applications like submarines, but not for the grid.
[1]: https://www.lazard.com/research-insights/2023-levelized-cost...
[2]: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03014...
Interesting Lazard study. First time I see such investment guys so optimistic about grid-scale storage beyond the currently supply-limited pumped hydro.
The only way electricity is stored at the moment is using pumped hydro so. Regardless of the source.
Lots of bad things have happened because of and since the previous "wir schaffen das".
Last time I checked, we actually did manage it, the last time I mean. Care to elavorate which bad things happened because of it? Because happening since is pointless, we have the war in Ukraine and Covid for example since then, and neither has anything to do with it.
>Last time I checked, we actually did manage it, the last time I mean. Care to elavorate which bad things happened because of it?
I'd rather not get flagged.
I'd rather not get flagged.
Ah, ok. So let me guess: Cologne attacks, serial raping of women, criminal clans? Just picking some BS talking points from top of my head.
The new Year's Eve assaults were not BS: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_New_Year%27s...
Not only that, denial of it appears to have been one of the instigating factors in launching far right parties to prominence.
Not only that, denial of it appears to have been one of the instigating factors in launching far right parties to prominence.
There is a difference between ignoring them and seeimg that they were blown way, way out of proportion...
And wow, it was in 2015? Forgot that it was almost a decade ago... People really, really should be able to move on... Well, they tried, but the endangered, lawless swimming pool narrative didn't really catch on, did it?
And wow, it was in 2015? Forgot that it was almost a decade ago... People really, really should be able to move on... Well, they tried, but the endangered, lawless swimming pool narrative didn't really catch on, did it?
It's totally reasonable to say that these incidents are not significant enough to change immigration policy. But the attacks were not "BS", and falsely claiming them as such a big part of what fueled the rise of AfD and other far right parties. Even if you don't care about veracity, I'm sure you don't want to help support those parties, right? That's why you shouldn't call these events BS.
The attacks, few as they were, are not BS. What was made out of them was, is and always will be utter horse crap. What worries me is people, who believe that, pushing policy based on those believes.
Did you notice that almost every store in Berlin has a security personnel at the entrance? It wasn't like this before, but I remember being really confused when I saw this in Paris in the early 2000s. What happened? Do you think Hans and Jürgen have broken bad?
The downgrade in everyday security is something they simply accepted as a compromise, just deal it and also stop romanticizing Hans and Jürgen.
> Namely the failure to anticipate the shift to electric vehicles
I'm a _little_ confused by this narrative. VW Group is the largest seller of electric vehicles to the EU market. BMW is also pretty big. I mean, could German manufacturers be _more_ dominant? Perhaps, but it's certainly not a Toyota type case.
(I actually wonder how much of this is driven purely by the extreme... invisibleness of the eGolf and eUp; it was very difficult to tell that they weren't Golfs/Ups. Some people may think that the i3/4/5 are VW's first electric cars.)
I'm a _little_ confused by this narrative. VW Group is the largest seller of electric vehicles to the EU market. BMW is also pretty big. I mean, could German manufacturers be _more_ dominant? Perhaps, but it's certainly not a Toyota type case.
(I actually wonder how much of this is driven purely by the extreme... invisibleness of the eGolf and eUp; it was very difficult to tell that they weren't Golfs/Ups. Some people may think that the i3/4/5 are VW's first electric cars.)
While I'm still trying to get my head around things in Germany, I'd argue that those are symptoms of deeper cultural issues related to deeply-embedded conversatism and over-respect for hierarchy (e.g. status, age, seniority) in leadership, risk-taking, and decision-making throughout the private and public sectors.
You can call them cultural issues but that's just.. the German culture. I thought it was slow and needlessly tiring when I first moved here, but over time I've learned to appreciate the stability it brings. There is a method to the (lack of?) madness, although it may not be apparent at first.
Maybe Volkswagen et al. didn't innovate early enough in terms of electric cars, but it gets more interesting every day (to the point that I would by German instead of a Tesla).
But where the country is spectacular: in charging infrastructure. It has one of or even the densest high-performance-charger network in the world. 350kw chargers: world leading. Sure, the network is not finished yet. But having to actually have an electric car, Germany is one of the best places to be.
Few people noticed: Germany has also the leading hydrogen-fuelstation network outside Japan and South Korea.
But where the country is spectacular: in charging infrastructure. It has one of or even the densest high-performance-charger network in the world. 350kw chargers: world leading. Sure, the network is not finished yet. But having to actually have an electric car, Germany is one of the best places to be.
Few people noticed: Germany has also the leading hydrogen-fuelstation network outside Japan and South Korea.
Industry's failure to anticipate political enforcement of electric vehicle adoption? Over-relaince on Russia for energy (to decode the natural gas comment). Both political complaints. Perhaps German industry just predicts their long term future differently.
The shift to EVs? When did that happen?
Look around, it's actively happening. Many jurisdictions have instituted deadlines, past which ICE vehicles won't be allowed. Where I live, I won't be able to register an ICE car manufactured after 2030.
Instead of looking I can read the data. Most western countries are selling between 2-20% of EVs. I think it is very reasonable to assume these "deadlines" will be extended.
But even in regards to this topic the small percentage of sales Germany manufactures might have missed out on EVs could easily be overcome with advertising or other external factors.
But even in regards to this topic the small percentage of sales Germany manufactures might have missed out on EVs could easily be overcome with advertising or other external factors.
Germany is already at 18% and rising rapidly, there doesn't seem to be a problem selling EV cars even in larger countries. Norway is 80% but they have oil money, but even Sweden is at 32% and they are sparsely populated and not richer than Germany.
So I see no reason why banning non EV by 2030 in some countries is impossible, Germany and many similar countries are ahead of the curve needed to get there.
So I see no reason why banning non EV by 2030 in some countries is impossible, Germany and many similar countries are ahead of the curve needed to get there.
There is no evidence to suggest the rate will increase but evidence that it will decrease. The demand for non-EV worldwide is growing rapidly and if Germany doesn't want to compete on this market there will be other countries standing in line.
Around two years ago.
How productive are the new arrivals though?
Its varied. I think there was no study that checks that for the whole of Germany, but in my town, most (>90%) of the Syrian refugees from a few years back are now settled down, have a job and and pay social security. A few have high paying jobs (construction, specialized metal-working, etc.), but many of them are in the medium to low income sector. Interestingly, they view food related jobs as high status jobs, whereas German people do not. So many of them are employed in restaurants, etc.
Update: there are of course also other arrivals, but the Syrians make the bulk of them.
Update: there are of course also other arrivals, but the Syrians make the bulk of them.
It's cheap labor for employers and bad news for German employees who felt the jobs weren't paid enough. The employees who wouldn't work for a "hungerlohn" are forced now as the emplyeers have absolutely no incentive to lower their profit margins, with all the Syrian refugees willing to work for less. I'm sure they're grateful and that they're doing better than in US occupied Syria (Isn't it great how much media coverage the Syrian invasion and civil displacement got?), but it's still an exploitative profit oriented system that's taking advantage of peoples situation.
Edit: Knowing HN, I'll be the one called racist as opposed to the comment right next to me that's saying terrible things about Muslims.
Edit: Knowing HN, I'll be the one called racist as opposed to the comment right next to me that's saying terrible things about Muslims.
I downvoted you not because you said anything racist but because I strongly disagree with your argument about achieving high salaries through limiting the workforce availability.
The problem with this approach is that, the compensation becomes high for no good reason and since less people are working the output declines. Everything becomes more expensive because the consumption stays the same or higher but the production don't follow. Maybe you make more money by not letting a Syrian immigrant to cook food and compete with you but you also pay more to have your apartment painted because they didn't let some other Syrian immigrant compete in the painting business.
Immigrants that work create prosperity. If you are having trouble competing with a newcomers who barely speak the language, don't know anything of your culture and they grew up in a much poorer conditions in a country with much less opportunities, then it's on you. You should have taken advantage of living in this rich country that has given you all kind of opportunities, if you can't I don't see moral obligation to pay you well just because you are local.
People who want to participate in the society, create value and be compensated for it should not be stopped from doing it just because it might hurt someone else's prospect. This is basically the same argument against technology where some people would argue that we should limit robots and automation so that the workers can keep their jobs.
People are scared of change and don't want competition but if we artificially limit competition, the whole society will end up uncompetitive and catastrophe can happen. Protectionism is very dangerous, look what's happening to VW.
The problem with this approach is that, the compensation becomes high for no good reason and since less people are working the output declines. Everything becomes more expensive because the consumption stays the same or higher but the production don't follow. Maybe you make more money by not letting a Syrian immigrant to cook food and compete with you but you also pay more to have your apartment painted because they didn't let some other Syrian immigrant compete in the painting business.
