The Price of Wheat(tradingeconomics.com)
tradingeconomics.com
The Price of Wheat
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/wheat
108 comments
You probably know this already but the hard winter wheat and soft white spring wheat are used to make different types of food. I imagine in the US food manufacturers will start trying to swap for hard winter wheat which it sounds like we’ll have a lot of.
But you’re right about planting season. It’s coming up fast and that window will close with no way to rewind if tensions die down.
But you’re right about planting season. It’s coming up fast and that window will close with no way to rewind if tensions die down.
It isn't so much production as transport. We may have a lot of wheat, but getting it shipped is way more expensive and ship into long beach are only on time about 10% of the time, pre covid, they were 90% on time. And it is a lot easier to get goods into smaller towns and farms etc, than it will be to pick up a bunch of shipments from rural areas.
This is related to something on my mind since I read about the impact of the Ukraine conflict on wheat: will the economic impacts of wheat deficits be equally spread worldwide?
I wondered about it because I am lucky I suppose to live in an area with a fair amount of local wheat production. During the pandemic I noticed that the locally produced wheat never really disappeared even though it was more expensive to begin with; the bigger brands totally disappeared from the shelves.
I could see this as making a bigger impact though, because it's affecting worldwide stock to a bigger extent, at the more basic level of production rather than supply chains per se. But if the local wheat isn't really going anywhere anyway, maybe it doesn't matter.
Between this and the pandemic it seems like smaller, local production is being rewarded more, at least where I am. Chains struggled but smaller local shops thrived.
I wondered about it because I am lucky I suppose to live in an area with a fair amount of local wheat production. During the pandemic I noticed that the locally produced wheat never really disappeared even though it was more expensive to begin with; the bigger brands totally disappeared from the shelves.
I could see this as making a bigger impact though, because it's affecting worldwide stock to a bigger extent, at the more basic level of production rather than supply chains per se. But if the local wheat isn't really going anywhere anyway, maybe it doesn't matter.
Between this and the pandemic it seems like smaller, local production is being rewarded more, at least where I am. Chains struggled but smaller local shops thrived.
Might not be a bad idea to monitor https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/#!topicid=&subtopicid=... WHS: Wheat Outlook. Also, the February report https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=103... has a section on Russia.
We might have reached the highest price of wheat in history. A lot of historical things happening as of late.
We may be seeing the highest nominal price for wheat in US history, but we are nowhere near the highest inflation adjusted price. The price of wheat in 1866 was $2.06/bu [0]. That is $36.43/bu in 2022 prices.
In times of famine, prices have of course been higher. Just for fun, the rider of the black horse in the book of revelations prices a quart of wheat at one denarius (a typical days wage at the time). If you go by the 4.4g silver content of the coin, that comes out to $3.64 per quart or $135/bu.
[0] https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/wheat-data/
In times of famine, prices have of course been higher. Just for fun, the rider of the black horse in the book of revelations prices a quart of wheat at one denarius (a typical days wage at the time). If you go by the 4.4g silver content of the coin, that comes out to $3.64 per quart or $135/bu.
[0] https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/wheat-data/
This is a great time to be on a low carb diet.
Everything is more expensive, wheat is probably among the cheapest staple items. Meat prices are already higher, fruit and vegetable prices will get there
What do you think the low carbs eat?
The vegans/vegetarians eat vegetables. The low carbohydrate omnivores on Paleo and/or Healthy Keto eat a mix of vegetables and meats. Those on carnivore diets eat mostly non gmo grass fed meats from what I have seen.
Not wheat, typically.
Beef is up too.
Beef is often counter-cyclical with grain prices, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it drop. When the price of feed goes up, cattlemen sell cattle depressing its price. When the price of feed goes down, cattlemen expand their herds, temporarily decreasing the number of cattle for sale.
Great time to be on a plant based gluten free diet!
Everything's on the up.
I'm an omnivore, and use tofu for meals on occasion. On my trip to the Asian market yesterday (cheapest price around), tofu was 50% higher than what I paid last trip two or three months ago (was $1.39 for House Foods 10oz - a common brand around here, now $1.99). Nothing's safe.
