Get ready for many more record-shattering heatwaves(axios.com)
axios.com
Get ready for many more record-shattering heatwaves
https://www.axios.com/record-shattering-heat-waves-becoming-far-more-likely-study-e13fde50-45d8-4bcd-bc86-efecba6c5217.html
33 comments
If the situation is this bad now, how bad is it going to be in ten years? Ugh.
Ten years? Just think of 60 years from now, a time that would be expected to be within the natural lifespan of children born today.
I don't know how people don't understand that we face, without exaggeration, an existential crisis.
I don't know how people don't understand that we face, without exaggeration, an existential crisis.
There are different definitions of "we" there. Do you think of "we" as the human race or "we" as in yourself and your partner or maybe your immediate family? Not everyone thinks of "we" in the same way.
If you're so narcissistic/nihilistic/whatever as to fall into the latter group, what do you care? Appeals to future generations won't work on people who only care about themselves.
They also won't work on people who only care about next quarter's earnings, either, and that's another issue.
If you're so narcissistic/nihilistic/whatever as to fall into the latter group, what do you care? Appeals to future generations won't work on people who only care about themselves.
They also won't work on people who only care about next quarter's earnings, either, and that's another issue.
I am actually one of those nihilists, in that I have no stake in the next generation and only a faint interest in "the good of humanity", but what I care about is the fact that climate change denialism is part of a constellation of anti-intellectualism that makes my life worse today, right now.
Climate change denialism has enormous overlap with the people who promote COVID denialism. Even before that crisis, they were responsible for creationism and anti-same-sex-marriage (which has since become legal without the world collapsing).
These aren't matters of opinion, values, or world-view. They're Just Plain Wrong. Nor am I talking about fringe opinions; these are political party platforms and talking points that candidates rely on to attract voters.
There are tons of other areas where I am quite certain they're wrong, but more importantly, they argue about them using the same poor forms that they use for climate change. They cherry-pick, they are manipulated by deliberate disinformation, and they place their own ignorance over knowledge.
That creates a hostile, toxic atmosphere in which there is no way for me to convince them, even on the things that are as conclusively scientific as it's possible for a thing to be. That makes it beyond impossible in areas where there might actually be room for legitimate disagreement.
So yeah, I care a lot about climate change, but not because I'll be alive, nor my direct descendants. The way we talk about climate change makes my life a lot worse, today. I believe that we've seen a deliberate inculcation of an anti-intellectual bent in the US that has become weaponized.
Climate change denialism has enormous overlap with the people who promote COVID denialism. Even before that crisis, they were responsible for creationism and anti-same-sex-marriage (which has since become legal without the world collapsing).
These aren't matters of opinion, values, or world-view. They're Just Plain Wrong. Nor am I talking about fringe opinions; these are political party platforms and talking points that candidates rely on to attract voters.
There are tons of other areas where I am quite certain they're wrong, but more importantly, they argue about them using the same poor forms that they use for climate change. They cherry-pick, they are manipulated by deliberate disinformation, and they place their own ignorance over knowledge.
That creates a hostile, toxic atmosphere in which there is no way for me to convince them, even on the things that are as conclusively scientific as it's possible for a thing to be. That makes it beyond impossible in areas where there might actually be room for legitimate disagreement.
So yeah, I care a lot about climate change, but not because I'll be alive, nor my direct descendants. The way we talk about climate change makes my life a lot worse, today. I believe that we've seen a deliberate inculcation of an anti-intellectual bent in the US that has become weaponized.
> anti-same-sex-marriage (which has since become legal without the world collapsing).
It doesn't happen overnight: https://www.kirkdurston.com/blog/unwin
I'm not a Christian either.
It doesn't happen overnight: https://www.kirkdurston.com/blog/unwin
I'm not a Christian either.
Maybe I'm not rich enough to get it, but let's say I do only care about me, and no one else. In the event of catastrophic climate collapse, sure, I could hypothetically escape on my evil villian billionaire yacht to Oceania, but even if I'm personally fine, my estate (as rich people call their houses) is going to be destroyed. My Miami beachfront condo is literally underwater, as is my Venice summer home, and NYC condo.
