Ask HN: How many jabs needed for Omicron?
16 comments
A large percentage of Moderna’s revenue is just from the Vaccine (with some googling you can confirm it’s an overwhelming amount). Moderna was more or less a startup.
When political theater writes blank checks to pharma companies, they go on to rake in billions on a quarterly basis just from the vaccine.
So, if we follow the money, third booster will be mandatory, followed with ‘highly-recommended’ fourth vaccine for the vulnerable class.
It’s a mix of money, politics, and actual health concerns that drive all of this. Do not for a second think that billion dollar quarters are being scoffed at, there are forces at work that will absolutely facilitate collecting this check. The icing on the cake is that it’s happening on a global scale.
When political theater writes blank checks to pharma companies, they go on to rake in billions on a quarterly basis just from the vaccine.
So, if we follow the money, third booster will be mandatory, followed with ‘highly-recommended’ fourth vaccine for the vulnerable class.
It’s a mix of money, politics, and actual health concerns that drive all of this. Do not for a second think that billion dollar quarters are being scoffed at, there are forces at work that will absolutely facilitate collecting this check. The icing on the cake is that it’s happening on a global scale.
I'm in no way an expert. however, its pretty much common knowledge that viruses mutate, given that it makes sense that vaccines need to be updated. i see two scenarios:
1. forever taking vaccines at periodic intervals, probably enforced by law, judge dredd style
2. this particular virus will become less severe once everyone had it + was vaccinated and overly aggressive mutations died out, vaccines will be recommended not enforced
1. forever taking vaccines at periodic intervals, probably enforced by law, judge dredd style
2. this particular virus will become less severe once everyone had it + was vaccinated and overly aggressive mutations died out, vaccines will be recommended not enforced
We simply don't know. Omicron hasn't been around long enough to make declarative statements. That being said, I think there is still reason for hope:
1. Omicron seems more infectious, but less lethal. Science still needs to collect more data, but the evidence seems to be leaning in this direction. [1]
2. Two shots of an mRNA vaccine still seem to show some protection against hospitalization and death. [2]
3. Three shots of an mRNA vaccine seem to be nearly as effective against Omicron as two shots were against previous strains. [3]
So, from my reading, the best case scenario is that Omicron becomes the dominant strain, is less lethal in unvaccinated populations, and no more dangerous to vaccinated populations, assuming booster shots are administered. If this is all true, it's a very good development.
The caveat is that all of these links are news reports, not scientific papers. I'm not a doctor, and neither are the people who wrote these, so they might be blowing smoke.
Also, it's common for vaccines to require multiple boosters before immunity "takes hold." The polio vaccine is given at 2 months, 4 months, 6-18 months, and 4-6 years, but then you're pretty much good. COVID might be defeated by a three-shot course. It might require yearly vaccinations. We don't know yet.
[1]: https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/omicron-covid-variant-...
[2]: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/...
[3]: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-study-find...
1. Omicron seems more infectious, but less lethal. Science still needs to collect more data, but the evidence seems to be leaning in this direction. [1]
2. Two shots of an mRNA vaccine still seem to show some protection against hospitalization and death. [2]
3. Three shots of an mRNA vaccine seem to be nearly as effective against Omicron as two shots were against previous strains. [3]
So, from my reading, the best case scenario is that Omicron becomes the dominant strain, is less lethal in unvaccinated populations, and no more dangerous to vaccinated populations, assuming booster shots are administered. If this is all true, it's a very good development.
The caveat is that all of these links are news reports, not scientific papers. I'm not a doctor, and neither are the people who wrote these, so they might be blowing smoke.
Also, it's common for vaccines to require multiple boosters before immunity "takes hold." The polio vaccine is given at 2 months, 4 months, 6-18 months, and 4-6 years, but then you're pretty much good. COVID might be defeated by a three-shot course. It might require yearly vaccinations. We don't know yet.
[1]: https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/omicron-covid-variant-...
[2]: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/...
[3]: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-study-find...
- 4 shots of an mRNA vaccine will protect against all variants of SARS-CoV-2
- 5 shots of an mRNA vaccine will protect against all coronaviruses, it starts to have a weak effect on rhinoviruses and influenza
- 6 shots of an mRNA vaccine will protect against all viruses, including HIV and Ebola, but in an unlikely twist of events, SARS-CoV-2 has now mutated to become a bacteria
- 7 shots of an mRNA vaccine will protect will also protect against bacteria, but SARS-CoV-2 now managed to move into computer networks thanks to the 5G capabilities of the vaccines
- With 8 shots of an mRNA vaccine, you will start to develop superpowers, but health experts don't recommend flying too high as the effects are temporary. SARS-CoV-2 managed to infect the blockchain, making itself completely invincible and non-refundable.
- With 9 shots of an mRNA vaccine, your entire DNA is replaced with viral RNA, allowing you to mutate at will, SARS-CoV-2 became really rich by selling a NFT of the original "Wuhan" genetic code and is running for elections.
- With 10 shots of an mRNA vaccine, you are now ready to conquer the galaxy in an ambitious program run by SARS-CoV-2, who just won the elections
- 5 shots of an mRNA vaccine will protect against all coronaviruses, it starts to have a weak effect on rhinoviruses and influenza
- 6 shots of an mRNA vaccine will protect against all viruses, including HIV and Ebola, but in an unlikely twist of events, SARS-CoV-2 has now mutated to become a bacteria
- 7 shots of an mRNA vaccine will protect will also protect against bacteria, but SARS-CoV-2 now managed to move into computer networks thanks to the 5G capabilities of the vaccines
- With 8 shots of an mRNA vaccine, you will start to develop superpowers, but health experts don't recommend flying too high as the effects are temporary. SARS-CoV-2 managed to infect the blockchain, making itself completely invincible and non-refundable.
