16kg is pretty standard for a male. Personally, with getting older I really love higher reps for conditioning with a 12kg but they all have their use.
I think most people are delusional though to believe they are going to stick with home kettlebell workouts if they don't like the gym. Most likely the kettlebell will be an expensive door stopper in a few months.
I have just met so few in shape people in my life that don't go to a gym. I have a pretty decent home gym and a good assortment of kettlebells but the external gym I go to just has so much more.
He makes some good arguments and is certainly better read in economics than the youtube conspiracy theory video level/back cover summary of the Creature from Jekyll Island economics most crypto enthusiast stochastic parrot back as truth.
The 24/7 crypto is a scam community is extremely odd though. I can't stand the sport of NASCAR but I can't imagine enveloping my entire thought and identity around how much I think NASCAR is a bullshit sport and trying to convince people to stop watching NASCAR.
Finding an anti-passion to that degree seems extraordinarily unhealthy mentally.
We will automate some bullshit jobs but create all kinds of new bullshit jobs that have titles that start with AI.
Thousands of titles like "AI ____ ____ Manager" that also does nothing but schedule meetings about meetings about AI.
The mistake to me is to believe bullshit jobs are the end result of some systemic inefficiency that AI is going to automate out of existence. I just don't think that is at all the case because otherwise we would just cut so many bullshit jobs right now without AI.
It is because you don't know what you are talking about when it comes to economics.
A currency that doesn't inflate, doesn't get spent. It gets horded and stops acting as a medium of exchange. Exactly what we see with crypto and why the currency part is bullshit with it.
It is just embarrassing how ignorant people into crypto are with economics. This is economics 101 stuff, most basic ideas.
To say it is a random walk is confusing a model of reality with reality.
Totally agree with the other poster though. You can pretty much prove whatever you want in the market depending on the start date and window size.
I would think the driving factor is after market earnings releases, expectations for those releases and how many there randomly happen to be during the window in question.
The standard bullshit line in the fitness industry has always been "everyone else is wrong". Practically what every single trainer ever in the world has said.
The reason is because of all the things I have done in my life, lifting is the most trivially simple activity there is. It is as complex as shoveling dirt. The only way to differentiate if trying to make money is to bullshit. Pick the weights up, put them down, eat food. It just not that complicated.
I forget what lecture it was but Feynman thought the idea of "computer science" as a bit bogus and that it is really all computer engineering.
To me, it is that at our core we are a society of marketing bullshitters. The vast majority of daily activity is marketing falsity as truth to each other in basically all context.
The problem is that it is obvious how useless and misconfigured our entire corporate management structures are with remote work so the easiest solution is to go back to the office.
The pandemic was a fun exercise in forced, real efficiency but we need to get back to the Dilbert cartoon version of life because the Dilbert cartoon characters call the shots and put a ton of time into becoming those characters.
We really got to the point of having these almost mandatory, 100% formulaic and 100% useless sex scenes in movies.
Not even sex scenes but kissing and clothes unbuttoning scenes with elevator music and maybe a bare ass shot if you the director really wanted to push the envelope.
A completely ridiculous motif that ran its course.
Duolingo was my gateway drug to Anki. I just can't imagine going back to Duolingo with the speed of going through say a 100 cards in Anki. There is just so much animation/sounds/nonsense in the way with Duolingo. It would take at least 10X longer.
There is absolutely something special about building decks too. I also get pretty much the same motivation from the timeline statistics in Anki as the streaks in Duolingo.
On the navy video I remember one of the guys mentioning they think it is a drone.
It such hubris to believe those are alien craft and not foreign military drones. As if alien craft is the more probable explanation than another country having drones the US Navy does not.
I think that underestimates the massive amount of distractions a person had to deal with being born in 2000.
I can remember being bored out of my mind and so practicing Bach on guitar for hours in 1990. There is just no way I would have done that in 2015. That feeling was gone forever the first time my modem connected to the internet.
It wouldn't be shocking that the intellectual giants of old became so because they had nothing much else to do but read and think.
I do put Wolfram in the same league as Von Nuemann in terms of not being ashamed to admit they are beyond me. I can distinctly remember getting New Kind of Science from the library, getting home and then quickly realizing there is no chance in hell I can read a 1000 pages of this.
That is a huge assumption. The simplest explanation to me is that while they have larger language models they don't have a better product than chatGPT to release. I would think building that product is what this $400m represents.
The impressive thing with chatGPT to me is how well it understand what you want even with very sparse input. Even if it gives wrong answers it still feels like you are both on the same page. That seems like the secret sauce even if a larger language model would give more correct output. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Google doesn't have anything currently that feels the way chatGPT does when it comes to interaction and now they are racing to build exactly that.
It makes me a bit sad thinking about how smart creative people in order to make a bunch of money use to form bands like this. Now they form startups in a much more dull society.
I see it as the opposite. It is amazing what the model can do with poor quantitative reasoning.
I just can't imagine adding super human quantitative reasoning is going to be that big of a stumbling block over the next decade. If anything that is probably the low hanging fruit here for a huge jump into the unknown.
I think it is really hard to say where all this goes right now when we currently don't even have good quantitative reasoning.
10 years ago we were still working on MNIST prediction accuracy. 10 years forward from here all bets are off. If the model has super human quantitative reasoning and a mastery of language I am not sure how much programming we will be doing compared to moving to a higher level of abstraction.
On the other hand, I think there will be so many new software jobs because of the volume of software built over the next 20 years. The volume of software built over the next 20 years is probably unimaginable sitting where we are.
The radar and RF on approach might make sense. I just don't see how a provocation test makes any sense though. It is hardly like America is not willing to use military force.
Really, a mistake on the part of China feels like the Occam's razor explanation to me.
It is just very hard to see the risk/reward calculation to do this intentionally with spy networks both on the ground and in space.
I think most people are delusional though to believe they are going to stick with home kettlebell workouts if they don't like the gym. Most likely the kettlebell will be an expensive door stopper in a few months.
I have just met so few in shape people in my life that don't go to a gym. I have a pretty decent home gym and a good assortment of kettlebells but the external gym I go to just has so much more.