Let's say I'm rich and selfish and care only about things and not people. If I bother to look into the future, don't I have more real estate to lose than the poors, who might have one (or fewer!) homes to lose?
Your second point, that long term thinking is hard seems to be a bigger issue, even more so for anybody who is living paycheck-to-paycheck. It's too difficult to get rid of, eg, single use plastic in my life as an ordinary consumer. How do we set things up so the system is incentivized to change itself? Especially when the culture is opposed to any change in the first place.
Let's say I'm rich and selfish and care only about things and not people. If I bother to look into the future, don't I have more real estate to lose than the poors, who might have one (or fewer!) homes to lose?
Your second point, that long term thinking is hard seems to be a bigger issue, even more so for anybody who is living paycheck-to-paycheck. It's too difficult to get rid of, eg, single use plastic in my life as an ordinary consumer. How do we set things up so the system is incentivized to change itself? Especially when the culture is opposed to any change in the first place.
I didn't really bring up rich vs not rich, because it's more about empathetic vs narcissistic or societal vs anti-social. The event of a catastrophic climate collapse that you describe is probably not going to happen in our lifetimes, so if you're of the anti-social mindset, what do you care what happens to the Earth or society at large, especially after you're gone? Some people aren't going to change their behavior for the benefit of people they'll never even meet (separated by space or time), let alone never care about.
Hope there is no situation where another planet comes into existence and there scientists discover that there was a planet named "Earth" like we read now.
The keyword is "we".
Rich people can burn carbon to run their air conditioners. They can buy real estate on higher ground. So, no problem for them.
Rich people can burn carbon to run their air conditioners. They can buy real estate on higher ground. So, no problem for them.
Sadly, I don't see change happening.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.oregonlive.com/news/2020/02...
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.oregonlive.com/news/2020/02...
Unfortunately passing laws will do little to affect change. It requires intervention on a global scale, possibly triggered by civilization collapse or military intervention.
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Societies globally are expected to collapse around 2040s-2050s and I hope that'll be the wake up call that won't be too late for the very few children of today who are going to survive it.
Of course, there is almost no discussion about methodology and data sets, which is just about all there is when it comes to these modeling studies. The closest they come is saying that the paper preceeded the pacnorwest heat wave.
It seems like the closest you could hope to come to scientific method in these studies is to try to divide the world's geography into a set of geographical pairs that could be considered climatically similar but distant enough from one another to be decorrelated in terms of weather systems. For example, maybe Mediterranean climates on the Mediterranean paired with comparable regions in coastal California. Then, use a random selection of one region from each pair in all the set of pairs to be used as training data, with the other component of each pair for testing.
Maybe this is already done? I recognize that drawing such equivalency is impossible, but it seems like it might be an improvement nonetheless.
It seems like the closest you could hope to come to scientific method in these studies is to try to divide the world's geography into a set of geographical pairs that could be considered climatically similar but distant enough from one another to be decorrelated in terms of weather systems. For example, maybe Mediterranean climates on the Mediterranean paired with comparable regions in coastal California. Then, use a random selection of one region from each pair in all the set of pairs to be used as training data, with the other component of each pair for testing.
Maybe this is already done? I recognize that drawing such equivalency is impossible, but it seems like it might be an improvement nonetheless.
https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/
If you know, you know.
If you know, you know.
we are doomed!!
The worst part is that we've known we were doomed for over a hundred years.
steadily confirms my hypothesis that humanity is "too stupid" to stop this, we will destroy ourselves like yeast producing too high alcohol concentrations. Evolution just didn't had to optimize for this, making us "stupid" as a society / species. Of course it starts now, but there is just too little time - the differential equation tipped too fast.
Might also be the solution to the great filter: Once optimization for the hard problem of "supremacy" / massive expansion is solved, there is too little time to optimize for self-regulation. There sure are possibilities to solve this, but require huge amounts of luck, e.g. discovering clean & especially cheaply salable energy sources quickly enough, adding another tiny coefficient to the drake equation
Might also be the solution to the great filter: Once optimization for the hard problem of "supremacy" / massive expansion is solved, there is too little time to optimize for self-regulation. There sure are possibilities to solve this, but require huge amounts of luck, e.g. discovering clean & especially cheaply salable energy sources quickly enough, adding another tiny coefficient to the drake equation
> e.g. discovering clean & especially cheaply salable energy sources quickly enough
In our case, it's also a matter of actually using what we discover vs continue using petroleum
In our case, it's also a matter of actually using what we discover vs continue using petroleum
Yes, thats what I would count under behavioral / "stupidity", but if we had a source that is cheaper than petroleum already, e.g. SMR fusion we would automatically stop using fossils
I like the theory that Humanity is more like a fungus / parasite....
