Russia has halted all flights into and out of the country(reuters.com)
reuters.com
Russia has halted all flights into and out of the country
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-russia-flights/russia-to-halt-all-flights-at-midnight-on-friday-including-for-repatriation-idUSKBN21L1ZM
65 comments
I suspect it’s the airports and aircraft themselves rather than the destination that’s at issue. Small isolated groups may become infected, but they are far less likely to infect others outside the group. Airports inherently mix people from large areas within a country together which crosses those boundaries.
Take a look at Vietnam and Singapore. Both clamped down hard back in January. They were keeping their numbers quite low (<100), especially impressive considering Vietnam is 100M people.
Once the virus spread to other countries and they started to shutdown, a lot of Singapore and Vietnamese nationals returned home. Contact tracing indicated that almost 100% of new cases were people returning from overseas.
Last I checked Singapore has close to 1,000 cases and Vietnam almost 300.
To answer your question, yes, stopping international travel can have a big impact on controlling the disease.
Once the virus spread to other countries and they started to shutdown, a lot of Singapore and Vietnamese nationals returned home. Contact tracing indicated that almost 100% of new cases were people returning from overseas.
Last I checked Singapore has close to 1,000 cases and Vietnam almost 300.
To answer your question, yes, stopping international travel can have a big impact on controlling the disease.
As a Canadian, I find it frustrating that for weeks, the Federal government was hesitant to halt air travel, citing the WHO who stated that closing borders showed little evidence on slowing the transmission of influenza (https://postmediaedmontonjournal2.files.wordpress.com/2020/0...)
And in the end, we ended up closing our borders except well beyond the time when it could've made a major difference.
And in the end, we ended up closing our borders except well beyond the time when it could've made a major difference.
It may help, but Italy (also shutdown flights to/from China in January) shows that the impact is not big enough.
Italy has a lot of Chinese-staffed sweatshops. All it would take is one infectee to start their new job in December or January to start the steamroller going.
I believe there are at least three issues:
1. My guess is that you're right, the main reason this is happening is a nationalistic wish to blame others for the spread.
But also:
2. As other commentators have noticed, it's difficult to socially distance in an airport. On the plane itself, there is extremely good ventilation and what limited evidence I've seen suggests that transmission is low, but in airports that might not be the case (I'm not sure).
3. Air crew may refuse to fly. Of course there are many other service professions in which enormous numbers of staff are being asked to expose themselves to a high risk of infection ... but almost all of those staff are (sadly) easy to replace if they refuse, whereas pilots are not.
1. My guess is that you're right, the main reason this is happening is a nationalistic wish to blame others for the spread.
But also:
2. As other commentators have noticed, it's difficult to socially distance in an airport. On the plane itself, there is extremely good ventilation and what limited evidence I've seen suggests that transmission is low, but in airports that might not be the case (I'm not sure).
3. Air crew may refuse to fly. Of course there are many other service professions in which enormous numbers of staff are being asked to expose themselves to a high risk of infection ... but almost all of those staff are (sadly) easy to replace if they refuse, whereas pilots are not.
> 1. My guess is that you're right, the main reason this is happening is a nationalistic wish to blame others for the spread.
More than half of the world's population is under lockdown within their countries, and you still think that shutting down air travel is a nationalistic wish?
More than half of the world's population is under lockdown within their countries, and you still think that shutting down air travel is a nationalistic wish?
As others point out, by distinguishing domestic from international travel, you're implying that you believe your citizens are smart, intelligent, and know not to travel, but you can't trust other citizens to do that. That implication is what it makes it nationalistic.
More practically, though, is that it's a measure that can only be effective if domestic transmission is not a major cause of new cases, which is true in only very few countries right now (and I believe none of those countries have banned visitors). Enacting such a policy at this late stage is a measure that looks like you're taking a strong stance while having virtually no effect at all, and could well be an attempt to distract from your own failures to contain it beforehand.
Given the way Putin has governed in the past decade, I am rather more inclined to believe that the primary goal of this measure is in fact propaganda.
More practically, though, is that it's a measure that can only be effective if domestic transmission is not a major cause of new cases, which is true in only very few countries right now (and I believe none of those countries have banned visitors). Enacting such a policy at this late stage is a measure that looks like you're taking a strong stance while having virtually no effect at all, and could well be an attempt to distract from your own failures to contain it beforehand.
Given the way Putin has governed in the past decade, I am rather more inclined to believe that the primary goal of this measure is in fact propaganda.
