Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2022?
32 comments
[deleted]
A new and deadlier 'rona wave comes by May and ...
Another pandemic hits and it's not well-managed. Everyone, exhausted and resources depleted from COVID-19, don't respond to the new threat or refuse to see it. Nobody has the political capital to call for more lockdowns or rush another vaccine.
It could well be something like Ebola, with a r0 of 1.8, and a high fatality rate. A lot of people will decide that they'd rather risk death to a disease over certain death from poverty.
It could well be something like Ebola, with a r0 of 1.8, and a high fatality rate. A lot of people will decide that they'd rather risk death to a disease over certain death from poverty.
World travel is still not as easy pre-covid due to expiring vaccination certs being required.
Lockdowns to continue throughout the world.
Some big events will be cancelled because the performer gets covid.
WFO pushed back and back due to covid outbreaks.
Lockdowns to continue throughout the world.
Some big events will be cancelled because the performer gets covid.
WFO pushed back and back due to covid outbreaks.
At least one new light water reactor switches on outside of China.
More structural economic problems derived from those of the last two years get discovered, financial stability deteriorates more and faster, consumers' trust in the future gets even worse than now.
The world will continue spinning regardless of the noises made by those of us resident on this layer of it.
I wonder what the predictions of 2020 were in late 2019 :)
Things are looking pretty euphoric in the markets today; increasing the likelihood of a great tumble from a magnificent run.
Only a matter of time until it starts to fully take into effect.
Maybe it's time to finally hit that sell button?
Only a matter of time until it starts to fully take into effect.
Maybe it's time to finally hit that sell button?
The stock market is a graph of rich people's emotions. It is orthogonal to the reality the working class experience.
What's your prediction for the fight?
Prediction?
Yes, prediction.
Pain.
Prediction?
Yes, prediction.
Pain.
US-centric.
* Mid-year elections where 34 out of 100 senate seats are up for election. This is gonna pull us apart further. I expect a lot of violence.
* Inflation will raise more and faster.
* Stock market is gonna climb even higher as more and more money are gonna get printed by the feds. (SSI is getting a 5.9% boost!)
* Many companies will abandon mandatory in-office work for most of the back office type positions.
* Mid-year elections where 34 out of 100 senate seats are up for election. This is gonna pull us apart further. I expect a lot of violence.
* Inflation will raise more and faster.
* Stock market is gonna climb even higher as more and more money are gonna get printed by the feds. (SSI is getting a 5.9% boost!)
* Many companies will abandon mandatory in-office work for most of the back office type positions.
It slowly dawns on the population that a great many of us have had a few decades slashed off of our lifespan by the after-effects of a disease that some of us still refuse to believe in.
There are likely millions in the US who are now functionally 20+ years older than they were a year ago. It's going to take a decade for this knowledge to diffuse through to everyone as the funerals of young people become the new normal.
There is a very small chance that the narrative of how this disaster happened is properly known, most likely it will continue to be buried.
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Computers still won't have capability based security, and the slow moving disaster will continue. We'll keep blaming C, programmers, hackers, and users... all the wrong causes.
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Democrats will fail to accomplish any of their stated goals (which suits the donor class just fine), and the other team will win a lot of seats. Donor control over government continues intact. In 2024 control flips, and the story repeats.
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Slowly evidence emerges that there have been many overunity devices invented in the past century that were suppressed to keep the status quo going in the fossil fuel industry.
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There's a small chance the donor class loses control... and it could go poorly.
There are likely millions in the US who are now functionally 20+ years older than they were a year ago. It's going to take a decade for this knowledge to diffuse through to everyone as the funerals of young people become the new normal.
There is a very small chance that the narrative of how this disaster happened is properly known, most likely it will continue to be buried.
---
Computers still won't have capability based security, and the slow moving disaster will continue. We'll keep blaming C, programmers, hackers, and users... all the wrong causes.
---
Democrats will fail to accomplish any of their stated goals (which suits the donor class just fine), and the other team will win a lot of seats. Donor control over government continues intact. In 2024 control flips, and the story repeats.
---
Slowly evidence emerges that there have been many overunity devices invented in the past century that were suppressed to keep the status quo going in the fossil fuel industry.
---
There's a small chance the donor class loses control... and it could go poorly.
> It slowly dawns on the population that a great many of us have had a few decades slashed off of our lifespan by the after-effects of a disease
A few decades? Do you have a citation on that?
A few decades? Do you have a citation on that?
You can't cite a self-made prediction.
Well I guess I was assuming the prediction was the realization, not the claim for harm. I predict the opposite, that the vast overreaction taken by much of the world will become to apparent to deny. Yet we'll be in too deep for most to admit it.