However, whats super interesting to watch unfold is that as we hit this "peak climate" phase - all the other things that are happening around it, FN UAP/UFO sightings and semi-disclosure is unprecedented... and clearly they have some sort of zero-point or better energy capabilities... and just the general shift (albeit slowly) in global awareness on a myriad of matters...
While there is a subtle subtext of Dread in the zeitgeist, I still feel optimistic... aside from the overall global oligarch-parasite-class, which I hope we figure out a solution to...
I'm still waiting for silicon valley to "make the world a better place" - each time I attempt to contribute to that, it kind of backfires on me... hopefully I can change that.
However, whats super interesting to watch unfold is that as we hit this "peak climate" phase - all the other things that are happening around it, FN UAP/UFO sightings and semi-disclosure is unprecedented... and clearly they have some sort of zero-point or better energy capabilities... and just the general shift (albeit slowly) in global awareness on a myriad of matters...
While there is a subtle subtext of Dread in the zeitgeist, I still feel optimistic... aside from the overall global oligarch-parasite-class, which I hope we figure out a solution to...
I'm still waiting for silicon valley to "make the world a better place" - each time I attempt to contribute to that, it kind of backfires on me... hopefully I can change that.
True, the capabilities & behavior of humanity will only really show when it gets "hard". If civilization & economy can hold up long enough to make massive efforts to recapture it could work. Im more realistic & think big powers will start to geoingineer to fight the symptoms while everything gets worse, but lets see & work for the best...
Totally agree with this sentiment... the Geo-engineering is in full swing... I do find the DEWs intriguing, as the footage of them sparking off fires in CA are pretty compelling, but not entirely believable....
I find the massive floodings in Germany, Belgium and also China to be very interesting...
It was already stated many times regarding the chinese using weather modification to create effectively what we referred to as "acid rain" in the 1980s - in an effort to sequester particulate pollution in some cities -- there are several possibilities:
1. Freak 10,000-year flooding
2. Weather warfare via HAARP or such
3. Weather modification fuckup gone awry (or intentional)
4. We broke the weather system some time ago and weather modification and technologies such as HAARP are being used in a failed attempt to fix the weather system. (I love this science fiction take on it, personally)
I find the massive floodings in Germany, Belgium and also China to be very interesting...
It was already stated many times regarding the chinese using weather modification to create effectively what we referred to as "acid rain" in the 1980s - in an effort to sequester particulate pollution in some cities -- there are several possibilities:
1. Freak 10,000-year flooding
2. Weather warfare via HAARP or such
3. Weather modification fuckup gone awry (or intentional)
4. We broke the weather system some time ago and weather modification and technologies such as HAARP are being used in a failed attempt to fix the weather system. (I love this science fiction take on it, personally)
Im sorry to tell you but most of your ideas do not have any solid foundation / are quite from the conspiracy corner.
concerning the heavy rain: with every degree more the air can hold much more water as vapour and the point of starting to rain shifts, meaning it takes longer to "start" to rain & then much more comes out. Which perfectly fits what we see: more droughts & heavy rain sadly...
I meant more smth like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSu5sXmsur4
I meant more smth like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSu5sXmsur4
I find exploring conspiracy ideas to be fun.
I'll trust the science - but I also love science fiction.
When it comes to extreme flooding, I find the foundations of my understanding to be extremely fluid.
I'll trust the science - but I also love science fiction.
When it comes to extreme flooding, I find the foundations of my understanding to be extremely fluid.
Thats fine, I just have trouble with ideas like german flood being the result of geoengineering not clearly marked as science fiction.
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That seems like a reasonable assessment of the situation. I don’t know what it is with HN and absurd contrarian takes.