I'm an omnivore, and use tofu for meals on occasion. On my trip to the Asian market yesterday (cheapest price around), tofu was 50% higher than what I paid last trip two or three months ago (was $1.39 for House Foods 10oz - a common brand around here, now $1.99). Nothing's safe.
Fertilizer costs are skyrocketing, and Russia is saying not to export to western nations now too.
Not so much if you buy it direct and avoid the store/middlemen markups.
Dark days ahead of us.. money won't be enough if everyone is fighting for the same resources.. then we'll have water issues very soon, things are changing at a very fast pace, it's scary
I don't get how and why water could ever be an existential problem for humanity, other than in extremely remote drought regions. Yes, desalination plants and other infrastructure investments may make it more expensive, but it doesn't seem to be a fundamentally scarce resource.
Also pipelines are already proven via oil and natural gas. You can transport oil from remote areas in Canada to western Texas with little effort.
Very trivial to extend the idea to routing water from any of the thousands of lakes in Canada.
Vegas had a plan to do just that (though from Reno). These ideas aren't pursued because water is not scarce enough for them to be economically justified yet. If the time comes, they will do it and likely cheaper than you think.
If renewables eventually take over, we can even repurpose the existing oil pipelines. Likely need to widen them, but much cheaper than land use/zoning legal battles.
Very trivial to extend the idea to routing water from any of the thousands of lakes in Canada.
Vegas had a plan to do just that (though from Reno). These ideas aren't pursued because water is not scarce enough for them to be economically justified yet. If the time comes, they will do it and likely cheaper than you think.
If renewables eventually take over, we can even repurpose the existing oil pipelines. Likely need to widen them, but much cheaper than land use/zoning legal battles.
Not trivial at all. It's billions of dollars, huge amounts of energy to pump water up and down mountain ranges, many years of construction, many more years of litigation... And why on earth would Canada give us their water?
There was a plan to pipe water to California from the Pacific north west, and the projected costs for that were insane.
By the time the high price of water justifies projects on this scale, there will be blood in the streets, not water in aqueducts.
There was a plan to pipe water to California from the Pacific north west, and the projected costs for that were insane.
By the time the high price of water justifies projects on this scale, there will be blood in the streets, not water in aqueducts.
Billions of dollars isn’t actually that expensive for governments. Such projects are only considered expensive because water is not currently a problem.
Billions is peanuts vs abandoning trillions of dollars of real estate and uprooting millions of people's lives.
Sorry, doomsday abandonment scenario is a complete fantasy, void of any logic.
People talk about colonizing Mars, yet suggest we can't pump water from point A to B
Sorry, doomsday abandonment scenario is a complete fantasy, void of any logic.
People talk about colonizing Mars, yet suggest we can't pump water from point A to B
No abandonment fantasy: but how are the states and federal government going to come up with billions of dollars that are going to make life easier for a handful of farmers and rich Californians? You think the the constituents of the southern and eastern states will vote for 100s of billions of tax money to be spent on something they see as helping liberal coastal dwellers?
How much is all that central valley land worth with ongoing saltwater intrusion?
Where will you get the gigawatts needed to run all the water pumps? New hydro dams?
You are throwing out a solution as if it's easy and feasible. It is certainly not easy, and feasibility , well... We shall see.
How much is all that central valley land worth with ongoing saltwater intrusion?
Where will you get the gigawatts needed to run all the water pumps? New hydro dams?
You are throwing out a solution as if it's easy and feasible. It is certainly not easy, and feasibility , well... We shall see.
Most shortages of water are caused by an inability to build and maintain infrastructure, not an inherent scarcity of water.
An inability to build & maintain infrastructure is a common feature of times of scarcity. It's hard to organize people toward a common goal when there's an imminent threat to survival.
Sure, in theory there's plenty of water on the globe, and it's just a matter of getting it to population centers. In theory all we have to do to avert global warming in the first place is reduce our CO2 emissions. In practice both of those goals are essentially impossible, because it's a coordination problem and coordination problems are significantly harder than technological and economic problems.
Sure, in theory there's plenty of water on the globe, and it's just a matter of getting it to population centers. In theory all we have to do to avert global warming in the first place is reduce our CO2 emissions. In practice both of those goals are essentially impossible, because it's a coordination problem and coordination problems are significantly harder than technological and economic problems.
