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100 years ago in markets: Wall Street analysts predict a not-so Roaring 20s

roaring20s.substack.com
2 points·by roaring20s·5 лет назад·0 comments

2008 Market Crash Diary – Kindle Book Free Today

amazon.com
1 points·by roaring20s·5 лет назад·0 comments

I'm reading the FT and WSJ from 100 years ago each week leading to 1929

roaring20s.substack.com
323 points·by roaring20s·5 лет назад·250 comments

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roaring20s
·5 лет назад·discuss
I have a twitter here if you want to follow: https://twitter.com/Roaring20sTate
roaring20s
·5 лет назад·discuss
Fascinating, right?

What I did not realize until going back in time was how these German reparations are dragging on and on.

Armistice is signed in 1918, and reparations are agreed upon in late 1919. In 1920, the payment plans are put forth. By 1921, it's clear Germany can't repay in full. For the next 3-4 years, the entire calamity will stumble in fits and starts. Until the US gets involved in the mid-1920s (Dawes and Young Plans).

Even then, war reparations aren't completely paid back until 2010.

It reminds me a lot of the Greek situation in the 2010s. Three bailouts, several different rounds of negotiations, etc.
roaring20s
·5 лет назад·discuss
Compounding works best when dividends are immediately reinvested... it also pushes up the total return considerably.
roaring20s
·5 лет назад·discuss
I am including dividends.

I sometimes wonder if there are some long forgotten brokerage accounts just idly compounding.
roaring20s
·5 лет назад·discuss
Good idea.

The market sentiment in 1921 was very bad for stocks. In fact, a week ago in 1921, Andrew Mellon (Treasury Secretary) suggested retail investors avoid stocks. This was covered in my post last week.

Sentiment is going to flip around 1923-1924 (once we clear the 1920 top) and only strengthen into 1929.