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derf_

2,692 karmajoined há 14 anos

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derf_
·há 3 dias·discuss
I drove an '89 Prelude (with a carburetor!) that had been used hard before I acquired it, until it left me stranded by the side of the road one too many times. I am happy to report that a 2000 Acura Integra is a very reasonable upgrade. Basically the same car, except better (fuel injection, ABS brakes, airbags, etc.). The only thing I miss is that the Prelude had a tighter turning radius.
derf_
·há 9 dias·discuss
At one point in I think 2012 three of us who normally all live in different countries were riding in the same car in Australia. We advised the driver to be extra careful (she was dating one of us, so incentives were aligned).

But it is nice to hear that you have been thinking of us, too.
derf_
·há 10 dias·discuss
A steady amount of inflation allows interest rates to be near zero or even negative in real terms without actually being negative in nominal terms. Negative (real) interest rates are sometimes a necessary policy tool (see: 2008...2021), but negative nominal rates are difficult to implement in practice in our current regime of privately-controlled money creation via bank lending.

There are other monetary schemes that allow for negative nominal rates (100% reserve-backed lending, a.k.a. The Chicago Plan, or the gold or silver standard, etc.), and in those one does not need steady inflation. There was basically no inflation for most of the 19th century, when most currencies were backed by gold or silver. That had other drawbacks: for example, a relative inability to control the money supply. An expanding money supply following the California gold rush helped fuel speculation during the railroad boom, and the inability to expand the money supply on demand exacerbated the ensuing panic of 1873. Governments at the time did not believe it was their job to dampen the impacts of the business cycle, however.
derf_
·há 15 dias·discuss
> ...you should be forced to identify yourself for posting...

The Supreme Court has repeatedly held that the right to anonymous speech is inherent in the first amendment [1] [2]. See also The Federalist Papers or Common Sense, without which the US might not exist at all.

[1] https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/362/60

[2] https://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/93-986.ZO.html
derf_
·há 18 dias·discuss
This is a good optimization when you can use it, but it is somewhat uncommon to decode a large number of consecutive symbols using the same Huffman code. Actual compression formats switch between multiple codes, as one switches between decoding prediction modes, literals, run lengths, offsets, and etc., and more importantly, you often do not know the code that will be used for the next symbol before you have decoded the previous symbols. That all makes it rather difficult to apply in practice.
derf_
·há 19 dias·discuss
> ...it prevented massive unconstrained expansion of credit and that seems sensible.

At the height of the Great Depression (1936), some economists proposed The Chicago Plan to separate the provision of credit from the money supply by eliminating fractional reserve banking, giving better control of the increases and contractions of credit, the elimination of bank runs, and a dramatic reduction in debt. There was a recent (2012) paper from the IMF [1] that seemed to find this actually is pretty sensible, although I do not claim to be smart enough to understand all of the implications.

[1] https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/the...
derf_
·há 24 dias·discuss
> ... the government can buy the steel for $50 instead of $100.

And also lose $50 of tax revenue. I do not see how the government is any better off here.
derf_
·há 27 dias·discuss
> ...the fact they are losing money to climate change is pretty irrefutable evidence.

Insurance prices risk. If risk goes up, so do prices. They will not lose (much) money (or not for long) [1], your insurance will just get a lot more expensive, maybe to the point you can no longer afford it. If the government tries to control prices, then insurers will just exit the market, or the only entrants will be severely under-capitalized, merely providing the veneer of insurance (e.g., because your mortgage lender requires it). This is already happening in Florida and Louisiana [2]. These insurers will simply go bankrupt in the event of a catastrophe, and you will be stuck with the loss.

[1] Technically, in a competitive environment, many insurance companies will operate with a (small) underwriting loss, but they make up the difference by investing the float during the time between when they collect the premiums and when they pay out on claims. They will not operate with an unbounded loss.

[2] https://www.wsj.com/finance/small-insurance-company-hurrican...
derf_
·há 28 dias·discuss
> To this day, I am still kind of confused with that move.