Immigrants that work create prosperity. If you are having trouble competing with a newcomers who barely speak the language, don't know anything of your culture and they grew up in a much poorer conditions in a country with much less opportunities, then it's on you. You should have taken advantage of living in this rich country that has given you all kind of opportunities, if you can't I don't see moral obligation to pay you well just because you are local.
People who want to participate in the society, create value and be compensated for it should not be stopped from doing it just because it might hurt someone else's prospect. This is basically the same argument against technology where some people would argue that we should limit robots and automation so that the workers can keep their jobs.
People are scared of change and don't want competition but if we artificially limit competition, the whole society will end up uncompetitive and catastrophe can happen. Protectionism is very dangerous, look what's happening to VW.
> if you are having trouble competing with a newcomers who barely speak the language, don't know anything of your culture and they grew up in a much poorer conditions in a country with much less opportunities, then it's on you.
I swear I encountered the same argument in Britain after EU enlargement in 2004, when they opened for all citizens of new countries. Cunningly DACH countries fiercely negotiated at that time the longest possible transition periods.
I swear I encountered the same argument in Britain after EU enlargement in 2004, when they opened for all citizens of new countries. Cunningly DACH countries fiercely negotiated at that time the longest possible transition periods.
And UK left EU, no new people can come and wages are going up. Are the living standards going up too? Nope.
If you want to see a higher number in the bank account and pay higher numbers for everything, be my guest but that's not going to solve your problems. Inflation is not a saviour.
If you want to see a higher number in the bank account and pay higher numbers for everything, be my guest but that's not going to solve your problems. Inflation is not a saviour.
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>If you are having trouble competing with a newcomers who barely speak the language, don't know anything of your culture and they grew up in a much poorer conditions in a country with much less opportunities, then it's on you.
It's funny to blame others for being wage dumped on as being their own fault, as long as it's not your job that's threatened form wage dumping.
It's funny to blame others for being wage dumped on as being their own fault, as long as it's not your job that's threatened form wage dumping.
So whose fault would it be? Let me rephrase the question: who is picking strawberries from the fields in the UK now?
I recommend everyone to watch the series called "Benefits Britain: Life on the Dole" (mostly available on YT). I don't even blame these people, they are just doing what the system lets them get away with.
I recommend everyone to watch the series called "Benefits Britain: Life on the Dole" (mostly available on YT). I don't even blame these people, they are just doing what the system lets them get away with.
That's just pointless whataboutism. Workers being wage dumped on by cheaper more desperate workforce that puts downward pressure on the labor market reducing their power to negociate higher wages, and people choosing to live on the dole because they're fuckups at life, are two different orthogonal issues that are unrelated.
Imagine you graduate form university and apply for jobs where your employer receives 1 resume for every position open. What happens with your bargaining power when your employer can now hire from anywhere in the world without any visa barriers and now receives 200 resumes for the same position?
Imagine you graduate form university and apply for jobs where your employer receives 1 resume for every position open. What happens with your bargaining power when your employer can now hire from anywhere in the world without any visa barriers and now receives 200 resumes for the same position?
> reducing their power to negociate higher wages
"Negociate"?
> Workers being wage dumped on by cheaper more desperate workforce...
"Wage dump" - that word again. So this is how people pick up policital slogans and start repeating them, without even thinking about how much of it is true. I don't think it is true.
> people choosing to live on the dole because they're fuckups at life
Think about who is paying for their benefits.
> What happens with your bargaining power when your employer can now hire from anywhere in the world without any visa barriers
Right, because that's what's going on in the UK. I don't think anyone suggested anything even remotely like that. In fact, I don't know of any country that does that.
"Negociate"?
> Workers being wage dumped on by cheaper more desperate workforce...
"Wage dump" - that word again. So this is how people pick up policital slogans and start repeating them, without even thinking about how much of it is true. I don't think it is true.
> people choosing to live on the dole because they're fuckups at life
Think about who is paying for their benefits.
> What happens with your bargaining power when your employer can now hire from anywhere in the world without any visa barriers
Right, because that's what's going on in the UK. I don't think anyone suggested anything even remotely like that. In fact, I don't know of any country that does that.
>Negociate"?
Yes, negociate, bargain, haggle, call it whatever you want. Everyone negociates their wage, or at least tries to. Do you not where you live?
>"Wage dump" - that word again. So this is how people pick up policital slogans and start repeating them, without even thinking about how much of it is true. I don't think it is true.
What's your point? That if your boss would have 10x the number of candidates your wages and negotiation power wouldn't tank?
Yes, negociate, bargain, haggle, call it whatever you want. Everyone negociates their wage, or at least tries to. Do you not where you live?
>"Wage dump" - that word again. So this is how people pick up policital slogans and start repeating them, without even thinking about how much of it is true. I don't think it is true.
What's your point? That if your boss would have 10x the number of candidates your wages and negotiation power wouldn't tank?
>wage dumping
That's made up word. It's actually competition and everyone has right to compete. If you don't want wages go below some level simply set the minimum wage to that level.
What's next? Are we going to start issuing licenses for using JavaScript because the tech sector slowed and it's easy to learn a JS framework to compete for the available jobs?
That's made up word. It's actually competition and everyone has right to compete. If you don't want wages go below some level simply set the minimum wage to that level.
What's next? Are we going to start issuing licenses for using JavaScript because the tech sector slowed and it's easy to learn a JS framework to compete for the available jobs?
>That's made up word.
Are you literate?
> It's actually competition and everyone has right to compete.
Ah yes, the "free market" argument again.
You see, when you can't afford a house anymore because the central bank and government fucked you over and your wages are stagnating thanks to unfair competition from migrant workers, then there's nothing we can do about it it's just the "free market supply and demand".
But when workers' wages start getting too high for employers' linking as he can only get a platinum trim yacht instead of the diamond one, then it's no longer the hand of the free market working in the workers' favor but it's now called a "labor shortage" so all unions must be defanged and immigration barriers must be removed to ease the so called "labor shortage".
Now that's propaganda.
Are you literate?
> It's actually competition and everyone has right to compete.
Ah yes, the "free market" argument again.
You see, when you can't afford a house anymore because the central bank and government fucked you over and your wages are stagnating thanks to unfair competition from migrant workers, then there's nothing we can do about it it's just the "free market supply and demand".
But when workers' wages start getting too high for employers' linking as he can only get a platinum trim yacht instead of the diamond one, then it's no longer the hand of the free market working in the workers' favor but it's now called a "labor shortage" so all unions must be defanged and immigration barriers must be removed to ease the so called "labor shortage".
Now that's propaganda.
[deleted]
> the compensation becomes high for no good reason
Not for no good reason - supply and demand. Literally the most important corner stone of any capitalistic system. The rest of your paragraph is based on your forced assumption of "no reason".
> Maybe you make more money by not letting a Syrian immigrant to cook food and compete with you but you also pay more to have your apartment painted because they didn't let some other Syrian immigrant compete in the painting business.
I'd say you're undervaluing apartment painting. Which is obvious since you're advocating having to fly in people from a destroyed country to do it.
In other words: Low paying jobs wouldn't sit around for long going undone. The market would adjust. Either they're jobs that shouldn't exist in the first place and need to vanish, or they are underpaid and the market would adjust by paying them better.
Try envisioning a world where a person who does a hard shitty job gets paid the same as a highly trained person sitting in front of a PC all day. Cleaning toilets is essential for our society to function and should be a respectable profession. It might not take a lot of education, but it's a hard job none the less The only reason hard jobs like this are not paid what they're worth, is trickery like immigration.
Not for no good reason - supply and demand. Literally the most important corner stone of any capitalistic system. The rest of your paragraph is based on your forced assumption of "no reason".
> Maybe you make more money by not letting a Syrian immigrant to cook food and compete with you but you also pay more to have your apartment painted because they didn't let some other Syrian immigrant compete in the painting business.
I'd say you're undervaluing apartment painting. Which is obvious since you're advocating having to fly in people from a destroyed country to do it.
In other words: Low paying jobs wouldn't sit around for long going undone. The market would adjust. Either they're jobs that shouldn't exist in the first place and need to vanish, or they are underpaid and the market would adjust by paying them better.
Try envisioning a world where a person who does a hard shitty job gets paid the same as a highly trained person sitting in front of a PC all day. Cleaning toilets is essential for our society to function and should be a respectable profession. It might not take a lot of education, but it's a hard job none the less The only reason hard jobs like this are not paid what they're worth, is trickery like immigration.
The number might become higher but if the economic output stays the same relative to the population the compensation doesn't become higher.
What would increase the output of the society? Employed people or unemployed people? It's employed people, so as long as the newcomers are employed and produce more than they consume everyone will be better off.
Forget the numbers, those are just for bookkeeping. You are not going to be better off if you you are compensated better due to staff shortages and then pay more due to staff shortages.
What would increase the output of the society? Employed people or unemployed people? It's employed people, so as long as the newcomers are employed and produce more than they consume everyone will be better off.
Forget the numbers, those are just for bookkeeping. You are not going to be better off if you you are compensated better due to staff shortages and then pay more due to staff shortages.