> As others point out, by distinguishing domestic from international travel, you're implying that you believe your citizens are smart, intelligent, and know not to travel, but you can't trust other citizens to do that. That implication is what it makes it nationalistic.
There is no need to make up conspiracy theories. Domestic flights are essential in a country the size of Russia, international flights are not. The same thing can be seen elsewhere. For example, TAP Portugal has grounded all flights except those between the mainland and Madeira / Azores.
There is no need to make up conspiracy theories. Domestic flights are essential in a country the size of Russia, international flights are not. The same thing can be seen elsewhere. For example, TAP Portugal has grounded all flights except those between the mainland and Madeira / Azores.
Isn't it curious that they make a distinction between international and domestic travel at this point? If air travel is spreading the disease, why not shut it all down?
Because they are making the same short-sighted and overly-optimistic decisions practically every other country has made so far?
> On the plane itself, there is extremely good ventilation and what limited evidence I've seen suggests that transmission is low, but in airports that might not be the case (I'm not sure).
I doubt that airplanes are in any way safer than airports. In an airplane it's hard not to touch places other people's droplets have reached.
I doubt that airplanes are in any way safer than airports. In an airplane it's hard not to touch places other people's droplets have reached.
Yes, it's reasonable to assume it's a contributor to the spread -- but I'm not sure what you mean by 'relevant'. Significant? (un)controllable? Worth bothering with?
I can't find the article now, but a week or two ago Singapore and South Korea (IIRC) were claiming most of their new cases were imports, as they'd been approaching some level of control (via tracking & testing) within their borders.
Because different countries have wildly different attitudes, policies, and procedures - the best place to enforce domestic controls are at your own border.
As you say, domestic travel can and will also spread the virus, but that doesn't mean you throw arms in the air and accept all travellers from everywhere.
I can't find the article now, but a week or two ago Singapore and South Korea (IIRC) were claiming most of their new cases were imports, as they'd been approaching some level of control (via tracking & testing) within their borders.
Because different countries have wildly different attitudes, policies, and procedures - the best place to enforce domestic controls are at your own border.
As you say, domestic travel can and will also spread the virus, but that doesn't mean you throw arms in the air and accept all travellers from everywhere.
I meant significant. I don't think Russia is at a point that compares well with South Korea. For SK I can understand when they differentiate between domestic and international fights.
Okay. I tend to side with the 'do everything we can' approach, on the assumption that'll save more suffering and lives, and with the anecdotal evidence coming in from regions that have not done everything they could, and with an optimistic expectation that it'll reduce the length of time it takes to bring it into manageable spread rate.
It may not have a profound impact on the spread within (and indeed outside) Russia, but it almost definitely will have some impact, and at this point that's probably sufficient reason in itself.
It may not have a profound impact on the spread within (and indeed outside) Russia, but it almost definitely will have some impact, and at this point that's probably sufficient reason in itself.
How can you possibly fly while social-distancing? Even in first class.
That would be my assumption as well. I would hypothesize that once the virus is well seeded within a country, the contribution by new travelers is dwarfed by internal propagation.
Using the famous Washington Post simulation as a reference:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-si...
I imagine it's like the second scenario in reverse. Rather than the wall opening, picture it closing after the virus is already spreading uncontained on either side.
Of course, it could be a significant factor in keeping the outbreak initially contained. But that involves an even more fanciful assumption in my view: that you could impose and really tightly enforce a ban early enough to matter. The continued pressure from Trump and many of his political allies to "open the economy" -- and their resistance to "shutting it down" in the first place -- shows such a proposition, offered at a point it would have mattered (if that were even possible with the initial stonewalling by China on the severity of the outbreak) would almost certainly have been cried down as paranoia and overreaction by the kind of business and political interests who hold real influence over these matters.
Using the famous Washington Post simulation as a reference:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-si...
I imagine it's like the second scenario in reverse. Rather than the wall opening, picture it closing after the virus is already spreading uncontained on either side.
Of course, it could be a significant factor in keeping the outbreak initially contained. But that involves an even more fanciful assumption in my view: that you could impose and really tightly enforce a ban early enough to matter. The continued pressure from Trump and many of his political allies to "open the economy" -- and their resistance to "shutting it down" in the first place -- shows such a proposition, offered at a point it would have mattered (if that were even possible with the initial stonewalling by China on the severity of the outbreak) would almost certainly have been cried down as paranoia and overreaction by the kind of business and political interests who hold real influence over these matters.
