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D_Alex

1,779 karmajoined 16 лет назад
Oil and gas industry, Perth, Western Australia. Contactable via [email protected] (note I only check this e-mail once a week).

comments

D_Alex
·вчера·discuss
>Poland and the Baltics know they're next on Putin's list.

"Putin's list" is a dishonest meme, just like the "rules-based international order" that the Western nations supposedly embrace.

There is no such list, and there are no such rules. There is only deceitful propaganda used to justify geopolitical ambitions. Don't spread it.
D_Alex
·3 дня назад·discuss
It means have fun, be adventurous, bend the rules a little bit.
D_Alex
·3 дня назад·discuss
Did you feel safe, growing up?
D_Alex
·13 дней назад·discuss
And what lesson should be drawn from that?
D_Alex
·в прошлом месяце·discuss
>They'd need to sell a sub to everyone in Europe and North America.

Yep. Every man, woman and child, and even then provided we include Russia, Mexico, Cuba, Haiti etc, and, out of desperation to get to 1.5 billion, Turkey, which is in Europe a little.
D_Alex
·в прошлом месяце·discuss
That's all true... however the point that Google will get just $1 billion per year from Apple for the AI service is still insightful.

If AI use via Apple represents 10% of the total that vaguely implies that the total AI market is worth around $10 billion per year (which admittedly seems a bit low), and if it is just 1% (which also seems low) then we get $100 billion per year upper-end estimate.

Which just is not enough to justify the current valuations of AI companies.
D_Alex
·в прошлом месяце·discuss
>Seems like the simplest test would be to see if an AI can refuse a command, of its own free will

Certainly not the simplest test, since settling the concept of "free will" is really very difficult.
D_Alex
·в прошлом месяце·discuss
[flagged]
D_Alex
·в прошлом месяце·discuss
>I also think different ideas get conflated.

Yep. For example, your post conflates the idea of having a brain with the idea of having consciousness.
D_Alex
·4 месяца назад·discuss
>I think you either added an extra zero or were looking at the hyped prototypes

I thought I was clear where I was looking - here, you may check for yourself: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HESA_Shahed_136.
D_Alex
·4 месяца назад·discuss
>Iran would have to respond and thus would have to try to find a way to inflict ‘pain’ on the United States to force the United States to back off. But whereas Israel is in reach of some Iranian weapons, the United States is not.

This is too complacent for my liking. Every rusty trawler is a viable launch platform for Shahed type drones (operational range ~2500 km per Wikipedia). Nearly every US oil refinery and LNG terminal are on the coast. And then there are floating oil platforms (e.g.: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perdido_(oil_platform))

The article then says:

>One can never know how well prepared an enemy is for something.

And:

>And if I can reason this out, Iran – which has been planning for this exact thing for forty years certainly can.

I'll leave it here for y'all to ponder.
D_Alex
·4 месяца назад·discuss
2022 was abnormally high, caused largely by the disruption of gas supplies to Western Europe after sanctions on Russian gas and the destruction of the Nordstream gas pipeline.
D_Alex
·4 месяца назад·discuss
Yes, it is nothing like 2022 yet. But the concerning thing is that this may be just a beginning of a protracted event, plus the world, and especially Western Europe, is less resilient today to the disruptions in gas supply.
D_Alex
·4 месяца назад·discuss
I'm a bit underwhelmed tbh. Here is Anthropic's motto:

"At Anthropic, we build AI to serve humanity’s long-term well-being."

Why does Anthropic even deal with the Department of @#$%ing WAR?

And what does Amodei mean by "defeat" in his first paragraph?
D_Alex
·6 месяцев назад·discuss
>It's not as safe as flying

In France and Japan, HSR has had zero fatalities in the entire period of operation.

In China, HSR had AFAIR one fatal crash, with 40 fatalities. Per passenger-mile, Chinese HSR is twice as safe as US air travel.
D_Alex
·7 месяцев назад·discuss
Imagine if Jensen Huang started meeting Xi Jinping to seek help for carrying out political change in the US.

What then?
D_Alex
·7 месяцев назад·discuss
>This ascribes an agency to capitalism that doesn’t exist.

You may find this marvelous piece enlightening:

https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/
D_Alex
·7 месяцев назад·discuss
Ramstein is like 400 km from the sea, Munich is 800 km.

I am puzzled that the alleged ship-launched drone swarms were allegedly able to penetrate this far undetected.
D_Alex
·7 месяцев назад·discuss
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-launch-new-phase-v...

How about now?
D_Alex
·7 месяцев назад·discuss
Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Türkiye all host U.S. nuclear weapons.

Incidentally, US nukes in Turkey in 1960s was the starting point of the Cuban missile crisis.

https://www.icanw.org/nuclear_arsenals