> The number might become higher but if the economic output stays the same relative to the population the compensation doesn't become higher.
You're using the word compensation ambiguously. Your sentence is thus nonsense as I cannot parse what you meant. Was that your point?
> You are not going to be better off if you you are compensated better due to staff shortages and then pay more due to staff shortages.
Are you saying that keeping payment low is good for people because it also keeps inflation low? I'm sure everyone will agree and take a pay cut any moment now :)
You're using the word compensation ambiguously. Your sentence is thus nonsense as I cannot parse what you meant. Was that your point?
> You are not going to be better off if you you are compensated better due to staff shortages and then pay more due to staff shortages.
Are you saying that keeping payment low is good for people because it also keeps inflation low? I'm sure everyone will agree and take a pay cut any moment now :)
"High" is a relative measure.
"Output" is vague and not an agreed upon ultimate goal. Slave colonies have lots of "output".
"Everything becomes more expensive" is vague and unsupported enough to be noise.
"Immigrants create prosperity" is dime store propaganda and noise. It isn't necessarily true nor false. Your presentation of it is negatively persuasive, howerever.
Your statement about "people who want to participate should have the right even if it hurts others" is simply a zero borders argument to permanently bottom out most wages. It isn't a pro technology argument. Couching its opposition as an anti-tech argument is bizarre mental gymnastics that isn't cogent.
"People are scared of change" is a generalized a bullying tactic meant to insult people in case none of your other arguments hit the mark.
Your argument that labor "competition" can't be limited by borders, lest society becomes uncompetitive and catastrophic, isn't born out by the evidence in any productive nation to include Germany. It's also a statement that is embarassed by your thesaurus abuse of alarmist adjectives. Which in turn belie any confidence that your arguments are persuasive.
"Output" is vague and not an agreed upon ultimate goal. Slave colonies have lots of "output".
"Everything becomes more expensive" is vague and unsupported enough to be noise.
"Immigrants create prosperity" is dime store propaganda and noise. It isn't necessarily true nor false. Your presentation of it is negatively persuasive, howerever.
Your statement about "people who want to participate should have the right even if it hurts others" is simply a zero borders argument to permanently bottom out most wages. It isn't a pro technology argument. Couching its opposition as an anti-tech argument is bizarre mental gymnastics that isn't cogent.
"People are scared of change" is a generalized a bullying tactic meant to insult people in case none of your other arguments hit the mark.
Your argument that labor "competition" can't be limited by borders, lest society becomes uncompetitive and catastrophic, isn't born out by the evidence in any productive nation to include Germany. It's also a statement that is embarassed by your thesaurus abuse of alarmist adjectives. Which in turn belie any confidence that your arguments are persuasive.
I think, If you are looking for meaning you should stop picking words individually, claiming stuff about those words and analyse the whole text instead.
I won't call you racist (although your sibling earned a flag), but you have to understand that _right now_ you're wrong. Maybe in 3 years there will be a huge economic downturn, but if Germany missed a year of immigration, they would have had a lot of worker shortage this year. Which is imho crazy, because their energy usage grew way less than their GDP last year, which is like, impossible for any country but Germany and Japan.
You missed elaborating on why you believe me to be wrong.
> because their energy usage grew way less than their GDP last year
Their main energy pipeline got blown up by an unknown assailant last year. They sanctioned Russia and thus stopped importing their energy and switched to US liquified gas for industrial use that's being shipped by ships and thus 2x more expensive. The US slapped another 2x on the price, just because they could.
> because their energy usage grew way less than their GDP last year
Their main energy pipeline got blown up by an unknown assailant last year. They sanctioned Russia and thus stopped importing their energy and switched to US liquified gas for industrial use that's being shipped by ships and thus 2x more expensive. The US slapped another 2x on the price, just because they could.
> if Germany missed a year of immigration, they would have had a lot of worker shortage this year
Personnal service and agriculture in particular.
Personnal service and agriculture in particular.
Even if Germany wouldn't have a minimum wage it wouldn't change the fact that German people won't work for the conditions you outlined. So for Germans this won't change anything anyways. Either the companies lower profits, raise prices or go bust. This way, the companies you're referring to got a few more years until the Syrians become more savvy.
You completely missed my point.
George borjas is an academic that studies this if people are curious. I think the world will come to see economic migration as a sin in the future. It’s a great idea for a generation or two, but then how long?
Your complaint isn’t racist, it’s critical of the forces of capitalism.
That’s expected and instead you’ll probably get a lecture on how great capitalism is.
That’s expected and instead you’ll probably get a lecture on how great capitalism is.
Well, 90% of the people in my office are immigrants. Pretty productive. Obviously however software engineering has been a very immigrant-heavy industry in Europe for a long time. There's just not enough German software engineers to work the huge capital that it has.
When looking at more common jobs, it's quite hard to find a German when you pass by any construction site. In fact, I can speak to a good amount of the workers in my native language.
When looking at more common jobs, it's quite hard to find a German when you pass by any construction site. In fact, I can speak to a good amount of the workers in my native language.
>software engineering has been a very immigrant-heavy industry in Europe for a long time
For those unaware, this is commonplace for various industries in the US. The H1B Visa program is a grind-house for companies like FAANG, and I imagine the EU and other European nations have taken note to utilize the same policy.
For those unaware, this is commonplace for various industries in the US. The H1B Visa program is a grind-house for companies like FAANG, and I imagine the EU and other European nations have taken note to utilize the same policy.
The EU system is much simpler than the chicanery of the US system of quotas and multiple visa categories.
If there is an EU citizen applicant suitable for the job, they get it. If there isn't, anyone can.
If there is an EU citizen applicant suitable for the job, they get it. If there isn't, anyone can.
Than goodness for that. It's a lotto on the stateside for certain which is incredibly tone deaf, but not surprising considering how the rest of our labor force is exploited at nearly every turn.
>> Obviously however software engineering has been a very immigrant-heavy industry in Europe for a long time.
That's news to me. Even in London is not that immigrant heavy unless you consider the Europeans immigrants.
That's news to me. Even in London is not that immigrant heavy unless you consider the Europeans immigrants.
I do. I immigrated from my country => I'm an immigrant.
If I were to count only people from the Middle East, Africa and Asia as immigrants, probably closer to 35%.
If I were to count only people from the Middle East, Africa and Asia as immigrants, probably closer to 35%.
>> I immigrated from my country => I'm an immigrant.
That's not really the case within the EU at least it's not black and white. You have the same rights as the "native" population. What makes you an immigrat? People in the U.S don't say they immigrate when they move from one state to another...they just move and I think that's the case with the EU as well.
That's not really the case within the EU at least it's not black and white. You have the same rights as the "native" population. What makes you an immigrat? People in the U.S don't say they immigrate when they move from one state to another...they just move and I think that's the case with the EU as well.
> What makes you an immigrant?
* I didn't speak the language when I moved here. I do now, but I still have a heavy accent that immediately tells everyone I wasn't born here.
* People still casually discriminate against me. I apply with a (fake) German name to apartments. Obviously I use my real name when I meet them and sign the documents, but it has helped me get the foot in the door many times before.
* I did go to school in Germany, and those are the the only Germans I'm friends with. I've made friends with other immigrants, but German society is much harder to break into.
* I can't vote in elections (which is fair, to be clear).
* While I understand German culture now, I don't understand it like a German does. It's kind of hard to quantify the impact of this but while I can understand what's expected of me and why people act in certain ways, it still feels like doing a dance rather than a mutual shared understanding.
All that said.. I feel pretty at place here. Living somewhere for a long time tends to do that. But you still never get over the feeling that you're some guy living in a place, rather than being of that place. It's more of a 50/50.. sometimes you feel as if you've always been there, and sometimes as if you just came that day.
* I didn't speak the language when I moved here. I do now, but I still have a heavy accent that immediately tells everyone I wasn't born here.
* People still casually discriminate against me. I apply with a (fake) German name to apartments. Obviously I use my real name when I meet them and sign the documents, but it has helped me get the foot in the door many times before.
* I did go to school in Germany, and those are the the only Germans I'm friends with. I've made friends with other immigrants, but German society is much harder to break into.
* I can't vote in elections (which is fair, to be clear).
* While I understand German culture now, I don't understand it like a German does. It's kind of hard to quantify the impact of this but while I can understand what's expected of me and why people act in certain ways, it still feels like doing a dance rather than a mutual shared understanding.
All that said.. I feel pretty at place here. Living somewhere for a long time tends to do that. But you still never get over the feeling that you're some guy living in a place, rather than being of that place. It's more of a 50/50.. sometimes you feel as if you've always been there, and sometimes as if you just came that day.
The discrimination is a different issue and depends by many factors.
It's true that you can't vote in national elections but you can vote on local elections[0].
Usually you need just 5 years(on most EU countries)to get the citizenship to able to have this remaining right vote on national elections.
