Doesn't matter anyway what exactly they are saying.
On one side you can interpolate in what direction it can go, than you can also add the general speed we are currently seeying and then you can try it out yourself.
The conclusion?
1. its clear that currently its critical to be aware of whats going on. With this you can act sooner or be part of this
2. if it hits hard but not too hard, you might have an advantage because you know how to use it
3. if its stalls you can reduce your effort in this area
I'm not doing this to be patronising, more like telling people or myself that assumptions i make, are just not necessarily true for everyone.
And weirdly enough, a Task like sorting a file with data in it, if you are not a professional, windows offers very if not non single way of doing this. You would need to understand file types, understand that csv can be imported for excel, you need excel, than you need to understand excel how to sort stuff in it.
The ffirst thing I do in Excel is select the pseudo table and click on table -> insert to make it a sortable / real table. I showed this to every one in my Team full of studied CS people because non of them knew this.
The power to the people is not us the developers and coders.
We know how to do a lot of things, how to automate etc.
A billion people do not know this and probably benefit initially a lot more.
When i did some powerpoint presentation, i browsed around and draged images from the browser to the desktop, than i draged them into powerpoint. My collegue looked at me and was bewildered how fast I did all of that.
Its clear that it will go in this type of direction but Anthropic announced managed agents just a week ago and this again with all the biuld in connections and tools will help so many non computer people to do a lot more faster and better.
I'm waiting for the open source ai ecosystem to catch up :/
Its not the same. Its clearly shit to replace flour with sawdust.
Having different opinions on AI/LLMs doesn't make the use of it the same as replacing flour with sawdust.
The AI 'image' slop for example, i don't think its bad. But i also don't think it takes anything from a real artist. It takes jobs from people with drawing skills but it doesn't change anything for an artist.
LLMs help already a lot because plenty of normal people do not have programming skills. Evaluating test results is a lot harder if you do not know how to program or how to use a computer.
But LLMs compute requirement is so high that it pushes the boundaries of compute, memory and memory bandwidth which is fundamental for curing diseases.
LLMs math / neural networks can and are used for medical research. Simulating a whole body with proteins, cells etc. will bring us the breakthrough we need.
Nothing in modern medicin research is withoout compute.
I think he is to pesimistic, a tool is a tool and if AI progresses without hitting a ceilling, i will see a potential future of a society which might explore space.
Musks SpaceX Keynote was ridiculous, don't get me wrong, but we will be able to see AI progress in the next 5 years which will give us some kind of gut feeling were the journey can go.
Also AI solves another problem: Compute. It was clear that we want some kind of compute but its like with 4k; We have 4k for ages now but it is not the default resolution on all displays sold. We stoped pushing the boundaries because invest is not here. People do not bother too much with it.
With AI and the richest companies and people want to see what happens, pushes the envolope a lot faster, pushes us to find solutions.
This AI Compute based on ML/Neuroal Networks can also be used for physics simulation, protein folding, and everything else.
Stoping technology is not an option and not a solution. Education is. We need to educate people.
On one side you can interpolate in what direction it can go, than you can also add the general speed we are currently seeying and then you can try it out yourself.
The conclusion?
1. its clear that currently its critical to be aware of whats going on. With this you can act sooner or be part of this
2. if it hits hard but not too hard, you might have an advantage because you know how to use it
3. if its stalls you can reduce your effort in this area