I do not think that this was that confusing. People [1] looked around at the beginning of the 2010's and saw

1) Mobile usage was growing exponentially and desktop was... not [2].

2) Every mobile OS shipped their own browser by default, or even went so far as to prevent other browsers from being used at all (iOS) [3].

3) Because Android and iOS both had non-trivial marketshare, neither could be called a "monopoly" so there was no way to use anti-trust law to get Firefox on devices as was done with Windows (not that this would have been a compelling strategy even if it were possible).

People took that set of facts and concluded Mozilla needed its own mobile OS in order to stay relevant.

What they underestimated was the amount of investment needed to make such an OS and get it on devices and the amount of time it would have to exist in a state of not being very good before it could compete with the established players (who were not standing still... people forget how bad Android was in the beginning). But if you look at the actual world we ended up in, with no mobile OS from Mozilla and a total Firefox marketshare that is less than desktop Safari's, it is hard to say that initial conclusion was incorrect.

[1] Full disclosure: I was a Mozilla employee at the time, though not involved in any of these decisions.

[2] I would say "desktop was shrinking", but to everyone's surprise it actually remained fairly steady in absolute numbers, although it did become a smaller slice of a much larger pie. In 2010 everyone expected it to shrink, though.

[3] Mozilla did ship a re-skin around mobile Safari to try to get some brand presence, but was still at the mercy of what web standards Safari chose to implement, and you could hardly call it a first-class experience. Eventually iOS loosened their rules, but no one could have predicted that back then.
derf_
·há 28 dias·discuss
Any multimedia project trying to support a large number of formats, whose usage in the wild differs by orders of magnitude, is going to have code of varying quality (although quality is not strictly correlated with usage: age and complexity are also big factors, among others). GStreamer puts plugins into different categories (-good, -bad, etc.) based on things like the maturity of the code, which helps you judge what risks you are taking. With FFmpeg it is harder to know which formats are more likely to have issues. Of course GStreamer can use FFmpeg, in which case you will also have all of FFmpeg's problems.

In both cases you are best off restricting things to what you actually use.
derf_
·mês passado·discuss
> I found S&P 500 Equal Weight to be pretty attractive.

The rebalancing required to maintain equal weights means constantly selling your winners and buying more of your losers. That creates volatility drag. Stock returns are highly skewed: only about 4% of stocks outperform the market, and are responsible for most of its gains. By keeping your allocation to those stocks small through constant rebalancing, you are missing out on a large part of their gains. The vast majority of stocks underperform.

Maintaining the equal weighting also requires constant trading, which generally means higher fees. A market weighted fund, in contrast, naturally maintains its desired balance in response to price movements, without any trading.

Also, the equal weighting ignores the amount of outstanding float for each company. If the fact that NASDAQ has not (historically) been float-adjusted (a common anti-SpaceX talking point) gave you concern, this is even worse, due to the multiple orders of magnitude difference between the largest and smallest companies in the S&P. If enough money enters the equal-weight index, this can spark large amounts of buying in (relatively) small companies that is divorced from their economic performance.

The equal-weight index has outperformed the market-weighted index in some periods (not in recent memory), but with higher volatility (so worse risk-adjusted returns). That outperformance can mostly be explained by factor tilts implicit in the equal weighting (e.g., a higher allocation to mid-cap value stocks).

You would probably be better off with a mix of market-weighted funds explicitly designed to give you the factor tilts and risk exposure you want.
derf_
·mês passado·discuss
> If AI tokens were so magical in creating new value in developing software applications generally, they wouldn't be selling tokens directly.

If hardware were so magical in creating new value generally, TSMC would be designing the chips instead of selling fabrication as a service.

