Ask HN: What will happen to make VR finally explode, if anything?
29 comments
More computing power in the headsets that allow it to be used without needing a relatively beefy computer. When there is the ability to use the headset without a computer then it will be able to reach a broader audience
Price of entry has to be lower. A vive + a gaming rig that can actually handle VR decently is quite expensive for the avarage consumer.
When someone figures out how to move around inside VR. Right now you're stuck in a tiny room, but how awesome would it be to play FPS games where you run around and duck behind objects. Most htc vive games i've played have mastered shooting but I'm always stuck on a tiny platform or standing in one place.
My own belief is that retail will benefit from the VR revolution the most, but mostly for using the VR headsets to access an in-store experience using live 360 video / AR .
(edited because mentioning my Y Combinator application didn't come across well)
(edited because mentioning my Y Combinator application didn't come across well)
Plug into your brain, so it looks more like reality.
Using Samsung batteries might do it.
(I'll get me coat!)
(I'll get me coat!)
Going by usernames we should probably be friends Mr Winstanley
Porn?
I'm serious. The Porn industry has been leading technical changes and innovations more often than not.
I'm serious. The Porn industry has been leading technical changes and innovations more often than not.
Would you seriously use it? Seems like a bit of bother to me versus just firing up a fave on the ol' 2D 27" monitor, but perhaps my personal tastes don't run parallel to the market in question.
I wouldn't no, I don't think so. But I think the industry has been exploring this option for a little while now.
TBH, like you, I feel that most of my personal tastes don't seem to mach the actual market (be it for movies, video games, etc).
TBH, like you, I feel that most of my personal tastes don't seem to mach the actual market (be it for movies, video games, etc).
Cheap high-powered graphics cards are one prerequisite.
If industrial history in general is any indication, than some sort of heavy use by militaries, probably for training.
If industrial history in general is any indication, than some sort of heavy use by militaries, probably for training.
VR - virtual reality, isn't really all that interesting outside of gaming/simulation and training. AR - augmented reality, is where the real money-making opportunities lie. Lots of companies have field services/technicians who would benefit greatly from AR. It's not hard to see the transportation and distribution sectors also benefitting. Even healthcare. The upshot of it all being AR is where the action is, not VR.
I think any training you could do in ar you could also do in VR. It's just more modeling of the whole environment.
Or what are you thinking of that's way better in ar?
Or what are you thinking of that's way better in ar?
The map is not the territory and there is no value merging the two. Overlaying data onto vision is just a distraction and assuming something magical happens when you overlay data instead of putting it next to you on a screen is delusional
Here's an example from recent memory where AR would be far more useful than VR.
I'm repairing an automobile engine. There's a certain component I need to remove, but I can't see anything like the photo in the manual because it's hidden below a maze of plumbing and cables.
An AR application that could align itself to reference points on the motor and show me an overlay of exactly where the device is and where I should place a wrench to unbolt it, and perhaps what other parts need to be removed first, would be a godsend in a case like that.
Now extend that use case to something similar, but the technician is working in the cold and dark on an unfamiliar version of the same motor and there's even more value.
I'm repairing an automobile engine. There's a certain component I need to remove, but I can't see anything like the photo in the manual because it's hidden below a maze of plumbing and cables.
An AR application that could align itself to reference points on the motor and show me an overlay of exactly where the device is and where I should place a wrench to unbolt it, and perhaps what other parts need to be removed first, would be a godsend in a case like that.
Now extend that use case to something similar, but the technician is working in the cold and dark on an unfamiliar version of the same motor and there's even more value.
There is little reason to believe that humans are so good at matching from screens to reality that proper located AR information isn't better (in domains like mapping it's quite well studied how error-prone humans are/how hard it is to communicate the right subset of details, while VR research has demonstrated how well real-world representations work).
Regarding distractions, attention management is extremely important for AR, but has also been researched a lot. As long as we keep advertisers out of AR applications we'll be fine.
Not surprisingly, the military already uses it, and I doubt they'd give figher pilots AR helmets if a screen would be more efficient.
Regarding distractions, attention management is extremely important for AR, but has also been researched a lot. As long as we keep advertisers out of AR applications we'll be fine.
Not surprisingly, the military already uses it, and I doubt they'd give figher pilots AR helmets if a screen would be more efficient.
It adds efficiency for military grade targeting but the everyday applications are more novelty than explosive technology. A field technician will have minimal benefit from a heads up targeting display.
>A field technician will have minimal benefit from a heads up targeting display.
I can think of a lot of scenarios where AR would be a great benefit. For example, imagine an electrician running wires through a commercial building and having the wiring path displayed for him. No digging through documentation, measuring, and marking necessary to get the job done. Or imagine fire fighters with AR heads-up displays getting routing information inside building that is smoky and difficult to traverse.
I can think of a lot of scenarios where AR would be a great benefit. For example, imagine an electrician running wires through a commercial building and having the wiring path displayed for him. No digging through documentation, measuring, and marking necessary to get the job done. Or imagine fire fighters with AR heads-up displays getting routing information inside building that is smoky and difficult to traverse.
In fact my company is exploring doing that for underground wiring. We're also looking into technicians going into a transmission substation and when looking at the equipment it's overlayed with voltage and temperature gauges with a link to access service manuals.
I'm not sure about novelty-only, I believe it has very interesting use cases, but I sort of agree on it not being "explosive technology".
To really make an impact in daily life it has to become usable in public, and the chances of the tech industry getting the tech, the applications and the dorkyness-factor of HMDs solved are pretty slim.
I only see it used in professional contexts for quite some time (e.g. Lockheeds and GEs ideas for airplane maintenance workers seem sensible to me even with relatively high cost attached, if it gets really cheap I could see warehouse workers, building maintenance, ...)