Now my question to you is: are you still an immigrant after you get the citizenship? What's different?
[0] "Every citizen of the Union has the right to vote and to stand as a candidate at municipal elections in the EU country in which he or she resides under the same conditions as nationals of that country."
It's true that you can't vote in national elections but you can vote on local elections[0].
Usually you need just 5 years(on most EU countries)to get the citizenship to able to have this remaining right vote on national elections.
Now my question to you is: are you still an immigrant after you get the citizenship? What's different?
[0] "Every citizen of the Union has the right to vote and to stand as a candidate at municipal elections in the EU country in which he or she resides under the same conditions as nationals of that country."
The discrimination is because I'm an immigrant. If I was German, it would not happen. How is it a different issue?
> are you still an immigrant after you get the citizenship?
Yes. Because I immigrated here rather than being born.
> are you still an immigrant after you get the citizenship?
Yes. Because I immigrated here rather than being born.
To me it seems that you are putting yourself in a box. If you legally have the same rights you are no longer an immigrant. You are "one of them".
Based on your rationale you can end-up with race discrimination and nazi stuff. (e.g even if you are born in the same country your parents were immigrants so you are still a kind of non-native and so on).
The cultural issue goes both ways. The wave of immigration may make the natives feel discriminated as well. That doesn't make them "immigrants".
Based on your rationale you can end-up with race discrimination and nazi stuff. (e.g even if you are born in the same country your parents were immigrants so you are still a kind of non-native and so on).
The cultural issue goes both ways. The wave of immigration may make the natives feel discriminated as well. That doesn't make them "immigrants".
> If you legally have the same rights you are no longer an immigrant. You are "one of them".
Almost the same rights but not quite. You are also confining this issue to a purely legal standpoint -- my ability to travel the EU freely does not mean that I am Italian, for example.
edit: after rereading your comment, perhaps this passage refers to after I hypothetically take my citizenship. To answer that, I would consider myself then both German and an immigrant.
The point is, I do not identify as German, and Germans do not think I am German. I am influenced by German culture of course, having lived here long enough, but I am not strongly enough influenced to call myself German. I have younger siblings who are born here and have no memories of our family's homeland. I think of them as German, since they are in every way so -- they speak German, have German mannerisms and ideas, and do not understand a single bit of the culture of where I was born. They do not have German citizenship, but that doesn't matter at all since it's just who they are.
I hope this clears up my feelings on this topic.
Almost the same rights but not quite. You are also confining this issue to a purely legal standpoint -- my ability to travel the EU freely does not mean that I am Italian, for example.
edit: after rereading your comment, perhaps this passage refers to after I hypothetically take my citizenship. To answer that, I would consider myself then both German and an immigrant.
The point is, I do not identify as German, and Germans do not think I am German. I am influenced by German culture of course, having lived here long enough, but I am not strongly enough influenced to call myself German. I have younger siblings who are born here and have no memories of our family's homeland. I think of them as German, since they are in every way so -- they speak German, have German mannerisms and ideas, and do not understand a single bit of the culture of where I was born. They do not have German citizenship, but that doesn't matter at all since it's just who they are.
I hope this clears up my feelings on this topic.
I think in the end it's about who you want to be. You could become german by thinking like a german, eating like a german but speaking like a german but that may require considerable effort. What means to be german also changes as more immigrants are arriving.
That aside my point is that it's wrong to put an immigrant on a visa to Germany on equal footing with an EU citizen. The former "may be deported" at any time for various reasons while the later has *all the rights german people have.
Discrimination happens even between different regions, the most common being in the U.S(i.e souther accents). There is also race discrimination even for "native" people. That doesn't make all the black, yellow people immigrants from Africa, Asia etc.
That aside my point is that it's wrong to put an immigrant on a visa to Germany on equal footing with an EU citizen. The former "may be deported" at any time for various reasons while the later has *all the rights german people have.
Discrimination happens even between different regions, the most common being in the U.S(i.e souther accents). There is also race discrimination even for "native" people. That doesn't make all the black, yellow people immigrants from Africa, Asia etc.
Hopefully you're doing well. Leaving your home country takes a toll I imagine.
Left more than a decade ago so Germany feels like home now. Adjusting took a couple years, German culture was difficult to understand. Doing very well now, thank you for the comment.
Ah, the not-that-kind-of-foreigner, racist way of counting! Some people love to do that, don't they?
It is in Berlin, my last software job didn’t have any German developers. That’s how it is in startups. Of course, it’s going to be the opposite in a small town.
Nobody on my team is German and I'm American. We are in Berlin.
All engineers in my company are immigrants, and the official work language is english. Located in Hamburg, serving nearly exclusively German customers.
Contrary to the parent comment and what you will read here: Not very. This won't change for a long time. Syrians from 2015 earn a lot less than the median and more than 70% rely on welfare that pays out more than they earn [1]. Up to 90% of Ukranians rely on welfare [2], costing the German Government half a billion dollars in in welfare checks alone. Marrocans are three times as likely to rely on welfare / to be jobless than Germans [3]. There are three times as many jobless people with a history of migration than Germans [4].
This is not a political agenda. These are just facts.
[1]: https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/arbeitsmarkt-fuer-flu...
[2]: https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2023-10/ukraine-gefl...
[3]: https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article168661565/Tuerkischsta....
[4]: https://mediendienst-integration.de/integration/arbeitsmarkt...
This is not a political agenda. These are just facts.
[1]: https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/arbeitsmarkt-fuer-flu...
[2]: https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2023-10/ukraine-gefl...
[3]: https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article168661565/Tuerkischsta....
[4]: https://mediendienst-integration.de/integration/arbeitsmarkt...
I saw an article recently that claimed Germany was going to surpass Japan as the third largest economy, aided partially by new arrivals. So I infer they’re pretty productive! Will try to find you a link.
Surpassed because of weak Yen, not because of Germany's growth: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-24/germany-t...
Not very - https://www.iab-forum.de/en/what-do-we-know-about-the-employ...
Less than 50% are employed 5 years after arrival, in a country with 5.7% unemployment.
I imagine adults who don't speak the language, require financial assistance, etc, will be a net drain from a tax perspective on a society, esp. when you factor in the high CoL. Its hard enough for the average naturalized citizen to be a net positive from a tax perspective, let alone someone from an entirely different world. An inconvenient/unpopular, but obvious truth.
Less than 50% are employed 5 years after arrival, in a country with 5.7% unemployment.
I imagine adults who don't speak the language, require financial assistance, etc, will be a net drain from a tax perspective on a society, esp. when you factor in the high CoL. Its hard enough for the average naturalized citizen to be a net positive from a tax perspective, let alone someone from an entirely different world. An inconvenient/unpopular, but obvious truth.
That data is about refugees. You are conflating new arrivals with refugees, which is not accurate. Some people might think it is even in bad faith.
What about all the other immigrants from EU or abroad whose higher education was not paid by Germany and they immigrate to Germany? Surely that is a positive. Germany is benefiting from paid-by-somebody-else qualified applicants.
What about all the other immigrants from EU or abroad whose higher education was not paid by Germany and they immigrate to Germany? Surely that is a positive. Germany is benefiting from paid-by-somebody-else qualified applicants.
Highly educated immigrants who speak the language are a net positive, for sure.
> Highly educated immigrants who speak the language
The latter isn't really a requirement, at least when working in tech. I barely speak any German at all in my job, and I'm a German dude working at a German company. All companies I worked for since 2010 had English as "company language", and immigrants were in the majority (mostly from other European countries, but also US and Canada).
The latter isn't really a requirement, at least when working in tech. I barely speak any German at all in my job, and I'm a German dude working at a German company. All companies I worked for since 2010 had English as "company language", and immigrants were in the majority (mostly from other European countries, but also US and Canada).
Ya makes sense, with Berlin essentially being an international airport in terms of demographics. I suppose knowing English would suffice.
And it is 100% Germany's fault. Many of these people could be gainfully employed if not for Germany's beurocracy. I was abroad recently, in South Eastern Europe, and was amazed to see that in some countries there are people working who have no command of the local language, and no command of English either, and communicated in single words and with hand gestures, and they probably did not have valid work permits either. But they were working, gainfully employed and doing their job well enough. The same job (in a bakery) would require a three year trade education in Germany.
I can only agree here, because I saw it with my own eyes. If not for a group of dedicated volunteers in my town, most of the Syrian refugees would just be lost causes. The group organized transportation to job applications (it's in the sticks, no public transport, etc.), helped with paperwork, organized medical care, etc. The responsible authorities are understaffed for the problem and when staffed, you have a chance that the person in charge is actually working against the refugees. Without someone being able to read and understand the local statutes, you'd be lost.
Also your degree gets mostly not accepted for trivial reasons.
I know many engineers etc. working as taxi drivers or dish washers because their (excellent!) degree gets not accepted in DE.
