We know the rules of physics and math. We can make predictions using those rules and express them as well defined terms. Physics and math are not a black box.
The inputs of "the economy" are not even well defined. We measure SOME of the inputs and cannot predict the outputs like recession. Sounds like the economy is a black box.
I am selling a database with ten billion phone numbers. 1.25 GB file with each number compressed to a single bit. You can compare the clubhouse database against mine to determine which numbers are not in their set.