Yes the improving strength of GPT is magnifying the problem but is unrelated to the solution. The solution space steps outside of examining the content of the message for truth. The solution is to sign the messages using a social trust graph; and scoring posts based on the social trust distance.
It's not a very compelling argument for me that a (very short) 20 year history of failing to solve this problem means that it cannot be solved.
I'm willing to bet you $1000.00 that this will be completely solved in 10 years. In 10 years we will know if content we consume is "fake" or "real". It may still be offensive, and harmful to gullible people - but it will all be scored as to how real it is. Real will be defined as the likelihood that the content comes from a real human being type person, as agreed upon by other persons in-between you and that person. Content one hop away from you, from a friend, will have a score of 100% real, and content many hops away will have lower score. You will probably start your day by sorting the content you consume by the likelihood that it is real.
I did actually work on PGP - and I'm willing to concede it didn't succeed. But DNS works and bitcoin works (technically). So we do use various flavors of cryptographic trust to make sure that actions in a network are "real" versus "forged".
And yes - it's true that bots can creep into a social trust graph... so yeah, it make take effort to keep pruning the weeds in the garden in a sense.
Note in some ways I'm not really trying to argue FOR crypto per se - I'm just saying that the OP should at least critique crypto if they want to make the thesis they are making. And I'm arguing that it is a big omission to gloss over the utility of crypto and the argument will be hard to make that crypto is not a significantly powerful modifier to the original thesis of the OP.
There are going to be a few cases where keys are lost or stolen. It may be possible to build multi-sig wallets that allow for you to migrate an identity to a new key. What we're looking for is some kind of statistical means of trying to reduce bad actors. Even if there was no recourse for you and you were totally screwed I'm not sure it totally invalidates the concept of having a key or a mechanism for trying to remove bad actors from social discourse. You could trip and die because you wore shoes. You could get locked out of your house... bad stuff does happen - it doesn't mean we shouldn't wear shoes or have keys.
It is gonna happen for sure. People will leverage powerful tools and claim it is their own voice. Me shrugs.
I more want to at least have that individual emitter be accountable for what they post; to establish continuity. I want to know that that emitter is say 3 hops from me, and is trusted by 12 friends in between, and has a general trust score of say 7/10 overall as an overall rating by my extended trust graph.
It is less that I want people to say good things, or be truthful or whatnot - I just want to know that they are real, that there is a human behind it, that that human has an opinion of some kind. The thing is that there are a ton of sock puppets that are not real - it's more about reducing the noise / spam rather than a perfect solution.
Even with some defects or imperfections anything is better than what we have now - which is basically nothing.
I think the way I'd think about this is to imagine say a small community, such as a town of say 5000 people or so. While you cannot know each person individually, you can know of people by reputation. People do earn rep over time, and they can burn rep. It is true that some people will be unfairly downscored, or unfairly upscored - but I'm not really trying to argue for those fine grained situations. What I'm trying to argue for is simply distinguishing the very bad actors acting out of pure malice from injecting fake news, media and 'yellow journalism' into human conversations.
True some real people will be downscored (I prefer to think of this as downscoring bad actors rather than 'blocking'). And true an AI can 'sound very human' - but an AI or a bad actor will struggle to build up a reputation over time. An AI can't shake hands with you, it is harder for it to prove it is human... Other bad actors will presumably burn their reputations if they spit out a series of offensive, misleading, false, inflammatory or toxic posts...
Note I am not necessarily advocating for crypto per se as a way to establish social trust graphs (a'la PGP or say Keybase) but I am arguing that there are other options that the OP did not raise. I more want to see a wider discussion around ways to filter malicious media that either "centralized systems" OR "small social clubs". I'm not necessarily saying it has to be a cryptographic solution... but I do think there are more ways to have what we want.
Authors making this argument (which we see often now) really need to sketch out why cryptographic solutions will fail.
The entire thesis rests on this erroneous sentence in the second point: “This can be done in two ways – just move to invite-only silos where you already know everybody, or big platforms where the owners do the vetting for you.”
There are more options. We employ them when we are forced to; when it becomes cheaper than not.
We can sign posts or sign that somebody is real or to sign that somebody has earned rep, or that somebody has burned their rep… and subjectively score every piece of content that crosses our phone against our social trust graph.
We can rhizomatically scale social networks, can deputize our people in our extended social network to mark content as appropriate for kids or not, or otherwise filter. There’s no specific reason why we cannot grow a kind of social nervous system that has a kind of myelin sheath against noise and spam. It doesn’t have to be specifically only people we’ve shaken hands with or our like 3 closest buddies.
It's not a very compelling argument for me that a (very short) 20 year history of failing to solve this problem means that it cannot be solved.
I'm willing to bet you $1000.00 that this will be completely solved in 10 years. In 10 years we will know if content we consume is "fake" or "real". It may still be offensive, and harmful to gullible people - but it will all be scored as to how real it is. Real will be defined as the likelihood that the content comes from a real human being type person, as agreed upon by other persons in-between you and that person. Content one hop away from you, from a friend, will have a score of 100% real, and content many hops away will have lower score. You will probably start your day by sorting the content you consume by the likelihood that it is real.
I did actually work on PGP - and I'm willing to concede it didn't succeed. But DNS works and bitcoin works (technically). So we do use various flavors of cryptographic trust to make sure that actions in a network are "real" versus "forged".
And yes - it's true that bots can creep into a social trust graph... so yeah, it make take effort to keep pruning the weeds in the garden in a sense.
Note in some ways I'm not really trying to argue FOR crypto per se - I'm just saying that the OP should at least critique crypto if they want to make the thesis they are making. And I'm arguing that it is a big omission to gloss over the utility of crypto and the argument will be hard to make that crypto is not a significantly powerful modifier to the original thesis of the OP.