To really make an impact in daily life it has to become usable in public, and the chances of the tech industry getting the tech, the applications and the dorkyness-factor of HMDs solved are pretty slim.
I only see it used in professional contexts for quite some time (e.g. Lockheeds and GEs ideas for airplane maintenance workers seem sensible to me even with relatively high cost attached, if it gets really cheap I could see warehouse workers, building maintenance, ...)
What would the benefits be for the services/technicians or the transporation and distribution centers?
A technician might see an overlay highlighting a malfunctioning part, or annotations provided by a more senior remote person. A picker at a distribution center could fill multiple boxes with the correct products and boxes highlighting in their vision in real-time.
I suspect someone in the fields could come up with better ideas than I could.
I suspect someone in the fields could come up with better ideas than I could.
My perspective is that for most of the applications people tell me about in AR the more impression part to me is the computer vision necessary to get them to work than what I consider the AR functionality. For example overlaying a box over something is very easy but figuring out what part is malfunctioning via video is hard so do you consider both of those functionalities to be part of AR? In my mind they are separate things so that might be why I'm less hyped about AR. Hopefully I don't come across as sarcastic or antagonistic because I'm just trying to understand the hype.
Figuring out what's malfunctioning is getting into AI territory (although some malfunctions might be detectable via sensors), but something like a checklist for assembly/disassembly to get at a component would be valuable.
Yes, tracking is a major issue with AR, but it is making a lot of progress as well right now. E.g. the (I believe time-of-flight based) 3D scanners in the Hololens have no issue aligning stuff to the inside of a room, we have the performance to track visual markers quick enough, VR systems like the Vive show precise tracking with active beacons, ...
At least for known and somewhat controlled environments, tracking seems more or less solved, which applies to many industrial use cases. An example I've heard of: Lockheed and GE have been working on AR setups for airplane building and maintenance, with the idea that it becomes easier for workers to reference parts and look up steps to do, increasing training speed and reducing errors. Documentation says some part is broken, AR can tell you precisely where it is and potentially overlay diagrams with reality -> hopefully less chance for confusion between parts and less time spent looking up manuals. Maintenance worker checks a part and marks it as defective, the system knows which it is and there is less risk for it accidentally being written down wrong (personally, I suspect the current workflow is "look up/write in a paper manual", and you could get most of the way with a tablet computer, but why not go the entire way if tech allows it)
These examples work because a manufacturer already has a precise 3D model of the planes they make and thus can provide the data necessary for the tracking relative to the object, which is what matters in this case.
Apparently various beacon technologies allow sub-meter positioning in buildings/on equipped properties for relatively cheap, in cities GPS+WLAN can get at least rough locations. This could combine well with optical markers or simple image analysis for local, relative movements. That could be enough for navigation aids: an absolute error on a distance is not important as long as it properly tracks local movements. If it tries to guide you to a specific object you of course need better information once you get close.
Which again is interesting for all kinds of workers and potentially the general public. I would love a personalized guiding arrow when travelling through an unknown airport or other complex structure, or a rough target indicator in a city. I don't want to look down on a map on a phone, I don't need all the details, just something to keep track of. (until I think of the privacy implications probably...)
But I would not be surprised if the industry failed to make it simple, interoperable and sleek enough for public use anytime soon, so I'm not holding my breath for AR outside of specialist use and gaming, even though the basic tech is becoming viable right now.
At least for known and somewhat controlled environments, tracking seems more or less solved, which applies to many industrial use cases. An example I've heard of: Lockheed and GE have been working on AR setups for airplane building and maintenance, with the idea that it becomes easier for workers to reference parts and look up steps to do, increasing training speed and reducing errors. Documentation says some part is broken, AR can tell you precisely where it is and potentially overlay diagrams with reality -> hopefully less chance for confusion between parts and less time spent looking up manuals. Maintenance worker checks a part and marks it as defective, the system knows which it is and there is less risk for it accidentally being written down wrong (personally, I suspect the current workflow is "look up/write in a paper manual", and you could get most of the way with a tablet computer, but why not go the entire way if tech allows it)
These examples work because a manufacturer already has a precise 3D model of the planes they make and thus can provide the data necessary for the tracking relative to the object, which is what matters in this case.
Apparently various beacon technologies allow sub-meter positioning in buildings/on equipped properties for relatively cheap, in cities GPS+WLAN can get at least rough locations. This could combine well with optical markers or simple image analysis for local, relative movements. That could be enough for navigation aids: an absolute error on a distance is not important as long as it properly tracks local movements. If it tries to guide you to a specific object you of course need better information once you get close.
Which again is interesting for all kinds of workers and potentially the general public. I would love a personalized guiding arrow when travelling through an unknown airport or other complex structure, or a rough target indicator in a city. I don't want to look down on a map on a phone, I don't need all the details, just something to keep track of. (until I think of the privacy implications probably...)
But I would not be surprised if the industry failed to make it simple, interoperable and sleek enough for public use anytime soon, so I'm not holding my breath for AR outside of specialist use and gaming, even though the basic tech is becoming viable right now.
None? It would be dangerous to obscure the vision of either of these types of workers
Not necessarily. GE's already testing it out.
https://www.ge.com/digital/press-releases/ready-augmented-re...
https://www.ge.com/digital/press-releases/ready-augmented-re...
Not a single one of those questions is answered by the HTC Vibe web site, at least not that I could find. So me, a tech worker with loads of disposable income and a willingness to take a bit of a chance on new tech, won't be dropping $800 on your new device. How in the hell does one expect the proverbial Joe Sixpack to jump on board?