These problems will tend to evaporate when water starts running low enough to impact people's daily lives.
Civilization adapts quickly once somebody pokes the bear.
Civilization adapts quickly once somebody pokes the bear.
I would love to see a historical survey of what circumstances and processes made large scale projects like these happen
You can use desalination for drinking water, but growing food requires way too much water for it to be feasible.
In Israel, use of desalination made more effluent suitable for irrigation. Before that, the effluent contained too much salt.
This isn't desalinating specifically for irrigation, but it is a source of water for irrigation that wouldn't exist without desalination.
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-study-water-des...
Israel is not self-sufficient though; they import 80% of the grain they consume.
This isn't desalinating specifically for irrigation, but it is a source of water for irrigation that wouldn't exist without desalination.
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-study-water-des...
Israel is not self-sufficient though; they import 80% of the grain they consume.
there is a whole Wikipedia entry dedicated to the topic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_scarcity
It's not an existential problem for humanity, but it could be an existential problem for individual humans.
Settlement patterns grow up water availability. There's a reason India and eastern China are densely populated while the Sahara has virtually nobody. The U.S. Southwest (LA, Vegas, Phoenix, and smaller cities in SoCal/AZ/UT/NV/NM) urbanized when we developed the technology to dam & control the Colorado River.
In 100 years, it's likely they'll be thriving communities in the Sahara, Canadian Shield, Siberia, etc. to make up for the increasing inhabitability of Northern Europe, the U.S. South & Southwest, Indian subcontinent, Middle East, etc. But that's cold comfort for the people who already live in the affected regions, who will have to migrate, die, or spend most of their resources on water infrastructure.
Settlement patterns grow up water availability. There's a reason India and eastern China are densely populated while the Sahara has virtually nobody. The U.S. Southwest (LA, Vegas, Phoenix, and smaller cities in SoCal/AZ/UT/NV/NM) urbanized when we developed the technology to dam & control the Colorado River.
In 100 years, it's likely they'll be thriving communities in the Sahara, Canadian Shield, Siberia, etc. to make up for the increasing inhabitability of Northern Europe, the U.S. South & Southwest, Indian subcontinent, Middle East, etc. But that's cold comfort for the people who already live in the affected regions, who will have to migrate, die, or spend most of their resources on water infrastructure.
Literally billions of people rely on glacial meltwater which will eventually run out. Yes it is technologically feasible to provide the whole world with desalinated water, but it is also technologically feasible to provide the whole world with renewable energy and for some reason we haven't done that either.
Clean water in the right location can certainly be scarce. If a large population is close to the limit and unusual weather or some other event causes a shortage, I'm not sure how long a quick fix like trucking it in would be sustainable.
at .01 cents a gallon or less, yeah it's not scarce at all...
A worthwhile resource on the topic, Ohio State Ag Economists discuss (important to US ag industries for obvious reasons)…
https://ocj.com/2022/03/ukraine-russia-and-crop-production/
Agricultural economists as a discipline deal with these and other policy/trade issues all the time. At agricultural colleges and universities, they provide farmers with insights so the right crops are grown in the right time and place at the right level. No political or financial agenda worthy of note. If you’re in the US and care enough, you might want to contact your local land grant school and talk to an ag economist who specializes in grain production about these concerns, or sponsor an on-line forum with them for others who are interested.
If I remember correctly, most wheat in Ukraine/Russia is/has been planted in the fall/winter for summer harvest. But active regional conflict right next to your breadbasket generally sounds like a dumb and dangerous idea to pursue. You can’t harvest if your harvesting equipment is disabled. You can’t get the grain to market if your transportation systems are disrupted. Seems silly. Slavs may need to gen up some culturally appropriate recipes using maize and soybeans.
https://ocj.com/2022/03/ukraine-russia-and-crop-production/
Agricultural economists as a discipline deal with these and other policy/trade issues all the time. At agricultural colleges and universities, they provide farmers with insights so the right crops are grown in the right time and place at the right level. No political or financial agenda worthy of note. If you’re in the US and care enough, you might want to contact your local land grant school and talk to an ag economist who specializes in grain production about these concerns, or sponsor an on-line forum with them for others who are interested.