At the same time industry is whining about "fachkräftemangel" - this could be a solved problem tomorrow if politics did not try to block immigrants wherever possible.
I know many engineers etc. working as taxi drivers or dish washers because their (excellent!) degree gets not accepted in DE.
At the same time industry is whining about "fachkräftemangel" - this could be a solved problem tomorrow if politics did not try to block immigrants wherever possible.
A lot of immigrant women stay home with the family, do you think that explains most of the 50% unemployment?
That would be difficult since the refugees tend not to be women.
According to the chart in the article, the employment rate looks like 56-57% for men and just under 30% for women.
To be as generous to this hypothesis as possible, we'll say 57% for men and 29% for women.
In that case, the relevant population is 71% men.
According to the chart in the article, the employment rate looks like 56-57% for men and just under 30% for women.
To be as generous to this hypothesis as possible, we'll say 57% for men and 29% for women.
In that case, the relevant population is 71% men.
Refugees are not the bulk of immigration in Germany.
Why would that even matter?
Because they're working but not in a way that is recognized by the government data which only recognizes formal labor for a proper employer.
I would go so far as to say that the employment rate is effectively always 95%+ for every population and that the only question is whether people are working in the formal economy, in school, informally working, caring, or doing any number of other activities that make up our human society.
I would go so far as to say that the employment rate is effectively always 95%+ for every population and that the only question is whether people are working in the formal economy, in school, informally working, caring, or doing any number of other activities that make up our human society.
Doing home chores does not make you employed. You can't get a mortgage with that. You don't get a pension or anything really.
In Germany if you are on parental leave caring for a child you accrue social security benefits as if you were still at your job.
> Doing home chores does not make you employed. You can't get a mortgage with that.
Maybe you can't get a mortgage, but you can get a house.
Is that actually worse than getting a mortgage?
Maybe you can't get a mortgage, but you can get a house.
Is that actually worse than getting a mortgage?
>> Is that actually worse than getting a mortgage?
I don't know but I think it becomes obvious that you are not employed the moment you want to move out. The house becomes a prison.
I don't know but I think it becomes obvious that you are not employed the moment you want to move out. The house becomes a prison.
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Germany has an ever growing pile of problems to solve though. Corruption, lobbyism, undemocratic measures, horrendous education sector, overworked employees in the most critical institutions and jobs (teachers, medical personell, doctors, firefighters, etc.), bad integration policies, failing infrastructure and politicians, who do all they can to make sure it keeps failing, and probably many more.
Gemany might not be the worst place. But it definitely has lost a lot of appeal due to all those issues.
Gemany might not be the worst place. But it definitely has lost a lot of appeal due to all those issues.
I mean, currently it looks like it's more or less treading water on population, though it has gotten out of decline, which is positive.
Always bet on Germany on the upswing. Make sure you cash out at the peak though.
The whole Europe should welcome more immigrants to have strong economy and manufacturing base like China. Europe has space for another 500 million population.
Looking at how Germany's population after WW2 peaked three times already (in the early 70s, at the turn of the century, at the end of the pandemic), the environment there doesn't support having a growing population.
Moreover, the usual source countries have a below-replacement fertility rate, so the number of prospective immigrants is dwindling.
I don't see how this could be sustainable in the long run.
Moreover, the usual source countries have a below-replacement fertility rate, so the number of prospective immigrants is dwindling.
I don't see how this could be sustainable in the long run.
No one believes the "doctors and engineers" line anymore. That mantra began dying after the 2015-2016 Cologne mass attacks on women, and every new incident since then has reduced its viability. The current pro-Hamas demonstrations throughout Europe are just the latest in a long line of such.
The Mittelstand is certainly not rushing to hire them.
The Mittelstand is certainly not rushing to hire them.
Germany is lacking workers in all types of jobs, from least to most skilled. It's reliant on every type of immigration to fill those positions.
Sure, Germany doesn't particularly need criminal immigrants, but the criminality of immigrants is wildly blown out of proportion by racists, to put it bluntly.
This is corroborated by every statistic on crime. The country has been getting safer ever year for decades. It is also corroborated by looking a little bit into which violent crime specifically becomes highly publicized. There is a lot of attention on (violent) crimes of immigrants, while even gruesome murders of e.g. foreign exchange students by locals don't ever make it further than local news.
I'm German living in Germany, and the "problems" of immigration are a total pseudo-issue. It's 95% bullshit. I've never seen any such problem with my own eyes, yet it's one of the most publicized and discussed topics in this country. It's just strange, and I can't explain it any other way than by racism.
Sure, Germany doesn't particularly need criminal immigrants, but the criminality of immigrants is wildly blown out of proportion by racists, to put it bluntly.
This is corroborated by every statistic on crime. The country has been getting safer ever year for decades. It is also corroborated by looking a little bit into which violent crime specifically becomes highly publicized. There is a lot of attention on (violent) crimes of immigrants, while even gruesome murders of e.g. foreign exchange students by locals don't ever make it further than local news.
I'm German living in Germany, and the "problems" of immigration are a total pseudo-issue. It's 95% bullshit. I've never seen any such problem with my own eyes, yet it's one of the most publicized and discussed topics in this country. It's just strange, and I can't explain it any other way than by racism.
> Sure, Germany doesn't particularly need criminal immigrants, but the criminality of immigrants is wildly blown out of proportion by racists, to put it bluntly.
Thanks. Had a good laugh at that line. :)
I remember that there was an analysis on the criminality of the Syrian refugees during the first wave. The police found that, no surprise, having more people increases the number of total criminal offences, but looking at the data in relative terms it was found that proportionally, Syrians are equally criminal as Germans.
Thanks. Had a good laugh at that line. :)
I remember that there was an analysis on the criminality of the Syrian refugees during the first wave. The police found that, no surprise, having more people increases the number of total criminal offences, but looking at the data in relative terms it was found that proportionally, Syrians are equally criminal as Germans.
You cannot overstate this point. It’s front and center of rightwing populism that „these people“ are mostly criminals, which is wrong of course.
Cologne attacks represent such a tiny fraction of immigrants. It’s like saying that 100% of Norwegian terrorist acts has been carried out by white men, and, therefore, Norwegian white men are all terrorists. Complety stupid.
The muslim generation (of which you can count the majority of immigrants to) is immensely more likely to be socially conservative, be it negative opinions on women's freedom or the acceptance of queer people and the jewish.
Why you think they would change their opinions just because they migrate to western countries is beyond me.
Why you think they would change their opinions just because they migrate to western countries is beyond me.
So, should one screen immigrants and only allow queer flag waving liberal progressives from SF in, or what is exactly your point? Many Germans would also not qualify if those were the requirements.
Isn't all of this stuff verging on thought policing?
Isn't all of this stuff verging on thought policing?
>So, should one screen immigrants and only allow queer flag waving liberal progressives from SF in, or what is exactly your point?
You're exaggerating, but in essence, yes. If you don't align with western values, please keep away.
> Isn't all of this stuff verging on thought policing?
Plenty of countries choose immigrants based on a multitude of factors. You can't even fly to the US as a visitor if you're deemed unfit.
You're exaggerating, but in essence, yes. If you don't align with western values, please keep away.
> Isn't all of this stuff verging on thought policing?
Plenty of countries choose immigrants based on a multitude of factors. You can't even fly to the US as a visitor if you're deemed unfit.
How’s that going to work?
“More likely” is how much exactly?
What you saying doesen't make any sense statistically.
Please enlighten us on the crime-ethnicity relationships in Germany.
You can play a drinking game for every time the word “migration-background” is mentioned
But they are also not exactly against hiring them, as they are not yet used to the fair level of wages they should demand. Cheap labor = good, right?
I know of cases where equally qualified (University degree, etc.) Syrians received 20% to 30% less than Germans.
I know of cases where equally qualified (University degree, etc.) Syrians received 20% to 30% less than Germans.
> No one believes the "doctors and engineers" line anymore.
I always found that line to be rather interesting. German is a very difficult language and hard to master. To go about everyday life as an immigrant, you'll either need to live in a big city or somehow magically master German. Also, large parts of Germany are increasingly known for not being exacyl welcoming for people of non-german descent.
The notion that all people want to come here and highly specialized immigrants will come rushing through the door is kind of arrogant and typically ignorant. Germany is reliant of net-immigration over the coming decades if the economy wants any hope of workforce availability.
> That mantra began dying after the 2015-2016 Cologne mass attacks on women, and every new incident since then has reduced its viability. The current pro-Hamas demonstrations throughout Europe are just the latest in a long line of such.
negativity bias and media coverage are fascinating things. Not to take a way from the severity of the silvester attack, none of the issue you just mentioned is in any way representative of the average immigrant or refugee population. Even the "hamas demos" that received extreme media covereage were fairly small and peaceful on most occasions (also worth mentioning that demonstrating for piece in Gaza is not equal to demonstrating for Hamas, although there were instances).
