Ask HN: How to Prepare for National Instability?
52 comments
One is adapt to a world where information (and lack thereof) is weaponized. Get out your skepticism and find trusted sources of information. There is an enormous amount of partisan-oriented misrepresentations and under-reported stuff, on BOTH sides of the political spectrum.
As Chomsky pointed out in Manufacturing Consent, modern-day propaganda isn't about lying or faking data, that's pre-War stuff. Post WWII we discovered that a much better way to manipulate public opinion is to focus on some data and not focusing on other data. Omitting that which doesn't match narrative, and headlining the stuff that matches narrative.
Believe it or not, it helps to stabilize you. As Taibbi points out, the news media has turned itself into market segments, where a news story is decided upon, "Will my market want to hear this" and NOT "People should know this." Therefore it's intended as outrage and anger by design. Once you know this, you can take a step back.
That's the psychological preparation.
Several people below wrote "community" and "social group." For those of us in cities and not small towns / farming communities, that translates to "make some friends" which isn't really that useful advice, I'm afraid.
As Chomsky pointed out in Manufacturing Consent, modern-day propaganda isn't about lying or faking data, that's pre-War stuff. Post WWII we discovered that a much better way to manipulate public opinion is to focus on some data and not focusing on other data. Omitting that which doesn't match narrative, and headlining the stuff that matches narrative.
Believe it or not, it helps to stabilize you. As Taibbi points out, the news media has turned itself into market segments, where a news story is decided upon, "Will my market want to hear this" and NOT "People should know this." Therefore it's intended as outrage and anger by design. Once you know this, you can take a step back.
That's the psychological preparation.
Several people below wrote "community" and "social group." For those of us in cities and not small towns / farming communities, that translates to "make some friends" which isn't really that useful advice, I'm afraid.
> "make some friends" [...] isn't really that useful advice
I'd go one step further and say that this is potentially even harmful advice, especially when coupled with the suggestions of treating instability/civil unrest like some romantic survivalist wet dream.
Having strong local social ties can cloud one's judgment of when to leave a truly dangerous situation. After bunkering for a few months, one might find themselves stranded with worthless currency, depleted stores, or even worse, actively hostile blockades, and physical inability to seek international refuge.
One does not need to theorize what a total collapse / humanitarian crisis would look like, there's plenty of precedent in the Middle East, east Africa, etc.
I'd go one step further and say that this is potentially even harmful advice, especially when coupled with the suggestions of treating instability/civil unrest like some romantic survivalist wet dream.
Having strong local social ties can cloud one's judgment of when to leave a truly dangerous situation. After bunkering for a few months, one might find themselves stranded with worthless currency, depleted stores, or even worse, actively hostile blockades, and physical inability to seek international refuge.
One does not need to theorize what a total collapse / humanitarian crisis would look like, there's plenty of precedent in the Middle East, east Africa, etc.
"Be elsewhere" is a great way of handling collapse.
But it's hard to apply. You can wind up running from every social hiccup. (Did you flee the US for the BLM protests? But maybe there were days when it was wiser to not go downtown.) You have to correctly judge the level of the problem, and not run away from too many of the small ones, and not miss any of the big ones. It's a tough balance. If you can pull it off, though, it works far better than a bunker.
But it's hard to apply. You can wind up running from every social hiccup. (Did you flee the US for the BLM protests? But maybe there were days when it was wiser to not go downtown.) You have to correctly judge the level of the problem, and not run away from too many of the small ones, and not miss any of the big ones. It's a tough balance. If you can pull it off, though, it works far better than a bunker.
> You have to correctly judge the level of the problem, and not run away from too many of the small ones, and not miss any of the big ones.
That's not really how the emigration math works out in practice. Generally speaking, if the net benefits of leaving are greater than staying, that's enough justification to leave, even if society is still largely functioning and even if you could realistically make a difference(tm).
The idea that one is morally obligated to be responsible for change in their communities is just one aspect of the larger discussion of ethics vs distance: e.g. is it sensible to expect a sub-saharan african to deal w/ the ramifications of civil war while "doing one's part" consists of merely advocating for the homeless in California?
What, then, of africans who go to CA for a better life, and what of those who aren't willing to leave CA to get their hands dirty on the more pressing humanitarian issues in Africa?
There are many wildly different opinions on this dilemma, but IMHO when push comes to shove, individuals will first and foremost look after themselves - Philanthropy comes second to that.