The phenomenon of Long Covid - leaving people with symptoms that doctor's write off as anxiety due to its novelty. Eventually we're going to learn a whole new level of stuff about how the body and immune system work as a result of studying it, but the awareness has to come first, and it's against narrative for both mainstreams to talk about it.
So your prediction is that long covid slashes decades off of life expectancy?
Yes, it certainly feels like it. Leading to the prediction.
If you look through all the reasonable predictions made in the 2020 predictions threads for the coming decade, there were only 3 mentions of pandemic, none of them close to being on point, and that had actually already started. Thus, if you want to actually have a chance of predicting things, you have to go out on a limb.
If you look through all the reasonable predictions made in the 2020 predictions threads for the coming decade, there were only 3 mentions of pandemic, none of them close to being on point, and that had actually already started. Thus, if you want to actually have a chance of predicting things, you have to go out on a limb.
How do you differentiate between long covid and a bunch of hypochondriacs?
If you haven't noticed, people love to feel fear and anxiety.
If you haven't noticed, people love to feel fear and anxiety.
I predict we'll get more and more evidence that "long covid" isn't as real as people think it is.
Some young people get heart damage from covid. Where the blood doesn't circulate properly afterwards and stays stuck in the heart where it can harden. For the unlucky a serous heart issue brought by covid could shorten life span by decades
Some people still have not had their sense of smell or brain fog clear. People who experience these side effects have their brain literally shrink in size. These symptoms are real. Whether these symptoms lead to early death is speculation. But the calling them not real is as much denial as saying Covid itself is not real.
Some people still have not had their sense of smell or brain fog clear. People who experience these side effects have their brain literally shrink in size. These symptoms are real. Whether these symptoms lead to early death is speculation. But the calling them not real is as much denial as saying Covid itself is not real.
I don't necessarily think it's long covid but also the damage that comes from being brought back from near death. The stats cover deaths and recovered, but rarely show "not fully recovered".
> Slowly evidence emerges that there have been many overunity devices invented in the past century that were suppressed to keep the status quo going in the fossil fuel industry.
Can you elaborate this? I didn't understand much of it.
Can you elaborate this? I didn't understand much of it.
[deleted]
Throughout my life I've heard rumors of people who invented 100 MPG carburetors, or other types of devices which would radically improve efficiency, or allow for freedom from the petrochemical supply chain, or power grid. There are obvious problems with any devices which actually claim to produce more power out than in, but there can be systems which actually do it by a yet undiscovered mechanism.
For example, the carbon capture threads in the past two weeks seem to be over-unity, but in an obscure way. I suspect the ultrasound and silver nanorods floating it gallium might be involved in some form of sonoluminescent fusion events, the energy of which is captured in the splitting of CO2 back into carbon and oxygen.
I suspect that because the world is actually starting to die off due to the gigatons of CO2 we've dumped into the atmosphere, this (the Carbon capture/gallium thing) might be a trial balloon by the group that controls these technologies, having hoovered them up across the past century, to see how they can keep profits while slowly letting their dependence on fossil fuel profits give way.
I'd give that a 50/50 chance of reflecting reality. If true, the future will get better. If I'm wrong, and it's a fun tale to tell at parties as the world burns.
For example, the carbon capture threads in the past two weeks seem to be over-unity, but in an obscure way. I suspect the ultrasound and silver nanorods floating it gallium might be involved in some form of sonoluminescent fusion events, the energy of which is captured in the splitting of CO2 back into carbon and oxygen.
I suspect that because the world is actually starting to die off due to the gigatons of CO2 we've dumped into the atmosphere, this (the Carbon capture/gallium thing) might be a trial balloon by the group that controls these technologies, having hoovered them up across the past century, to see how they can keep profits while slowly letting their dependence on fossil fuel profits give way.
I'd give that a 50/50 chance of reflecting reality. If true, the future will get better. If I'm wrong, and it's a fun tale to tell at parties as the world burns.
Regarding office vs wfh: the extroverts will lose; there are too many billions to be saved. The buildings will be repurposed into cheap condos or demo'd.
There will be no market crash.
There will be no real consequences for Jan 6.
Non-farm payroll numbers will continue to disappoint for months.
There will be no market crash.
There will be no real consequences for Jan 6.
Non-farm payroll numbers will continue to disappoint for months.
That my job will still suck, and will probably be even worse.
Basically that everything will continue to get worse.
Basically that everything will continue to get worse.
Crime, homelessness and drug problems continuing to get worse to the point where places like Portland Oregon either collapse into chaos or are forced to do mass sweeps / arrests.
Divorce rates climbing while marriage and fertility rates decline.