If I remember correctly, most wheat in Ukraine/Russia is/has been planted in the fall/winter for summer harvest. But active regional conflict right next to your breadbasket generally sounds like a dumb and dangerous idea to pursue. You can’t harvest if your harvesting equipment is disabled. You can’t get the grain to market if your transportation systems are disrupted. Seems silly. Slavs may need to gen up some culturally appropriate recipes using maize and soybeans.
Given the dire situation and prospects for the future, doubling of the wheat prices is completely rational. Some countries are now also imposing export bans. [1] That won't stop price increases but at least they'll still have wheat and will be able to use it. Another crisis to keep an eye on is the global fertilizer shortage [2]. Near future looks pretty bleak.
[1] https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/hungary-ban-grain-exports-...
[2] https://www.wthitv.com/news/global-nitrogen-fertilizer-short...
[1] https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/hungary-ban-grain-exports-...
[2] https://www.wthitv.com/news/global-nitrogen-fertilizer-short...
This page has a pricing page [1] without prices. How I hate such things.
[1] https://tradingeconomics.com/analytics/pricing.aspx
[1] https://tradingeconomics.com/analytics/pricing.aspx
You mean you don't like to contact Sales to "learn more"?!
How much of this is attributable to meme stock style momentum versus fundamentals?
Commodity speculators can push prices up for sure.
But they are also huge markets where most buyer/sellers actually intend to use the product. On top of that, global inflation was already pushing up price of most commodities (excess goods spending due to govt stimulus, among other things, such as substitution).
Oil is a much more dire situation, as demand is increasing faster than structural supply. Higher oil does push people towards renewables, but at large cost to the poor. Also acts as multiplier to pretty much all other goods production.
But they are also huge markets where most buyer/sellers actually intend to use the product. On top of that, global inflation was already pushing up price of most commodities (excess goods spending due to govt stimulus, among other things, such as substitution).
Oil is a much more dire situation, as demand is increasing faster than structural supply. Higher oil does push people towards renewables, but at large cost to the poor. Also acts as multiplier to pretty much all other goods production.
It's a number of factors coming together. The market over 2021 was very tight, with China importing a huge amount of wheat, some drought/weather issues, and probably more. Coming into this year, nitrogen fertilizer, potash and other agriculture inputs are very expensive, which partly traces back to energy costs (natural gas) and sanctions (Belarus/Russia). Adding the Ukraine war to this puts a huge percent of global exports at risk, with at least some people naming it as the biggest supply shock in a lifetime: https://twitter.com/ScottIrwinUI/status/1499137998386085889
It's not just the supply shock, but everyone expecting rough conditions this year before the war started. Primed with those conditions and a commodity where not having any means millions/billions of people starve, it's easy to see how supply concerns can set off some very sharp movements. Energy and food inflation like this has a history of setting off events like the Arab Spring; it's a very inelastic market and governments don't have the option of not paying.
I'm no commodities expert though.
Here's an article on effects in Egypt: https://mei.edu/publications/russia-ukraine-war-has-turned-e...
It's not just the supply shock, but everyone expecting rough conditions this year before the war started. Primed with those conditions and a commodity where not having any means millions/billions of people starve, it's easy to see how supply concerns can set off some very sharp movements. Energy and food inflation like this has a history of setting off events like the Arab Spring; it's a very inelastic market and governments don't have the option of not paying.
I'm no commodities expert though.
Here's an article on effects in Egypt: https://mei.edu/publications/russia-ukraine-war-has-turned-e...
It’s clearly a supply shock.
Probably zero.
The WSB-types generally do not touch futures contract because the margin requirements can be quite high (a single contract is generally tens of thousands of dollars).
Much of this is also fundamentals. ESG = energy stops growing and as the West continued down its self-destructive energy policies, an energy crisis was basically guaranteed. Recall that energy prices in Europe were at all time highs already. The US has largely been saved thanks to the previous POTUS who prioritized energy independence. Even if the current US Administration threw that away, they haven't been in power long enough to completely sabotage their own energy production.