- With 9 shots of an mRNA vaccine, your entire DNA is replaced with viral RNA, allowing you to mutate at will, SARS-CoV-2 became really rich by selling a NFT of the original "Wuhan" genetic code and is running for elections.
- With 10 shots of an mRNA vaccine, you are now ready to conquer the galaxy in an ambitious program run by SARS-CoV-2, who just won the elections
We don't know.
That's part of what's made COVID so difficult to manage - it's a new virus being fought with relatively new vaccine technology. Most of us are used to doctors giving us advice that's pretty stable and based on decades of research. But, in this case, most doctors don't have that much more information than what's being reported in the media (but they have a clinical background that helps interpret the results generally better than the public). Further, your doctor is going through the same emotional hurdles you're going through (e.g., wanting to get back to normal asap).
Jab count probably does matter, but I'm not sure anybody definitely knows how this plays out with these vaccines specifically (and, nobody can predict how the vaccines will respond to yet-unknown variants). In general, multiple exposures can impact antibody durability, the amount and types of antibodies you produce and even cause changes to the antigens your body will respond to. These aren't unique mRNA issues -- immunity issues exist with all types of vaccines.
So, it's great you're getting your third shot. It's probably safe to assume there'll be more shots in the future; what/when those future shots are isn't known... any specifics you get from anybody right now is just their guess.
That's part of what's made COVID so difficult to manage - it's a new virus being fought with relatively new vaccine technology. Most of us are used to doctors giving us advice that's pretty stable and based on decades of research. But, in this case, most doctors don't have that much more information than what's being reported in the media (but they have a clinical background that helps interpret the results generally better than the public). Further, your doctor is going through the same emotional hurdles you're going through (e.g., wanting to get back to normal asap).
Jab count probably does matter, but I'm not sure anybody definitely knows how this plays out with these vaccines specifically (and, nobody can predict how the vaccines will respond to yet-unknown variants). In general, multiple exposures can impact antibody durability, the amount and types of antibodies you produce and even cause changes to the antigens your body will respond to. These aren't unique mRNA issues -- immunity issues exist with all types of vaccines.
So, it's great you're getting your third shot. It's probably safe to assume there'll be more shots in the future; what/when those future shots are isn't known... any specifics you get from anybody right now is just their guess.
My understanding is that it’s less about the number of vaccines being effective against omicron than it is about the timeliness of how long it has been since you’ve gotten it.
Given the time since you’ve received your last dose, the amount of circulating antibodies in your system has dropped off. Your immune system still has the systems in place to recognize Covid and produce antibodies against it, but given the different structure of omicron the concern is that your system will be less effective in doing so. Getting a third jab, however, will cause your system to immediately start reproducing antibodies again, which seem to still be effective against the variant.
I am however, not a doctor nor a specialist in this field so anything I’ve written should be independently checked.
Given the time since you’ve received your last dose, the amount of circulating antibodies in your system has dropped off. Your immune system still has the systems in place to recognize Covid and produce antibodies against it, but given the different structure of omicron the concern is that your system will be less effective in doing so. Getting a third jab, however, will cause your system to immediately start reproducing antibodies again, which seem to still be effective against the variant.
I am however, not a doctor nor a specialist in this field so anything I’ve written should be independently checked.
Protection against infection by omicron with two vaccines is minimal (for that matter, it wasn’t great for delta); protection against severe illness is still believed to be substantial. The booster offers substantial protection from infection.
Israel is not, as far as anyone knows, preparing for a fourth vaccine, though it has been speculated about (and realistically most countries have contingency plans in that direction).
For now, it’s not really known how long protection against infection by a booster holds up. It might be an every six month job, it might require a fourth and no more, three might be sufficient. No-one knows.
Israel is not, as far as anyone knows, preparing for a fourth vaccine, though it has been speculated about (and realistically most countries have contingency plans in that direction).
For now, it’s not really known how long protection against infection by a booster holds up. It might be an every six month job, it might require a fourth and no more, three might be sufficient. No-one knows.
After 0 years of study I would say it's more "how long since the last jab" in current circumstances.
The other replies are good, but I want to add another possibility. Perhaps most people have some level of immunity due to vaccines or previos infections, we may change to s schedule similar to the flu. I.E., people in risk groups get an anual customized shot. Perhaps we can mix other coronavirus in the jab.
I get a flu vaccine shot every year so I expect a Covid shot at least that often. It is my understanding that the flu vaccine changes every year based on the projections of what flu will be the most common in the upcoming flu season. There are reasons to think Covid will be the same.
If it’s the Pfizer CEO talking then two is not enough. You need at least 4.
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About 26 jabs for the duration of your lifetime:
That is until they start merging jabs together.
That is until they start merging jabs together.
> Two COVID-19 jabs don't work against Omicron, but 3 do, which is why we must get boostered.
That makes sense to me and I've already booked an appointment for my 3rd jab. However, I would like to understand this a bit deeper to know what to expect for the rest of my life.
Are we saying that people who only get their first or second jab now are essentially very very little to nothing protected against Omicron until they get their third one? If they do have protection after a recent 1st or 2nd then are we saying that the jab count doesn't really matter and it's about time? Does it mean the mRNA vaccines only seem to work for about 3-4 months after the jab and then fade very rapidly? So we will need a 4th, then 5th, etc.?
I read not long ago that Israel is already preparing for a 4th vaccine rollout which would kind of support that idea.
Which one is it and what does that mean for the future?