Sometimes this means abandoning one local cause for a better "deal" (in terms of what a foreign society can provide in return for the value brought in by their immigration and their labor); the bigness of the local problem often doesn't even factor into the equation, as by definition, social problems can't be easily solved by one individual's actions alone.
That's not really how the emigration math works out in practice. Generally speaking, if the net benefits of leaving are greater than staying, that's enough justification to leave, even if society is still largely functioning and even if you could realistically make a difference(tm).
The idea that one is morally obligated to be responsible for change in their communities is just one aspect of the larger discussion of ethics vs distance: e.g. is it sensible to expect a sub-saharan african to deal w/ the ramifications of civil war while "doing one's part" consists of merely advocating for the homeless in California?
What, then, of africans who go to CA for a better life, and what of those who aren't willing to leave CA to get their hands dirty on the more pressing humanitarian issues in Africa?
There are many wildly different opinions on this dilemma, but IMHO when push comes to shove, individuals will first and foremost look after themselves - Philanthropy comes second to that.
Sometimes this means abandoning one local cause for a better "deal" (in terms of what a foreign society can provide in return for the value brought in by their immigration and their labor); the bigness of the local problem often doesn't even factor into the equation, as by definition, social problems can't be easily solved by one individual's actions alone.
Right, but if I've got a job, and a community, the benefits of leaving almost never outweigh the benefits of staying, unless staying is headed for real trouble. And the question is, how big is the trouble that we're headed for. And, look, the crystal ball's on the blink again, just when we need it...
I'd argue a community is even more important in cities and suburbs than in smaller towns and rural areas (where you can have more space to both prepare and sustain yourself as an individual). Within a city, especially for apartment dwellers, you have little space for storage of essentials and could find yourself "stuck" on the 10th or higher floor of an apartment building, with limited access to any essentials without knowing your neighbors and relying on each other to make it through a short-term disaster.
That might be true, but that's also an extreme scenario. If I'm stuck on the 10th floor because the stuff outside is dangerous, I'm reaching for a weapon before I'm texting friends to ask about grocery stores.
If we're at the point where people are actually reaching for a weapon and shooting their neighbors, most of us are fucked regardless of where we are.
Actually knowing and being known and trusted by your neighbors is one way to prevent this hypothetical Mad Max dystopia.
The idea of being stuck on the 10th floor without power and not having a Mad Max dystopia is actually quite feasible with the state of the US electric grid and preparations for extreme storms. Knowing your neighbors means you, if you're unable to go up/down the stairs for whatever reason, are not totally alone for days or weeks while infrastructure is restored. Based on going through hurricanes in the US South, it's usually been better to know other people than to believe you're truly self-reliant.
Actually knowing and being known and trusted by your neighbors is one way to prevent this hypothetical Mad Max dystopia.
The idea of being stuck on the 10th floor without power and not having a Mad Max dystopia is actually quite feasible with the state of the US electric grid and preparations for extreme storms. Knowing your neighbors means you, if you're unable to go up/down the stairs for whatever reason, are not totally alone for days or weeks while infrastructure is restored. Based on going through hurricanes in the US South, it's usually been better to know other people than to believe you're truly self-reliant.
I don’t know what your city life is like, but I have made it a priority to get to know my neighbors. In case of emergency I think we can all depend on each other.
New York. It's a mixed bag in terms of what "neighbors" means. It's not a culture where people knock on the doors across the hall and chat about the weather or borrow sugar.
This is a good source for combating that effect: https://www.allsides.com/
0. Have a good sized, trusted, reachable community/social group. Regardless of whether it's a short term or long term disaster, this is always useful and would become essential in the long term case.
1. Be prepared to leave if it's a true collapse.
2. Otherwise, prepare like you would for any other short-term disaster.
a. Water purification/filtration system
b. Some water to last a few weeks, beyond that use (a)
c. 3-6 months of food stuffs (canned and dried goods)
d. Some method of cooking said food stuffs for up to a month (beyond that you're dealing with a more complete collapse and there's little to do short of having your own small scale farm)
e. Some method of charging/running electronics without a grid (gas generator, solar panels, large batteries)
f. Some method of temporary heating (cooling is irrelevant, open the windows, but in the winter further north you need heat)
g. Stay healthy and fit, not crazy gym rat fit, but if you can't walk 5 miles at a leisurely pace in 2 hours, you're not close to healthy or fit.
h. Keep vehicles fueled (no less than half a tank) and a gas can topped off (use this periodically, fuel spoils)
i. Alternate mode of transportation (bicycle)
j. Basic tools for maintaining all or most of the equipment needed above
k. Have medications stored and ready to last at least a few weeks, longer for more critical conditions (my high cholesterol can be left untreated for extended periods, someone's thyroid or heart condition cannot)
3. If you want to prepare for a total collapse and don't want to leave the country acquire several acres of wooded land with a good sized garden plot and plant stuff. Have a fireplace/wood burning stove for winter heating, possibly for cooking. Look into other techniques of sustainable living. Probably also weapons. Know your neighbors and develop associations that can help post-collapse, because going solo is not going to be much fun.
