Yeah, this is why I dont get the argument that LLMs are good for bootstrapping. Especially anything serious.
Sure these things can technically frontload a lot of work at the beginning of a project, but I would argue the design choices made at the beginning of a project set the tone for the entire project, and its best those be made with intention, not stochastic text extruders.
Lets be real these things are shortcut machines that appeal to people's laziness, and as with most shortcuts in life, they come with consequences.
Have fun with your "Think for me SaaS" im not going to let my brain atrophy to the point where my competency is 1:1 correlated to the quantity and quality or tokens I have access too.
local first is not the future, lmfao, maybe in 10-20 years. It currently cost ~80k-100k to run a pretty meh Kimi 2.5 at decent tok p/s, which is rather useless anyways. And that doesn't allow you to run any multi-agent sessions.
By time hardware costs shrink to allow you to run useful models, concurrently in multi agent environments, they'll have already devalued labor on a scale never before seen.The layoffs and labor will cause us all to work for morsels, on whatever work opportunities remain. Eventually you'll beg to fight in a war.
LLMs are only here to attack labor, devalue the working class and eventually make us useless to the ruling class. LLMs do not create opportunities/jobs, they replace the inputs to labor, humans. That's their only purpose.
But I guess most llm-kiddies think they're going to vibe code their way out of the working class with Anthropic's latest slop offering. Good luck with that. In 5 years your labor will be worth a 1/4 maybe 1/2 of what it is now, and that vibe coded startup of yours will have been made 5000x times over by every other delusional llm-kiddie.
Have fun with your GPU, you won't be able to afford a 60 series, if they even make one, and it certainly won't be powerful enough to pull you out of the black mirror episode we're heading towards.
I recommend learning and not frying your brain with "Think for me Saas", and not being dependent on Meta or Alibaba open sourcing some model that allows you to compete with them.
Yeah, but humans still had to work to create those websites, it increased jobs, didn't replace them (this is happening). This will devalue all labor that has anything to do with i/o on computers, if not outright replace a lot of it. Who cares if it can't write perfect code, the owners of the software companies never cared about good code, they care about making money. They make plenty of money off slop, and they'll make even more if they don't have to have humans create the slop.
The job market will get flooded with the unemployed (it already is) with fewer jobs to replace the ones that were automated, those remaining jobs will get reduced to minimum wages whenever and wherever possible. 25% of new college grads cannot find employment. Soon young people will be so poor that you'll beg to fight in a war. Give it 5-10 years.
This isn't a hard future to game theory out, its not pretty if we maintain this fast track of progress in ML that minimally requires humans. Notice how the ruling class has increased the salaries for certain types of ML engineers, they know what's at stake. These businessmen make decisions based on expected value calculated from complex models, they aren't giving billion dollar pay packages to engineers because its trendy. We should use our own mental models to predict where this is going, and prevent it from happening however possible.
THE word ''Luddite'' continues to be applied with contempt to anyone with doubts about technology, especially the nuclear kind. Luddites today are no longer faced with human factory owners and vulnerable machines. As well-known President and unintentional Luddite D. D. Eisenhower prophesied when he left office, there is now a permanent power establishment of admirals, generals and corporate CEO's, up against whom us average poor bastards are completely outclassed, although Ike didn't put it quite that way. We are all supposed to keep tranquil and allow it to go on, even though, because of the data revolution, it becomes every day less possible to fool any of the people any of the time. If our world survives, the next great challenge to watch out for will come - you heard it here first - when the curves of research and development in artificial intelligence, molecular biology and robotics all converge. Oboy. It will be amazing and unpredictable, and even the biggest of brass, let us devoutly hope, are going to be caught flat-footed. It is certainly something for all good Luddites to look forward to if, God willing, we should live so long. Meantime, as Americans, we can take comfort, however minimal and cold, from Lord Byron's mischievously improvised song, in which he, like other observers of the time, saw clear identification between the first Luddites and our own revolutionary origins. It begins:[0]
I love paying some billionaire $0.0001 to use his thinking machine / Think for me SaaS. I love my competency and speed being rented from a billionaire, removing all value of my labor and agency. I really feel sorry for all of you LLM pilled people. You need to be shamed. This is going to be used as a weapon to devalue every working persons agency in this world and remove all of the working class's bargaining chips.
You think its just SWE? It will be accountants, customer service, factory workers, medical assistance basically anyone who doesn't work with their hands directly, and they'll try to solve that here soon too and alienate them too.
Look at who's in charge, do you think they're going to give us UBI? No, they're going to sign us up to go fight wars to help them accumulate resources. Stop supporting this, they're going to make us so poor young men will beg to fight in a war. Its the same playbook from the first half of the 20th Century.
You think I'm paranoid, give it 5 years.
We are at all time high's in the stock market/equities and they've laid off 400k SWE's in the last 16 months. While going on podcasts to tell us we are going to have more time to create and do what we love. We have to work to pay our bills. We don't want whats coming, but they're selling us some lie that this will solve all our problems, it will solve the ruling classes problems that will be it. You will have no bargaining chips and you will be forced to take whatever morsels given to you.
