Ask HN: Why DON'T you invest in cryptocurrencies?
20 comments
Prices are extremely high and I don't like the mental burden of the price volatility. I don't see a fundamental reason why buying now means that you can expect returns in the future. That's my actual reason. I don't mind speculation, I just don't see the reason to buy or hold crypto right now.
The twitter thread you linked to is just a joke. First of all, it assumes that crypto will keep going up. Secondly, it talks about addressing inequality which it demonstrably doesn't. Inequality is the whole point especially if crypto is a good investment - getting in early is better than getting in late; buying is better than not buying - that's inequality. Crypto reorders wealth based on who bought the most at the earliest point in time.
It rubs me the wrong way when people use these moral justifications to defend crypto because it's plainly manipulative bullshit which is used to get in more suckers so that the prices can stay up.
Then there's people talking about the technology, or finance, or economics... most of those arguments for crypto aren't just wrong but very often the exact opposite is true.
The twitter thread you linked to is just a joke. First of all, it assumes that crypto will keep going up. Secondly, it talks about addressing inequality which it demonstrably doesn't. Inequality is the whole point especially if crypto is a good investment - getting in early is better than getting in late; buying is better than not buying - that's inequality. Crypto reorders wealth based on who bought the most at the earliest point in time.
It rubs me the wrong way when people use these moral justifications to defend crypto because it's plainly manipulative bullshit which is used to get in more suckers so that the prices can stay up.
Then there's people talking about the technology, or finance, or economics... most of those arguments for crypto aren't just wrong but very often the exact opposite is true.
Ethical considerations.
Converting energy into non-productive work for financial speculation used substantially by money laundering activities is in the same category as:
Having Goldman Sachs invest my money in coal and diamond mines managed by cadres of Russian oligarchs.
Converting energy into non-productive work for financial speculation used substantially by money laundering activities is in the same category as:
Having Goldman Sachs invest my money in coal and diamond mines managed by cadres of Russian oligarchs.
For me, it is not an investment. It is gambling.
It sounds like the clearest example of a Ponzi scheme in my lifetime.
That's why you see posts like this all around the Internet. They have to keep the new investors coming in.
Smart contracts need to financially incentivize their enforcement, giving rise
to a limited circulation of casino chips for that particular blockchain. For
whatever reason human beings are compelled to speculate on limited quantities
of things whether they be baseball cards, cryptos, or comic books, even if
their intrinsic value is practically nil (well, I suppose you could wipe your
butt with the comic books).
I cannot quantify either the short or long-term risk, at all. I've followed Bitcoin since nearly the start, and I remember the bubble in 2011. It went to $31 and then fell to under $1 and did not increase over $31 again for nearly two years. I remember the 2013 bubble. It rose from about $15 to $1200 by November 2013. And then fell to $200 by January 2015. It would not exceed that again until the run up until the 2018 bubble.
So, is it a bubble now or not? I don't really know. Based on the previous pattern, if it is, in two years it could be worth 10% what I put in. Well, long term the trend is up. Those plateaus do peak again higher. Which brings me to the long-term risk problem. What if many countries move to ban or heavily regulate it -- before the next bubble? Or anything else. Technical, political, economic. Cryptocurrencies are a lot newer than gold or real estate or stocks. So many unknowns still.
So, is it a bubble now or not? I don't really know. Based on the previous pattern, if it is, in two years it could be worth 10% what I put in. Well, long term the trend is up. Those plateaus do peak again higher. Which brings me to the long-term risk problem. What if many countries move to ban or heavily regulate it -- before the next bubble? Or anything else. Technical, political, economic. Cryptocurrencies are a lot newer than gold or real estate or stocks. So many unknowns still.
The rich (a trite generalization, but leaving that aside for now), appear currently undecided about the future of cryptocurrency. Today, it's delivering good speculative returns as the supply of greater fools continues. And it's a good experiment in making cross-jurisdictional transfers easier. If at any point it actually threatens the status quo, it's easily destroyed.