1. Be prepared to leave if it's a true collapse.
2. Otherwise, prepare like you would for any other short-term disaster.
a. Water purification/filtration system
b. Some water to last a few weeks, beyond that use (a)
c. 3-6 months of food stuffs (canned and dried goods)
d. Some method of cooking said food stuffs for up to a month (beyond that you're dealing with a more complete collapse and there's little to do short of having your own small scale farm)
e. Some method of charging/running electronics without a grid (gas generator, solar panels, large batteries)
f. Some method of temporary heating (cooling is irrelevant, open the windows, but in the winter further north you need heat)
g. Stay healthy and fit, not crazy gym rat fit, but if you can't walk 5 miles at a leisurely pace in 2 hours, you're not close to healthy or fit.
h. Keep vehicles fueled (no less than half a tank) and a gas can topped off (use this periodically, fuel spoils)
i. Alternate mode of transportation (bicycle)
j. Basic tools for maintaining all or most of the equipment needed above
k. Have medications stored and ready to last at least a few weeks, longer for more critical conditions (my high cholesterol can be left untreated for extended periods, someone's thyroid or heart condition cannot)
3. If you want to prepare for a total collapse and don't want to leave the country acquire several acres of wooded land with a good sized garden plot and plant stuff. Have a fireplace/wood burning stove for winter heating, possibly for cooking. Look into other techniques of sustainable living. Probably also weapons. Know your neighbors and develop associations that can help post-collapse, because going solo is not going to be much fun.
I spoke to someone from Ethiopia recently who was living in the US after fleeing their country due to concerns about their government. Their approach was to get a study visa. Covid notwithstanding, this would let you enter another country for a prolonged period of time, and you could use your time there to pick your life back up. Canada, for example, has a much more lax immigration policy compared to the US.
I went the study visa -> work visa -> permanent residency -> citizenship path myself - though, thankfully, I had the luxury of not having the pressure of being forced to leave behind a country with an unstable government (I went from Brazil to Canada). I've since also obtained a US green card (I had that process started before this whole "election steal" kerfuffle started).
The obvious downside of this approach is that it might become difficult to visit family (e.g. because international travel can be expensive, but in the Ethiopia case, literally due to fear of political backlash), though if the alternative comes down to literally having to stock up on guns and ammo, that might not be a bad trade-off...
I went the study visa -> work visa -> permanent residency -> citizenship path myself - though, thankfully, I had the luxury of not having the pressure of being forced to leave behind a country with an unstable government (I went from Brazil to Canada). I've since also obtained a US green card (I had that process started before this whole "election steal" kerfuffle started).
The obvious downside of this approach is that it might become difficult to visit family (e.g. because international travel can be expensive, but in the Ethiopia case, literally due to fear of political backlash), though if the alternative comes down to literally having to stock up on guns and ammo, that might not be a bad trade-off...
1. Network of good friends.
2. Guns
3. Canned food stockpile
4. Passports
5. Small amount of cash on hands
6. Rest in large international bank
On Number 2. Calibers to consider due to their prevalence:
1. .22lr - Doesn't pack too much punch but it's good for hunting small game. It's very easy to stock >10,000 rounds of this ammunition.
2. 9mm - Most common handgun caliber in the world and has a high enough muzzle energy to be useful over longer distances with a rifle or carbine length barrel.
3. .308 - Most common hunting cartridge and packs a huge punch. It's effective range is 800m and can drop a moose.
4. 12 Gauge Shells - Any engagement under 100m is where 00 buckshot shines. Shotguns are absolutely gruesome close up and much more effective than many other options. Super cheap as well.
5. 5.56 / .223 - This is the cartridge used by most AR15 pattern rifles in the hands of both the military and law enforcement.
Note: Buying ammo is super difficult/expensive right now since the start of covid and the protests in June. It'd be best to stick to .22lr and 12 gauge if you don't already have a supply..
1. .22lr - Doesn't pack too much punch but it's good for hunting small game. It's very easy to stock >10,000 rounds of this ammunition.