> The Mittelstand is certainly not rushing to hire them.
That generalized and somewhat racist rant is missing one key factor: they have to and they want to. Birthrates have been in continuous decline since the 70s and now boomers are also about to completely enter their pensions. The dependency ratio for the coming decade(s) is looking bleak. Also, as a result of declining births, you people entering the workforce is very much down. if you want to survive as company, you'll need workers. If you want workers, there is a high chance you'll also have to hire immigrants and refugees. Most companies want this, the remaining hurdle isn't racism or the unwillingness to hire them, it's as always the German bureaucracy
I always found that line to be rather interesting. German is a very difficult language and hard to master. To go about everyday life as an immigrant, you'll either need to live in a big city or somehow magically master German. Also, large parts of Germany are increasingly known for not being exacyl welcoming for people of non-german descent.
The notion that all people want to come here and highly specialized immigrants will come rushing through the door is kind of arrogant and typically ignorant. Germany is reliant of net-immigration over the coming decades if the economy wants any hope of workforce availability.
> That mantra began dying after the 2015-2016 Cologne mass attacks on women, and every new incident since then has reduced its viability. The current pro-Hamas demonstrations throughout Europe are just the latest in a long line of such.
negativity bias and media coverage are fascinating things. Not to take a way from the severity of the silvester attack, none of the issue you just mentioned is in any way representative of the average immigrant or refugee population. Even the "hamas demos" that received extreme media covereage were fairly small and peaceful on most occasions (also worth mentioning that demonstrating for piece in Gaza is not equal to demonstrating for Hamas, although there were instances).
> The Mittelstand is certainly not rushing to hire them.
That generalized and somewhat racist rant is missing one key factor: they have to and they want to. Birthrates have been in continuous decline since the 70s and now boomers are also about to completely enter their pensions. The dependency ratio for the coming decade(s) is looking bleak. Also, as a result of declining births, you people entering the workforce is very much down. if you want to survive as company, you'll need workers. If you want workers, there is a high chance you'll also have to hire immigrants and refugees. Most companies want this, the remaining hurdle isn't racism or the unwillingness to hire them, it's as always the German bureaucracy
> being exacyl welcoming for people of non-german descent.
To be fair, Germans are not very welcoming to other Germans either.
To be fair, Germans are not very welcoming to other Germans either.
>> The immigration wave has changed the demographics
Yes. And it will not be a German culture anymore as Germany is colonized.
Yes. And it will not be a German culture anymore as Germany is colonized.
Is it possible to instill the thing one learns about German culture into the immigrants, or at least, their children? I'd say yes. Are they up to the task? There aren't many countries that have the courage to indoctrinate their cultural values into their own children, let alone the immigrants.
I think that would qualify as ethnic cleansing to some extent, and don't think it would be moral. At the very least countries should be very upfront about their intentions if that is their plan. Imagine if you had to emigrate to China and was forcefully interned in a re-education camp...
Looking at the US, it does just fine integrating different cultures from all over the world. All the problem ethnicities in Europe are gainfully employed model citizens in the US. One should maybe ask what is going wrong in Europe before resorting to extreme measures.
Looking at the US, it does just fine integrating different cultures from all over the world. All the problem ethnicities in Europe are gainfully employed model citizens in the US. One should maybe ask what is going wrong in Europe before resorting to extreme measures.
Oh, wow. No, I wasn't referring to ethnic cleansing.
In the US, for example, Hollywood does an excellent job of instilling national pride. Three types of people come to the US:
- Those that are rich and / or well-educated. - Those that desperately want to be in the US to come illegally. - Refugees
The wealthy / well-educated are too busy trying to climb whatever ladder they've chosen.
The illegal migrants are too busy working to make ends meet. They don't get much for free - their kids get to go to school, which they're very thankful for.
The above two categories of people came here by choice and want to become American. They aren't a drain on the system, and will add to its wealth.
The US is able to control the inflow of refugees much more than Europe can. The US also has a lot of space to let different cultures and even ethnicities realize their own American dream.
- Those that are rich and / or well-educated. - Those that desperately want to be in the US to come illegally. - Refugees
The wealthy / well-educated are too busy trying to climb whatever ladder they've chosen.
The illegal migrants are too busy working to make ends meet. They don't get much for free - their kids get to go to school, which they're very thankful for.
The above two categories of people came here by choice and want to become American. They aren't a drain on the system, and will add to its wealth.
The US is able to control the inflow of refugees much more than Europe can. The US also has a lot of space to let different cultures and even ethnicities realize their own American dream.
What is „courage“ in indoctrinating people? It’s actually dumb. Diversity of thoughts and values is where societal progress comes from, when outdated stuff gets questioned.
The important part is preventing one culture to overwhelm everything else of course, this is where many fail. Diversity must not bow to anything that wants to enforce beliefs into everyone, no matter if religions (domestic or imported) or politics or whatever.
Diversity itself is a core value in itself, however.
The important part is preventing one culture to overwhelm everything else of course, this is where many fail. Diversity must not bow to anything that wants to enforce beliefs into everyone, no matter if religions (domestic or imported) or politics or whatever.
Diversity itself is a core value in itself, however.
Unifying values that the diverse groups agree are common among each other - values that they're willing to defend against some foreign aggressor, and indoctrinate into new immigrants.
What does it mean to be British? or French? or German? What is the European dream? Is it attainable? Defendable? Teachable? It's gotta be more than the language.
What does it mean to be British? or French? or German? What is the European dream? Is it attainable? Defendable? Teachable? It's gotta be more than the language.
> Germany is not going to age quickly and it is growing in population.
Raw numbers don't matter. Culture will be deeply impacted. Also, the energy policy of Germany is catastrophic and will guarantee its doom
Raw numbers don't matter. Culture will be deeply impacted. Also, the energy policy of Germany is catastrophic and will guarantee its doom
Not if enough of the immigrants adopt the important parts of German culture. It happens easily in the US I don’t see why it can’t in Germany.
Stagnant cultures rot. Think how much culture has changed, even in the last 10 years.
Plenty of research shows that if you put people in safe places with opportunity, they of course respond very well. They also embrace very attractive concepts like freedom, human rights, fairness, etc.
Plenty of research shows that if you put people in safe places with opportunity, they of course respond very well. They also embrace very attractive concepts like freedom, human rights, fairness, etc.
All the right wing fear uttering in two short sentences. Well done!
Any wing will agree that Germany's energy policy has been bad. They shut down their nuclear production and replaced it with lignite.
> Any wing will agree that Germany's energy policy has been bad.
Very true.
> They shut down their nuclear production and replaced it with lignite.
Not really true and often a bad faith argument. While it is true that some of the output has been replaced with coal, it's a) not everything; having the coal power on unscheduled has been deemed unnecessary (with the benefit of hindsight). b) ignoring the fact that the scheduled shutdown of coal has been rescheduled to be earlier, resulting in net-savings over the original plan (which was admittedly still a massive policy failure).
Very true.
> They shut down their nuclear production and replaced it with lignite.
Not really true and often a bad faith argument. While it is true that some of the output has been replaced with coal, it's a) not everything; having the coal power on unscheduled has been deemed unnecessary (with the benefit of hindsight). b) ignoring the fact that the scheduled shutdown of coal has been rescheduled to be earlier, resulting in net-savings over the original plan (which was admittedly still a massive policy failure).
This is simply false.
It's trivial to see from the statistics(https://www.cleanenergywire.org/sites/default/files/styles/g...) that the phaseout of nuclear energy was matched by an increase in renewables, whilst lignite and coal production has remained static.
The energy policy is catastrophic, there is nothing right wing there. The wind power revolution will not happen, at least not nearly as fast or cheap as the government is planning.
I am continually astounded by the absolute obsession of YCN with German nuclear power stations, or the lack of them. Not a single thread about Germany fails to attract some comment about energy policy, no matter how tenuous the connection.
If this was replicated then every German citizen would spend several hours every day discussing it. In reality I can't recall ever having a face to face conversation about it.
If this was replicated then every German citizen would spend several hours every day discussing it. In reality I can't recall ever having a face to face conversation about it.
So, nuclear? Isn't faster nor cheaper. Coal? A no-go due to polution. Gas? To expensive for electricity in the current, read since at least for the last ten years, market. Leaves hydro, oil, wind and solar.
But yeah, Germany financed and caused Russias war with Ukraine by impoeting gas from Putin, I know.
But yeah, Germany financed and caused Russias war with Ukraine by impoeting gas from Putin, I know.
Shutting down the three last nuclear reactors in the middle of an energy crisis was probably one of the most moronic things in world politics during the last 5000 years.
The decision to shut the down was met years before said crisis. Run times were extended as much as possible (safety, maintennace, fuel).
Edit: I didn't know that we have reliable information geo politics dating back to almost 3000 BC. Regardless, the last decade has plenty examples of worse decisions than Germany buying gas from Russia.