Wikipedia has an article on the coronavirus epidemic in Russia, including the government's response. Of course, the data may not be reliable.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_R...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_R...
I'm not aware of information coming out of Russia that contradicts their official reporting, but I still find it extremely implausible that they have been so little impacts by the virus spread. But I'm flying blind on this speculation, I freely admit: Are typical travel patterns between Russia and the rest of Europe so minimal as to explain their decrease exposure?
Maybe because they started testing early? Their first cases were in January and they screened everyone in airports since then [0], they performed 639606 tests with 4731 positives. [1][2]
[0] https://www.reuters.com/article/china-health-pneumonia-russi...
[1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing
[0] https://www.reuters.com/article/china-health-pneumonia-russi...
[1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing
Let's read some real news:
- https://meduza.io/en/news/2020/04/02/russian-public-health-a...
- https://meduza.io/en/feature/2020/03/18/at-the-peak-we-could...
- https://meduza.io/en/feature/2020/04/03/russian-doctors-unio...
- https://meduza.io/en/news/2020/04/02/russian-public-health-a...
- https://meduza.io/en/feature/2020/03/18/at-the-peak-we-could...
- https://meduza.io/en/feature/2020/04/03/russian-doctors-unio...
That makes it sound about as sealed shut on speaking out as the Chinese were in the early days, only without the mass quarantines that they wouldn't be able to hide as easily. Either way it doesn't paint a good picture.
Huh. I live in a rural area. Tourism (hunting, fishing, etc) is the main driver for visitors. Now many locals do not want visitors, notwithstanding the money that they spend.
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The WHO generally considers against such travel restrictions.
https://www.who.int/news-room/articles-detail/updated-who-re...
https://www.who.int/news-room/articles-detail/updated-who-re...
WHO's bad advice is responsible for tens of thousands of deaths. I watched their conferences in January. Simultaneously heaping praise on China for their effective quarantines while demanding other countries not cut off flights from China because there was little risk. If every country ignored them and stopped travel, or said every person entering the country has to spend X days in quarantine, this could have been contained. And that's only one part of WHO's failure.
The WHO is in China's pocket and is doing the bidding of CCP. Their advice is not to be trusted.
jessaustin(3)
I suspect this is to deter Russians from coming home for the Orthodox Easter which is way more important than in the West.
I am a Russian living abroad. I know literally no one coming back to Russia for Easter. It's the first time I even heard of this idea.
Summer or New Year are the times when Russians are more likely to go to visit their relatives and friends.
Summer or New Year are the times when Russians are more likely to go to visit their relatives and friends.
Do you have any idea why that is? Length of travel? Cost of travel? I'm a Pole living abroad and every year I try to go to visit my family for Easter, it seems like a pretty normal thing to do.
Orthodox Christianity is not a big thing among the current generation of Russian diaspora, so Easter doesn't have any cultural significance to most of them.
Summer is a good time to visit because of the mild climate, and New Years', because it has always been a big holiday, culturally.
Summer is a good time to visit because of the mild climate, and New Years', because it has always been a big holiday, culturally.
Thank you for sharing that! It's amazing that this tradition exists in Poland. Do Poles come to see family for New Year / Christmas?
Oh, and by the way: Russia has state holidays from Jan 1st till Jan 10th (+/-, every year is slightly different), which makes it a lot easier to meet everyone.
Easter does not have any state recognition in Russia, so everyone would be quite busy with their regular errands, I guess.
Oh, and by the way: Russia has state holidays from Jan 1st till Jan 10th (+/-, every year is slightly different), which makes it a lot easier to meet everyone.
Easter does not have any state recognition in Russia, so everyone would be quite busy with their regular errands, I guess.
Yeah, we go home for Christmas too. So per year I'll usually go for Christmas and for Easter. Maybe if the year is really good we'll try to visit at the end of summer too.
The only reason I got home to Slovenia for Easter is, it's a 4-day-weekend in the UK.
same here. what a weird idea
This comment shows how little westerners know about Russia and Russians. Easter is of very little importance in Russia, especially for Russians living abroad.
For religious Russians abroad there are Orthodox churches in almost every country, even in Thailand and Cambodia.
For religious Russians abroad there are Orthodox churches in almost every country, even in Thailand and Cambodia.
Putin should have kept that plane of supplies he sent to the US to prove a point.
Initially, yes. It could have changed things. But this action now feels way too late. Like two months late. It feels like a nationalistic rally of blaming others for the spread.