2. 9mm - Most common handgun caliber in the world and has a high enough muzzle energy to be useful over longer distances with a rifle or carbine length barrel.
3. .308 - Most common hunting cartridge and packs a huge punch. It's effective range is 800m and can drop a moose.
4. 12 Gauge Shells - Any engagement under 100m is where 00 buckshot shines. Shotguns are absolutely gruesome close up and much more effective than many other options. Super cheap as well.
5. 5.56 / .223 - This is the cartridge used by most AR15 pattern rifles in the hands of both the military and law enforcement.
Note: Buying ammo is super difficult/expensive right now since the start of covid and the protests in June. It'd be best to stick to .22lr and 12 gauge if you don't already have a supply..
Regarding #6, 99% of my assets are in US banks, real estate, and brokerage firms. Many of these banks and firms operate internationally. Do I still need to transfer to truly international banks ?
As long as, they have branches outside of the US, I think you will be fine. Also as a U.S. citizen, you will find out that not many non-American bank will do business with you.
Stockpile some water, too, and some fuel for a stove. (Hey, stockpile the stove as well.) Spares of any medicines you take, if you can. Some toilet paper. And some spare gasoline. This is pretty much the same as a decent emergency stash, which you should have anyway.
Water purification tablets and water filtration systems are always at the top of my list.
[deleted]
Know your neighbors, know which you can trust and which you can't. Be someone they can trust, make sure they know that.
If you or a family member depend on medicines which require refrigeration or devices which need recharging, it may be wise to invest in backup power systems. This can mean anything from a big deep-cycle battery that can run a fridge for 12 hours, to small solar panels that can recharge phones and laptops, to multi-kilowatt whole-home generators.
Helpful site I’ve used to price out solar systems:
https://www.mobile-solarpower.com/
These systems are also useful in natural disaster scenarios.
Helpful site I’ve used to price out solar systems:
https://www.mobile-solarpower.com/
These systems are also useful in natural disaster scenarios.
Call me naive, but I'm not really worried about the near-term. There will likely be more unrest, mostly at government buildings, but a rabble of extremists can't overthrow the most powerful government in the world on their own. The real danger was when they had lawmakers and the president on their side, but the president is about to be out and many of the lawmakers seem to be souring on this movement (including - crucially - Mitch McConnell, an influential figure in the party).
Now, what I am concerned about is the mid-to-long-term. Deepening economic inequality remains a serious problem for people on both the left and the right - I would argue it's the root cause of the unrest we're witnessing - and it shows no signs of slowing down. And I haven't seen the incoming administration provide any real plan to solve it. Also, the extremist circles won't suddenly disappear just because they stop being placated. They may end up voting en force in the midterms and/or the next presidential election. Trump has talked about starting a "news" network in the meantime which could keep the base stoked. He could then run again in 2024- or, possibly worse, a younger and smarter version of him who could actually capitalize on the seeds that he's planted.
But I think we now have at least a couple years of relative stability ahead. Maybe that time should be used to prepare. I know I'll be renewing my passport.
Now, what I am concerned about is the mid-to-long-term. Deepening economic inequality remains a serious problem for people on both the left and the right - I would argue it's the root cause of the unrest we're witnessing - and it shows no signs of slowing down. And I haven't seen the incoming administration provide any real plan to solve it. Also, the extremist circles won't suddenly disappear just because they stop being placated. They may end up voting en force in the midterms and/or the next presidential election. Trump has talked about starting a "news" network in the meantime which could keep the base stoked. He could then run again in 2024- or, possibly worse, a younger and smarter version of him who could actually capitalize on the seeds that he's planted.
But I think we now have at least a couple years of relative stability ahead. Maybe that time should be used to prepare. I know I'll be renewing my passport.
Don't ignore Mike Pence. When the chips were down, he counted the votes as the states approved them. If he had gone along with Trump's fiction, this could have gotten really crazy. I think Pence was at least as crucial as McConnell.
It's crazy to make a hero out of someone that just did his elected job and obviously admitting that 1+1=2. In fact he is complicit for not whisteblowing all the crazy stuff apparently Trump told him to do or saw.
This [0] article on prepping got some decent discussion [1] recently. For something a little more "out there" perhaps check out JWR and his books [2].
[0]: https://lcamtuf.coredump.cx/prep/ [1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25060418 [2]: https://survivalblog.com/
[0]: https://lcamtuf.coredump.cx/prep/ [1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25060418 [2]: https://survivalblog.com/
A plane ticket.