That is what US chip companies used to do, by the way (back when there was silicon in Silicon Valley, before they got their lunch eaten by Taiwan). If TSMC had to design all of the chips they fabricate now, they would be doing a lot less business. Conversely, if any other company that wanted to design a chip had to build their own cutting-edge fab first, NVIDIA would not exist.
derf_
·mês passado·discuss
It is not just the passive money. Many active managers are benchmarked against those indices, and you do not want to try to explain to your clients that you lagged in performance because you did not buy these stocks when your benchmark did. Sitting out would be taking a huge risk (of losing your job, which is important to you, as opposed to losing your clients' money, which is less important if your benchmark also lost money).
derf_
·mês passado·discuss
As of January, TSLA was somewhere around 2.3% of the S&P [1]. Because SpaceX will have so little float available, it would be somewhere around 0.7% if included.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500
derf_
·mês passado·discuss
> So if you wanna fix or ban PE, solve pensions.

We solved pensions. People have defined-contribution plans now. I would expect insurance float to dwarf pensions as a source of PE funding.

The real reason PE exists is because it charges high fees. The financial industry does not make products to serve customer needs, though by happy accident that sometimes happens. It makes products to charge fees. Index funds removed a big chunk of the fees that active mutual funds used to charge, so financiers went looking for a replacement.

Even if you snapped your fingers and all remaining pensions (and insurance float?) disappeared, PE is aggressively going after individual retirement accounts, now. Most insidiously, trying to work their way into the "target date" funds that are the defaults for most plans. So "solving pensions" will not make PE go away.
derf_
·há 2 meses·discuss
> Why are more and more utility providers charge based on ‘infrastructure cost’ or ‘fixed platform fee’ instead of usage fee?

Because unlike many commodities, electricity, once generated, is hard to store, yet supply must match demand in real time. You need to meet peak demand, even if normal usage is not as high. If you pay purely for usage, that might not send enough price signals to ensure that you have the necessary capacity when you need it. https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/enn/explainer-how-capac... has a more detailed overview of how markets are being structured to provide capacity, separate from actual generation.
derf_
·há 2 meses·discuss
> But I wouldn't want all the negative externalities that come when money is introduced...

Even before you get to the broader ecosystem, I wouldn't want daily standups, weekly 1:1s, on-call rotations, weekly business reviews, monthly business reviews, quarterly reports, "emergency" all-hands meetings, mandatory compliance training, constant IT churn, zero-based budgeting, fighting for headcount, constant interviewing, fighting for management buy-in (and against active attempts at management sabotage), managing up, managing down, peer reviews, performance reviews, promotion boards...

I also don't want to spend six months negotiating a contract, sign an NDA, disclose tax records to prove I have other clients, maintain liability insurance, and etc., for one week's worth of work, during which I must track every fraction of an hour and itemize everything I do, followed by two months of dealing with some archaic billing system and another three months wondering if accounts payable will ever actually send the money.

I just want to apply my decades of domain experience in a community of deserved trust and feel like someone actually gives a damn.
derf_
·há 3 meses·discuss
> ...any actual product RD and support is a real annoying cost that just cuts into the profits...

Worse, it might not generate a return. If you have enough profits, you just buy anyone who successfully produced something innovative. Let them take the risks. As Cisco used to say, "Silicon Valley is our R&D lab."

It is a very difficult mindset to argue against.
derf_
·há 3 meses·discuss
These two goals:

> ... please stop working on projects distracting from the complex and necessary work of browser and web standards stewardship.

> Ditching any direct financial ties to Google or any other browser vendor is both important and necessary...

are inherently contradictory. If you do not want Mozilla to have revenue from search vendors that also have browsers, it has to come from somewhere else. Or are you suggesting they switch the default search engine back to Yahoo [0]?

I am not trying to defend the projects they have chosen to work on, but you have to understand that reducing dependence on Google is exactly why they are working on them [1].

[0] Even when they did that, it was for the US only, and Google was still the default for most of the world.

[1] Although in this case, this appears to come from the Thunderbird organization, so unrelated to the browser. Money is fungible, though.
derf_
·há 4 meses·discuss
The TSA is responsible for more than just airports. As someone with family who works (worked) on port security in the maritime division, I would argue that Chesterton's Fence [0] applies here just as much as anywhere else.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G._K._Chesterton#Chesterton's_...