Where it is now a supply crunch is in agriculture. You have one of the largest producers of wheat, fertilizer components, and a couple of other things; invading another of the largest producers of wheat, fertilizer components, and a couple of other things.
Add to this a backdrop of woke politics and cancel culture spreading into diplomacy and you have the West self-destructing itself over what would - in normal times - be a regional issue at best.
TL:DR we're in trouble. And that's before even talking about how the West has weaponized finance and now fundamentally changed the rules by which globalization worked. That's going to have some really nefarious effects a la 2008 GFC, but much worst.
The WSB-types generally do not touch futures contract because the margin requirements can be quite high (a single contract is generally tens of thousands of dollars).
Much of this is also fundamentals. ESG = energy stops growing and as the West continued down its self-destructive energy policies, an energy crisis was basically guaranteed. Recall that energy prices in Europe were at all time highs already. The US has largely been saved thanks to the previous POTUS who prioritized energy independence. Even if the current US Administration threw that away, they haven't been in power long enough to completely sabotage their own energy production.
Where it is now a supply crunch is in agriculture. You have one of the largest producers of wheat, fertilizer components, and a couple of other things; invading another of the largest producers of wheat, fertilizer components, and a couple of other things.
Add to this a backdrop of woke politics and cancel culture spreading into diplomacy and you have the West self-destructing itself over what would - in normal times - be a regional issue at best.
TL:DR we're in trouble. And that's before even talking about how the West has weaponized finance and now fundamentally changed the rules by which globalization worked. That's going to have some really nefarious effects a la 2008 GFC, but much worst.
Many of the Wall Street people are actually on WSB.
Luckily, I prefer rice to bread /s
Jokes aside, I honestly think that the modern Western diet would benefit a lot from some diversification on what cereals we eat. We eat way too much wheat nowadays. For instance, I like in Italy and we import most of our wheat, while we produce large amounts of rice, exporting more than 50% of it. People in Northern Italy have always eaten bread, but they ate way less pasta and way more rice and cornmeal in the past. Since the 1950s pasta has become incredibly ubiquitous and people have lost knowledge and the taste for rice dishes - lots of boomers I know don't even have rice in their homes.
Jokes aside, I honestly think that the modern Western diet would benefit a lot from some diversification on what cereals we eat. We eat way too much wheat nowadays. For instance, I like in Italy and we import most of our wheat, while we produce large amounts of rice, exporting more than 50% of it. People in Northern Italy have always eaten bread, but they ate way less pasta and way more rice and cornmeal in the past. Since the 1950s pasta has become incredibly ubiquitous and people have lost knowledge and the taste for rice dishes - lots of boomers I know don't even have rice in their homes.
This reminds me of “The Death of Grass”, a really interesting (and now scaring) post-apocalyptic science fiction novel (1959)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Death_of_Grass
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Death_of_Grass
plague. war. famine.
welcome to end of 'end of history.'
welcome to end of 'end of history.'
More like 'welcome to history'. There have always been periods of peace and prosperity, sometimes hundreds of years long. Those living through these have always thought they were the exception. They have always been wrong.
The OP I’m pretty sure is being sarcastic and referring to this obnoxious book by Francis Fukuyama:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/End_of_history
He had this absurd premise that because the Soviet Union collapsed and free trade was surging every place everywhere would coalesce to a boring democracy.
He had this absurd premise that because the Soviet Union collapsed and free trade was surging every place everywhere would coalesce to a boring democracy.
they did say "the end of 'end of history'" so maybe there is more to untangle than the postmodern idea of what Fukuyama was having his night-terrors about. I fear it's even more "meta" and also a reference to this old Churchill quote about war:
> "Now this is not the end of end of history. It is not even the beginning of the end of end of history. But it is, perhaps, the end of the end of the beginning."
> "Now this is not the end of end of history. It is not even the beginning of the end of end of history. But it is, perhaps, the end of the end of the beginning."
Exactly!
Covid-19 was the first one, it was literally “given a crown”.
The last one to be nuclear winter.
Covid-19 was the first one, it was literally “given a crown”.