No, it was done for ideological reasons. And it was stupid as hell.
agree on the stupid decision. but more important: the way forward.
- building up new nuclear reactors takes _many_ years and is still quite expensive, so its not a short-term solution. long term due to climate change the cooling might be a problem (like france already has issues in the summer when rivers run dry and they had to throttle nuclear reactors) - fossils must be phased out, not an option - hydrogen is at best a storage option for surplus energy (like solar), but highly inefficient to begin with - renewables are already cheaper than everything else and prices are dropping still [1]
so either people want to believe climate crisis doesn't exist and want to double down on fossils, or believe nuclear will solve it but it can't right now, or hope that some miracle happens somehow and energy/climate will be a solved problem somehow.
I'd prefer to focus on the here and now, which means renewables, plus some storage in any form, instead of beating dead horses over and over again.
---
[1] https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2023/10/11/radical-energy...
- building up new nuclear reactors takes _many_ years and is still quite expensive, so its not a short-term solution. long term due to climate change the cooling might be a problem (like france already has issues in the summer when rivers run dry and they had to throttle nuclear reactors) - fossils must be phased out, not an option - hydrogen is at best a storage option for surplus energy (like solar), but highly inefficient to begin with - renewables are already cheaper than everything else and prices are dropping still [1]
so either people want to believe climate crisis doesn't exist and want to double down on fossils, or believe nuclear will solve it but it can't right now, or hope that some miracle happens somehow and energy/climate will be a solved problem somehow.
I'd prefer to focus on the here and now, which means renewables, plus some storage in any form, instead of beating dead horses over and over again.
---
[1] https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2023/10/11/radical-energy...
Sorry, but what the actual f**?
It's the single worst decision ever made in the history of mankind? Replacing some power stations of one type with some renewables of another type, without any disruption to the functioning power grid?
World War 1. World War 2. China's Great Leap Forward. Stalin's Five Year Plan. The Vietnam war. All worse than changing the mix of the European energy grid by a few %?
I just don't get it. Please, please, someone explain this to me, why people say things like this. Is there some right wing website going endlessly on about how Germany is a doomed failed state, as some kind of way to relive glory days of the Allied victory?
It's the single worst decision ever made in the history of mankind? Replacing some power stations of one type with some renewables of another type, without any disruption to the functioning power grid?
World War 1. World War 2. China's Great Leap Forward. Stalin's Five Year Plan. The Vietnam war. All worse than changing the mix of the European energy grid by a few %?
I just don't get it. Please, please, someone explain this to me, why people say things like this. Is there some right wing website going endlessly on about how Germany is a doomed failed state, as some kind of way to relive glory days of the Allied victory?
Germany is not a lone island. Central Europe countries like Poland, Czechia, Romania or Hungary are very much integrated into German supply chain.
German imports and expoets for July 2023:
>> Destinations In July 2023, Germany exported mostly to United States (€13.6B), France (€9.23B), Netherlands (€8.64B), China (€8.27B), and Poland (€6.97B), and imported mostly from China (€12.8B), Netherlands (€8.55B), United States (€7.7B), Poland (€6.43B), and Italy (€6.26B)
Source: https://oec.world/en/profile/country/deu/
>> Destinations In July 2023, Germany exported mostly to United States (€13.6B), France (€9.23B), Netherlands (€8.64B), China (€8.27B), and Poland (€6.97B), and imported mostly from China (€12.8B), Netherlands (€8.55B), United States (€7.7B), Poland (€6.43B), and Italy (€6.26B)
Source: https://oec.world/en/profile/country/deu/
Netherlands are doing a great job at being a port of Europe.
For a lot of reasons, and they do great in deed!
Not everything can be measured by money and bulk volume; some things are measured by vitality and irreplacement. How do you measure CERN or ASML?
In twrms of supply chains, industry and international trade? Not at all. Except for ASMLs imports and exports.
I think you would have to say something similar about Japan (even if Japan is a chain of Islands). Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, China - I don't think the Japanese economy would be the same today without their neighbors?
Not exactly, as those economies compete as much as cooperate, while EU is a single market - at least in the "no tariffs and free flow of goods" sense.
would any country?
Correct. A fair amount of larger companies, grocery store chains, etc. in Eastern EU states are owned by German companies.
Grocery store chains aren't very relevant in this discussion.
I'm talking about stuff like Mercedes-Benz engine factory in Jawor, seats from Groclin, Michelin and Bridgestone tyre factories, or the fact that Poland is world's second biggest battery manufacturer (ahead of US) - all of that is used in German car manufacturing supply chain.
I'm talking about stuff like Mercedes-Benz engine factory in Jawor, seats from Groclin, Michelin and Bridgestone tyre factories, or the fact that Poland is world's second biggest battery manufacturer (ahead of US) - all of that is used in German car manufacturing supply chain.
Romania is just barely behind Finland as the eastern most mainland EU country. Do you have any argument for calling it Central European?
These labels are more cultural than strictly geographic. Western Romania could indeed be considered as Central Europe, as “Central Europe” has generally meant “associated with the Austro-Hungarian Empire.” The border between the Russian and AH empires is a good line for dividing Eastern and Central Europe IMO.
Eastern and Southern Romania was part of Ottoman Empire, not russian one. The one that was occupied by russia is now called Moldova.
I didn't say anything about Eastern and Southern Romania, just Western. Eastern and Southern Romania has a mix of Ottoman and Russian influences and I think in general most people refer to it as something like, Balkans / Eastern Europe. Eastern Europe proper is more Ukraine and Russia.
There are very, very, very few Russian influences on eastern and southern Romania. While Russia did at one point claim the area as its sphere of influence, it never managed to exert any cultural influence. Rather, in those regions, the foreign cultural influences that are not Ottoman are Greek, due to the influence of the Phanariots, and then French due to the massive francophilia of the 19th century. And in fact, even Austro-Hungary arguably had more impact on non-Austro-Hungarian Romania (the Romanian dialects of even those regions abound in loanwords from German and Hungarian) than Russia.
The Russian Empire and then Soviet Union were one of the three largest powers in the region for hundreds of years. Yes, they had an influence on Romania, if a lesser one than the other two powers.
Some political influence on the choices available to the authorities, but not a cultural influence on the population of the country. Even when Romania was part of the Eastern Bloc, the heavy Soviet political influence lasted just two decades before Ceausescu took an independent course and made his own overtures to the West. Romanians know bugger-all about Russia, their language has almost no Russian loans, their Orthodox religion follows the Greek liturgical conventions, not the Russian ones, and French was the main foreign language taught even during the socialist era.
Do you possess any actual familiarity with this country?
Do you possess any actual familiarity with this country?
Romania is a small country historically sandwiched between three larger powers. Like literally every other country in world history, it has been influenced by its neighbors. Romania's existence as an independent country and Orthodox Christianity being two huge examples.
This is...common sense. I really don't get what your hostile obstinance is about, but I'm not interested in arguing over these nonsensical minor points any further.
This is...common sense. I really don't get what your hostile obstinance is about, but I'm not interested in arguing over these nonsensical minor points any further.
Russia was the last country in the region to convert to Orthodoxy. The Balkans had already been Orthodox before Russia due to Byzantine influence. And as I said, even at a late date those regions of Romania were under heavy Greek influence due to Phanariot rule. If you believe that Russia has anything to do with Romania’s Orthodoxy, that is such a basic factual error that, again, I question that you possess any actual familiarity with the history of the country and its culture.
I didn't say Orthodoxy came to Romania from Russia. Russia was the largest and dominant Orthodox power in the region for hundreds of years. This identity was practically the Russian Empire's foreign policy, as the independence of Romania happening because of Russia should make obvious. See also: Serbia. Unless you think that Romania is in between Russia and Serbia but has no cultural influence from either...?
P.S., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phanariots#Russian_influence
P.S., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phanariots#Russian_influence
Again, what you are talking about is political influence on rulers, not cultural influence on the population. In that regard, claiming that an independent Romania should be seen as marked by Russian influence would be like claiming that independent Vietnam is Russian-influenced. Any political ties and military aid involved a tiny amount of people and never affected the culture of either country.
On the other hand, late imperial Russia saw all the Orthodox lands down to Constantinople as its legitimate sphere of influence, so while the OP likely made a mistake, the notion of an Austro-Hungarian vs. Russia dividing line still has some sense to it.
Sure, the tendency of russia seeing random foreign lands as their own is at least as old as Ivan the Terrible.
Considering that Europe's border in the East is the Ural Mountains range I'd say "Central Europe" is actually quite accurate?
(also - stating the obvious - but "Europe" and "EU" are entirely different things)
(also - stating the obvious - but "Europe" and "EU" are entirely different things)
Western, Central, Northern and Eastern Europe were always socioeconomic/sociocultural definitions. Geography on itself is not really that relevant.
Europe is not defined by EU borders. The distance from Bucharest to Atlantic Ocean is smaller than to Ural mountains.