If things do kick off US is probably the last country I'd want to be. Way too many people armed to the teeth eager to try out their netflix walking dead acquired survival skills.
If things do kick off US is probably the last country I'd want to be. Way too many people armed to the teeth eager to try out their netflix walking dead acquired survival skills.
Disaster planning for less crazy folk
https://lcamtuf.coredump.cx/prep/
Join mutual aid groups. Learn necessary community skills.
- Obtain second residency/citizenship in a tax friendly jurisdiction. Place to go away on a short notice when s*t hits the fan. If voting with your hands doesn't help - vote with your feet.
- Untie your savings and assets from US financial system. Crypto has many variations on how to do that.
- Untie your savings and assets from US financial system. Crypto has many variations on how to do that.
How should I do this if my net worth is below $20M?
Panama Permanent Residency costs only around $3-4k in legal fees.
Panama has territorial taxation means you pay zero in personal income tax if your income comes from outside of Panama. (If you're US citizen then IRS will charge your for that privilege regardless).
You can buy 2-3 bedroom oveanfront condo in Panama for around $300-$400k
Panama has territorial taxation means you pay zero in personal income tax if your income comes from outside of Panama. (If you're US citizen then IRS will charge your for that privilege regardless).
You can buy 2-3 bedroom oveanfront condo in Panama for around $300-$400k
Visa in Europe in cyprus/portugal/greece/Hungary does not need a lot of money as investment.
Cyprus has been looking like a decent option - however I'm far too young and poor to make a move like this haha. I'll clutch my self defense whistle for now!
edit - yeah no way for at least five years unless I get a huge break or raise. The current minimum for investment citizenship is $2M euros [0]. Damn, I really shouldn't have mucked up the relationship with my ex girlfriend from Maldova who was a citizen of Cyprus!
0 - https://www.goldenvisas.com/cyprus
edit - yeah no way for at least five years unless I get a huge break or raise. The current minimum for investment citizenship is $2M euros [0]. Damn, I really shouldn't have mucked up the relationship with my ex girlfriend from Maldova who was a citizen of Cyprus!
0 - https://www.goldenvisas.com/cyprus
Read Richard K. Taylor's Training Manual for Nonviolent Defense Against the Coup d'Etat. The difference between stability and instability can be decided by a few prepared individuals who act when time is of the essence.
Any summary pointers you'd care to share?
It depends.
Short term. Unless you are in the epicenter. Stay in your house. Build a good community network.
Longer term. Passport, cash, friends overseas. Leave on time. Don't wait until it is too late. Think about Venezuela, Siria, Nazi Germany.
Short term. Unless you are in the epicenter. Stay in your house. Build a good community network.
Longer term. Passport, cash, friends overseas. Leave on time. Don't wait until it is too late. Think about Venezuela, Siria, Nazi Germany.
Honestly if usa collapses not many places will be safe worldwide. That would be a major event in history and could bring civilization down
> Longer term. Passport, cash, friends overseas. Leave on time. Don't wait until it is too late. Think about Venezuela, Siria, Nazi Germany.
Is this not just a cowards way out? Staying around to help those that don't have the means to leave seems like the much nobler option.
Is this not just a cowards way out? Staying around to help those that don't have the means to leave seems like the much nobler option.
do you have a family? i'm going to be prioritizing my family's safety over anyone else's
If the mob (crowd, not criminal) or government are coming for you and yours, it's not cowardly to make an exit.
What's wrong with being a coward? Everyone has a different baked-in aversion to risk. Part of personality trait Neuroticism, I think.
"You know what the definition of a hero is? Someone who gets other people killed." ~ Zoe from Firefly
"You know what the definition of a hero is? Someone who gets other people killed." ~ Zoe from Firefly
Besides the obvious (money, guns, passport, medicine, etc), Gold Rolex watches. Don’t ask me how I know.
hope you bought some guns and ammo last year with your stimulus money
My in-laws survived life in a communist country that would have resulted in imprisonment if anyone found out his true identity. He prepared when the communists were taking over by getting fake identity papers. Learned a new skill to earn a living in the cash economy. Moved several times. Eventually got rescued by an American immigration program accepting those who worked for American contractors. If America becomes a failed state I really don’t know where to turn.
bitcoin. better late than never...
[deleted]
Buy a can of chrome silver paint, you'll find it useful on the road to Valhalla
[0] https://static.wikia.nocookie.net/roadwarrior/images/0/07/Ch...
[0] https://static.wikia.nocookie.net/roadwarrior/images/0/07/Ch...
What can I do to prepare myself for potential further instability?