Your competency will be directly correlated 1:1 to the quantity and quality of tokens that you can afford, given access too (or loaned??) We're literally at the beginning of a black mirror episode before it gets dark.
People that grew up in the Capitalist West have been brainwashed since they were 10 years old they they can be a billionaire too, no you can't there's 2k-3k of them and 8 billion of us.
These automation tools are the ultimate weapon for the ruling class to strip all value of you from your labor, and you're embracing that as a miracle. Its not, your life is in the process of being torn of all meaning.
Good luck to everyone who agrees, we're going to need it.. Anyone supporting these companies or helping enhance these model's capabilities, you're a class traitor and soon to be slave.
Previously, open source software didn't contribute to automating away jobs, at least not at scale. Open Source libraries weren't potentially maintaining themselves (I know we aren't there yet, but that seems to be the goal).
You cannot compare any open source software, even as a whole, to the impact that LLMs have had on labor and are projected too. However, I might now argue it would have been better to not have so much open source, as its clearly being processed through these plagiarism laundering training regimes.
I don't really think LLMs, robotics and ML in general are going to increase GDP globally, they will instead just replace the inputs that were maintain the status quo (the workers). If they can't successfully replace human labor, it will at minimum greatly reduce its value, which is extremely dangerous.
Jobs grew greatly during the last 30 years of open source development but over the last 16 months we've had 350-400k SWE layoffs in the last 16 months in the USA. Many of these layoffs have been directly correlated to AI enhanced productivity. 25% of recent college graduates are unemployed. Jobs data is super unreliable at the moment, but we also will see large swaths of the lower skilled sectors, customer service for example, see huge layoffs in the coming 24 months.
Despite what C-Suites say about AI giving them more free time for their hobbies or whatever, they've yet to answer how people are going to afford those hobbies. Working as a barista lol? These same mouthpieces will say that llms are going to allow the same amount of engineers to get 10x more done, but they're not reflecting that in their business decisions. They are laying people off in swaths when equities are at all time highs, its abnormal.
I think its more likely the ruling classes will give us something to do by making us so poor that young men will beg to go fight wars. Put us to use on behalf of their conquest for more resources, that certainly did the trick in the 20s, 30s and 40s :/
It liberates those who have massive resources to run gigantic models at whatever scale they want.
Corporations and billionaires will get Ti-Nspires we get Ti-83s.
I do not agree that inference will get more affordable in time to prevent harm. It will cause way more problems with the devaluation of labor before it starts to solve those problems, and in that period they will solidify their control over society.
We already see it in how ML is being used on a vast scale to build advanced surveillance infrastructure. Lets not build the advanced calculators for them for free in open source please, they'd like nothing better. I wrote a lot more in the comments above also.
Sorry if I'm shaming. I suppose you're right, someone will probably build them. But in order to prevent bad outcomes for the average joe/worker we are can't just hand optimizations over to corporations for free in the form of open source. We know all too well how open source is exploited.
I don't know how to prevent people from stopping this without shaming them. I think more shaming might be required, as uncomfortable as that may be. It's a societal wide prisoner's dilemma (well if I don't build it, someone else will), except we this isn't a prisoners dilemma and we can coordinate, sort of.
It would be one thing if GPUs and Tokens were cheap and everyone could take these implementations and out compete the corporations, but that's not the game theoretical terms we're on here. They have the resources, and I promise they are not going to let the average joe be able afford to out compete them. They are the ones that are going to be able to get the most advantage from these tools.. Why give them the extra leverage. It will be used to displace you. The ruling class or those with the resources, have zero intention of letting the tide rise all boats. And if there are any in the ruling class that do have good intentions, they will be rooted out.
We see this evidence all across literature, history, and in their own actions. This year in Telluride Colorado the Ski Patrol Union went on strike over wages. The billionaire owner who lives in California, Chuck Horning, did not want to concede to the Ski Patrolers over a $66k spread out over 3 years, like 22k a year over the contract length. He shutdown the ski resort during the Christmas holidays, and brought the town to its knees. This is just one example, but there are many. It is ideological to these people, its about maintaining their control over the working class. We are at the beginning of a class struggle that Earth has never witnessed before, with way more lives at stake.
I do not think LLMs are going to lead to super intelligence btw, I do believe it will get decent enough to uproot many lives when its used as a weapon against the value of labor and to accelerate concentration of resources into the few(er). We are up against people like Chuck Horner, who'd rather destroy an entire town of workers over 22k a year than concede any power. They have zero interest in building a equitable society, or we wouldn't see this type of behavior. This will 100% get used to replace you, then what will they do with us? They aren't going to just let everyone chill, I promise you that.
I believe the devaluation (and surveillance )of labor because of LLMs, robotics (machine learning in general) is the most pressing issue of our time.
I get the draw to building cool tools with these things, but please don't do it in the open. Let someone else do it, and then we can call them out too. The slower these developments can happen the better.