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abstractmath

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abstractmath
·ano passado·discuss
similar to how Anthropic released Claude 4 shortly after the Sam & Jony announcement.

it's super competitive, which should be good for innovation, but there's also significant incentive to use PR tactics to sell that innovation for much more than it's worth.

Sam's comments about how we're super close to AGI fall flatter-than-ever, after the latest model releases (from all players) and the Apple paper confirming what everybody already knew.
abstractmath
·há 4 anos·discuss
The interesting and important question is what are the priors.

Since all of the priors here are speculative, there’s no use in pulling out Bayes.

The outcome given Bayes is the same as the outcome without Bayes, just a bit noisier ;)
abstractmath
·há 4 anos·discuss
I’m not arguing that laying people off is nearly as hard as getting laid off.

I’m arguing against the idea that if you’re a manager or have money, that moments like this are easy or that there’s no empathy. i’m not saying that anyone should feel bad for directors, CEOs, or whoever, but they shouldn’t paint a ridiculous straw man either.

You could even argue that in Zuck’s position, money is a non-factor. He has more than enough money. What he doesn’t have is a beloved and future-proof company, and these layoffs only push him further from that.
abstractmath
·há 4 anos·discuss
Look at the companies on http://layoffs.fyi

Lots of small and medium sized companies, and I know for some that it was not their last move before going under.

We had a hiring boom driven by cheap money, which is now ending. Now we get the inverse.

Has nothing to do with insane large corps and saintly SMBs.
abstractmath
·há 4 anos·discuss
> Large corporations are insane. Every small and medium company would wait to do layoffs until it threatened the business. Some even until after that point

This is super idealized. How many layoffs have been going on in startup land recently?
abstractmath
·há 4 anos·discuss
But both of your assumptions imply the conclusion, so the math doesn’t actually seem helpful at all.
abstractmath
·há 4 anos·discuss
Have you ever managed or led people?

Did you find it easier or harder than when you didn’t manage people?

Have you ever laid someone off or fired them? Was it so easy?