So, for now, I see an opportunity for the lower (financial) classes to buy in, and make the kind of returns that they seldom see. A few more nouveau riche are no danger to the system.
But I suggest paying attention to the old adage: "invest no more than you are prepared to lose". Judicious realization of gains into a diversity of other assets will mean that when/if the music stops, you're left with something.
Personally, it doesn't pass for my ESG guidelines, and I'm prepared to forego the possible returns.
So, for now, I see an opportunity for the lower (financial) classes to buy in, and make the kind of returns that they seldom see. A few more nouveau riche are no danger to the system.
But I suggest paying attention to the old adage: "invest no more than you are prepared to lose". Judicious realization of gains into a diversity of other assets will mean that when/if the music stops, you're left with something.
Personally, it doesn't pass for my ESG guidelines, and I'm prepared to forego the possible returns.
I made a very small investment years ago and cashed out recently. I kept monitoring the ups and downs and thinking "good thing I didn't invest much". It's too volatile for my taste.
Besides that, cashing out wasn't very simple and triggered all sorts of warnings in my payment processor and bank.
Besides that, cashing out wasn't very simple and triggered all sorts of warnings in my payment processor and bank.
It feels expensive in every respect. Capital to invest, attention to avoid losses, energy to generate and support, adverse effects on other markets (GPUs and storage).
That and it all feels like a house of cards. A house of cards everyone keeps trying to convince themselves is stable and strong.
That and it all feels like a house of cards. A house of cards everyone keeps trying to convince themselves is stable and strong.
Wild speculation here but the days of centralized governance (banking) are numbered. Technology and communications are bringing sweeping social reforms to all the things. Cryptocurrencies are another step in that direction. Sure there will be mad attempts at regulation and control in the death spasms of centralized banking. Is it good or bad? Time (years) will tell. But one thing we know for sure is that it will change.
> the days of centralized governance are numbered.
If you accept that the sword slices the pen to itty bitty pieces, then fiat currencies and the muscle backing them should stick around indefinitely.
If you accept that the sword slices the pen to itty bitty pieces, then fiat currencies and the muscle backing them should stick around indefinitely.
Mostly: I don't understand it very well, and I think the bugs aren't all worked out (societally/legally).
An exhaustive discussion of my opinion is here:
https://www.rosshartshorn.net/stuffrossthinksabout/nyt_opini...
...along with some odd things about writing an opinion piece for the New York Times.
An exhaustive discussion of my opinion is here:
https://www.rosshartshorn.net/stuffrossthinksabout/nyt_opini...
...along with some odd things about writing an opinion piece for the New York Times.
I had some early and couldn't stomach the ups and downs back then, and that was when we were at $30 or so.
Then the exchanges would routinely shit the bed (or get wiped out completely) any time it was a good time to get out. Lookin' at you, YC funded startup Coinbase. And it continues to be that way.
My money is in real estate and I sleep better at night. Much better.
Then the exchanges would routinely shit the bed (or get wiped out completely) any time it was a good time to get out. Lookin' at you, YC funded startup Coinbase. And it continues to be that way.
My money is in real estate and I sleep better at night. Much better.
Because they are ponzi scheme. Edit: they are also a horribly unethical waste of energy
For some people, this is why: https://twitter.com/paul_griffiths/status/144407385177687245...
Crypto is not real but my need for money is.
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There is no way that I can purchase crypto and the crash risk is too great.
It is gambling and knowing myself I'll either become obsessed over it or lose money. Or both. :P
This thread says it all for me: https://twitter.com/RealNatashaChe/status/1444014735716851714
Disclosure: I have 99% of my net worth in cryptocurrencies since 2017. Even "cashing out" is hard since I can't find a sector or company which has better future growth expectations from these levels than the crypto space.
I basically bought real estate and left the rest in, even with the high volatility, since currently I cant seem to find a space which is more valuable than this.