Ask HN: What is the next housing bubble?
Are there any leading indicators that point to a recession in 2018?
14 comments
Housing could already be in a bubble in some places. It's far beyond what's reasonable vs. median income and is reportedly being propped up by a huge amount of foreign cash making cash purchases.
A lot of commentators I've read say we're not in a bubble because these are cash purchases, but this assumes there's an infinite supply of this cash. If/when the cash influx stops the present prices may not be sustainable. I doubt it would be as hard a landing as 2008 but you could definitely see a correction.
A lot of commentators I've read say we're not in a bubble because these are cash purchases, but this assumes there's an infinite supply of this cash. If/when the cash influx stops the present prices may not be sustainable. I doubt it would be as hard a landing as 2008 but you could definitely see a correction.
There is a report by UBS for what it is worth: https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/chief-invest...
US seems to be """safe""" as per the report.
US seems to be """safe""" as per the report.
No bubble, but higher interest rates will drag the prices down. People won’t be able to afford the same house at 5-8% interest rate. Experts predict a hike to at least 5% by the end of this year. So, more likely a price drop not a bubble.
The US will get there again. Other countries are clamping down on lending to contain house prices while the US is opening up lending once again. And you can trust they'll do it recklessly again too.
Car companies are offering ridiculous deals, and giving out loans to people that don't have good credit. If I had to guess, they didn't learn their lesson and will be in deep trouble again.
Bitcoin and blockchain
Same one as before.
Securities-based loans aka shadow margin.
It seems that nobody tracks them, so it's possible that there is something brewing. If there is strong stock market correction, and loans must be paid back people get into trouble.
It seems that nobody tracks them, so it's possible that there is something brewing. If there is strong stock market correction, and loans must be paid back people get into trouble.
I wonder how common this kind of loan is? Article from Kiplinger about security-based loans: https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T035-C000-S004-s...
It might be housing. I'm seeing those "real estate investor seeks trainee" hand-made signs at intersections again. People are placing offers on houses sight-unseen because houses are moving so fast. The only thing missing is extremely low percentage down payments; does anyone know if 3% down is back?
Don't forget to look North. The housing bubble in Canada never popped in the first place.