It's based on conversion of GDP metrics to USD. The JPY has been depreciating less due to Japan and more due to the rapid appreciation of USD post-COVID and post-Interest Rate Hike. It's a larger example of why GDP/GDP PPP tend to not be used alone when analyzing economies.
Doesn't that mean that the USD/EUR is deprecating at the same rate thereby balancing this effect ?
Good question. The Euro is depreciating as well, but not at the same rate as JPY because Japan has some of the lowest interest rates in the OECD as they didn't have an inflation problem unlike the Eurozone and US. Generally speaking, among major currencies, interest rates are highest in USD, then Euro, and the Yen has largely remained consistent since the 90s
Japan Yen is the only currency that still continue negative interest and QE. https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/interest-rate
"Helped by weak yen" is a little misleading. It suggests the exchange rate exogenously impacts the relative value of an economy's output. If Japan was producing a ton of good stuff, and then its money devalued, why would that reduce the value of what it made?
In fact, of course, exchange rates are endogenous. The value of the yen reflects (among other things) the relative value of what Japan makes to what other countries make. If a currency's value falls (and there was no change in the money supply) what it means is people value that country's output this year less than they did last year.
In fact, of course, exchange rates are endogenous. The value of the yen reflects (among other things) the relative value of what Japan makes to what other countries make. If a currency's value falls (and there was no change in the money supply) what it means is people value that country's output this year less than they did last year.
Exchange rates reflect cash flows not just total economic output.
Foreign investors poring money into a country will prop up exchange rates even without any changes in total economic output. Similarly outflows from foreign investment dividends depress exchange rates.
Foreign investors poring money into a country will prop up exchange rates even without any changes in total economic output. Similarly outflows from foreign investment dividends depress exchange rates.
I thought (not being in finance) that the exchange rate reflects supply and demand for Yen, which depends on:
* Demand for products sold internationally and denominated in Yen (not US dollars, for example).
* Demand due to perceived risk of the Yen's future value
* Supply of Yen printed by the government
* Supply due to Yen sold to purchase imports
Maybe some other things I'm not thinking of.
* Demand for products sold internationally and denominated in Yen (not US dollars, for example).
* Demand due to perceived risk of the Yen's future value
* Supply of Yen printed by the government
* Supply due to Yen sold to purchase imports
Maybe some other things I'm not thinking of.
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Interesting to compare the optimism in the article and comments with a recent video by Peter Zeihan: The End of Germany as a Modern Economy.
https://youtu.be/xmEhTFjQB1g?si=C02yoH1nFWmzWPlQ
https://youtu.be/xmEhTFjQB1g?si=C02yoH1nFWmzWPlQ
The Yen will ultimately go to zero as Japan ages and depopulates. Germany is boosted by greater immigration, but otherwise native Germans aren’t having many kids either.
Germany has its problems, but the critical issues are mostly down to 3 things:
- energy policies of the past decades was a desaster, mostly ruined by the conservatives. Germany was at some point a pioneer of solar tech, but it got crushed by economic policies favoring fossils, now china owns the majority of this rapidly growing market, and Russian pipelines are gone.
- extremely strong car manufacturer lobby that gets heavy subsidies and economic policies favoring car infrastructure. Public transport got defunded/privatized, transitioning to non-fossil transport options is fought tooth and nail, with heavy propaganda, so that many citizens even are aligned with that.
- heavy industry/manufacturing is a big chunk of BIP. Directly hit by the energy price hikes.
… all of which in general can be solved with cheap/abundant energy. Turning the expensive fossil dependency into green energy would be a literal multiplier for everything else in the country. We don’t have nuclear energy anymore (wrong decision imo) but lots of EU neighbors that do and help us in times of need.
It’s not even a technical problem anymore, and we have a shit ton of SME across the country that can engineer stuff. It’s purely a lobbyism/corruption problem with political will and media campaigns. Right now we have a Green Party in our government and they get an absurd amount of flak for trying to turn the ship around after decades of conservative corruption and mismanagement. Everything they do gets spinned into doomsday speech from the right to the point of blatant lying, and ordinary people just want to believe it.
I have no idea how to fix these hatestorms and misinformation amounts going around. But the point is: if we somehow manage to get into large scale renewable energy, BIP will skyrocket.
- energy policies of the past decades was a desaster, mostly ruined by the conservatives. Germany was at some point a pioneer of solar tech, but it got crushed by economic policies favoring fossils, now china owns the majority of this rapidly growing market, and Russian pipelines are gone.
- extremely strong car manufacturer lobby that gets heavy subsidies and economic policies favoring car infrastructure. Public transport got defunded/privatized, transitioning to non-fossil transport options is fought tooth and nail, with heavy propaganda, so that many citizens even are aligned with that.
- heavy industry/manufacturing is a big chunk of BIP. Directly hit by the energy price hikes.
… all of which in general can be solved with cheap/abundant energy. Turning the expensive fossil dependency into green energy would be a literal multiplier for everything else in the country. We don’t have nuclear energy anymore (wrong decision imo) but lots of EU neighbors that do and help us in times of need.
It’s not even a technical problem anymore, and we have a shit ton of SME across the country that can engineer stuff. It’s purely a lobbyism/corruption problem with political will and media campaigns. Right now we have a Green Party in our government and they get an absurd amount of flak for trying to turn the ship around after decades of conservative corruption and mismanagement. Everything they do gets spinned into doomsday speech from the right to the point of blatant lying, and ordinary people just want to believe it.
I have no idea how to fix these hatestorms and misinformation amounts going around. But the point is: if we somehow manage to get into large scale renewable energy, BIP will skyrocket.
The new renewable policies they passed last year seem positive:
https://www.renewableenergymagazine.com/panorama/germany-app...
As long as they don't get voted out and replaced by far right goons with conspiracy theories about heat pumps then Germany should do okay.
https://www.renewableenergymagazine.com/panorama/germany-app...
As long as they don't get voted out and replaced by far right goons with conspiracy theories about heat pumps then Germany should do okay.
The problem is that it’s a real thread right now. Again rightwingers may ruin the show for everyone.
> Public transport got defunded/privatized
Source? I haven't seen any of that. With the Deutschlandticket, stuff even got cheaper.
Source? I haven't seen any of that. With the Deutschlandticket, stuff even got cheaper.
I think GP is referring to Deutsche Bahn.
Privatization of deutsche Bahn comes to mind, and Deutschlandticket is actively being sabotaged by the neoliberals, so it might no longer exist next year for „fiscal reasons“ - even though it costs less than some miles of just another autobahn in berlin
db is not private. Check your facts.
The facts are that Deutsche Bahn AG was privatised in the mid 90s, though all of the company’s shares are being held by the German government. Legally speaking, Deutsche Bahn AG is an independent commercial entity, whose exclusive owner is the German republic.
An entity which does not earn money, is controlled by goverment, and gets heavily subsized by the goverment. Usually the stuff we assoziated with state - own companies and not very far away from a goverment office.
Sound state owned to me.
Its worst of both worlds tbh. You have the usual private corp management structure and siphoning of profits (not to the state shareholder, but to everythign else from consulting firms to "favorite" contractors) instead of longer term infrastructure investments being done. And you have the slowness of change, regulations/processes and non-hungry employees working for a public entity.
I get the GDP stats, but we already heard how Russia is weaker than Italy, and so on.
There is India, Russia, Brazil... Is Germany really bigger than them?
There is India, Russia, Brazil... Is Germany really bigger than them?
> how Russia is weaker than Italy
Isn't it?
I don't see how anyone could argue than Germany's economy isn't much bigger than that of Russia or Brazil.
Isn't it?
I don't see how anyone could argue than Germany's economy isn't much bigger than that of Russia or Brazil.
> There is India, Russia, Brazil... Is Germany really bigger than them?
Economically, yes, and for decades if not for your lifetime depending on your age and how we account for East Germany. India and Brazil being in the conversation is a 21st century phenomenon (a very good one!).
Economically, yes, and for decades if not for your lifetime depending on your age and how we account for East Germany. India and Brazil being in the conversation is a 21st century phenomenon (a very good one!).
The US refer to them as "multiethnic democracies" (2008), I wonder if they'll be split at some point (too big), it's already kinda happening in Brazil, Lula ordered to protect the amazon and "its people"
There was a map shared during the CSCE that pictured the different regions of Russia, I can't find the article anymore.. sad
There was a map shared during the CSCE that pictured the different regions of Russia, I can't find the article anymore.. sad
> Lula ordered to protect the amazon and "its people"
How does protecting the very small minority in the Amazon cause a 'split' of Brazil, in any significant sense? They could create a national park too.
How does protecting the very small minority in the Amazon cause a 'split' of Brazil, in any significant sense? They could create a national park too.
When a leader of a country associate a piece of land with a minority and call it "its people", they acknowledge some form of independence
How does [that] ... cause a 'split' of Brazil, in any significant sense?