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At a minimum, thanks for the reminder about keeping failure in perspective. It is so easy to fall into failure aversion mode and not even realize it can hold you back.
> This also commits the logical fallacy of ascribing superpowers to the bad guys cooking up viruses while assuming the good guys are sitting on their duffs letting bad things happen
It's the other way around. The "good guys" are cooking up viruses and publishing them as science (in this case at least)
His scenario is hypothetical with quick estimates of mortality and incubation period. This virus has been created in the lab and the formula is known. How is he then underestimating the technical feasibility?
>If we're instead talking about a mythical time in the future when we do understand enough biology to engineer something like this, one would have to assume the good guys possess the knowledge to develop countermeasures.
This is naive.
Understanding of weapons != Knowledge of countermeasures (since were talking about logical fallacy)