The last one to be nuclear winter.
there is a lot of fear mongering about nuclear holocaust wrt NATO joining the war etc., but this is incredibly far fetched even in a worst case scenario[1]. I don't say the nuclear threat is nil, but it's also not as bad as war-hawks pondering escalation scenarios or the media makes it out to be.
What do you think would happen to Putins daughters in London, to the family members of oligarchs, to anyone who carries the smell (shame) of a past support of that regime. Even enemies of the West will think twice and have no choice supporting the force that is stronger. (whether that's good or bad or if they like it or not)
anyway nobody knows anything about any of this even the ones who are supposed to be experts in it. so certainly don't take my word for it but do question it when they make it clean cut.
[1] assume RU does launch nukes without sabotage on their systems before, and 1 or 2 cities will be lost to nuclear holocaust. There will be immediate containment of many of the missiles not fulfilling their objective. This is a lot messier than the academic idea of a neat escalation scenario that ends in total annihilation of the human race including a nuclear winter.
What do you think would happen to Putins daughters in London, to the family members of oligarchs, to anyone who carries the smell (shame) of a past support of that regime. Even enemies of the West will think twice and have no choice supporting the force that is stronger. (whether that's good or bad or if they like it or not)
anyway nobody knows anything about any of this even the ones who are supposed to be experts in it. so certainly don't take my word for it but do question it when they make it clean cut.
[1] assume RU does launch nukes without sabotage on their systems before, and 1 or 2 cities will be lost to nuclear holocaust. There will be immediate containment of many of the missiles not fulfilling their objective. This is a lot messier than the academic idea of a neat escalation scenario that ends in total annihilation of the human race including a nuclear winter.
>> What do you think would happen to Putins daughters in London,
I think he does not give a fig about anyone anymore
I think he does not give a fig about anyone anymore
I guess it's good I bought 5 pounds of wheat seeds earlier this year. Now to grow it, malt it, brew it.
Even if Putin was somehow deposed tomorrow and somehow the invasion ended, that curve is not coming back down any time soon.
Kind of like gas prices during/after invasion of Iraq? Despite local production availability, it was an opportunistic hike.
What's weird though is I noticed a price spike and then sudden unavailability of many wheat products just after New Years.
Kind of like gas prices during/after invasion of Iraq? Despite local production availability, it was an opportunistic hike.
What's weird though is I noticed a price spike and then sudden unavailability of many wheat products just after New Years.
> Even if Putin was somehow deposed tomorrow and somehow the invasion ended, that curve is not coming back down any time soon.
Why not? If everything normalized tomorrow, what would stop Russia and Ukraine from resuming wheat shipments?
Why not? If everything normalized tomorrow, what would stop Russia and Ukraine from resuming wheat shipments?
>> If everything normalized tomorrow, what would stop Russia and Ukraine from resuming wheat shipments?
The effects of war are not magically undone when the war ends.
If the war ended today, it would take Ukraine decades to recover. Pictures like these do not show the people whose lives have been shattered or lost:
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-invasion-before-and-after...
Similarly, the sanctions on Russia are only a symbol of the loss of trust and willingness to cooperate that many people throughout the world feel. How many years or decades will it take to build back that trust?
The effects of war are not magically undone when the war ends.
If the war ended today, it would take Ukraine decades to recover. Pictures like these do not show the people whose lives have been shattered or lost:
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-invasion-before-and-after...
Similarly, the sanctions on Russia are only a symbol of the loss of trust and willingness to cooperate that many people throughout the world feel. How many years or decades will it take to build back that trust?
Your picture is not of a destroyed wheat field, so what is your point?
Everything in the linked story claims that wheat shortages are due to short-term disruption, not productive capacity having been destroyed.
> How many years or decades will it take to build back that trust?
That’s irrelevant to the discussion. You don’t need to trust someone in order to buy wheat from them. The actual sanctions are what matter, not whatever they “symbolize”. And there’s no reason to believe the sanctions would last for years or decades if Putin were deposed and Russia’s aggressive actions stopped.
Everything in the linked story claims that wheat shortages are due to short-term disruption, not productive capacity having been destroyed.
> How many years or decades will it take to build back that trust?
That’s irrelevant to the discussion. You don’t need to trust someone in order to buy wheat from them. The actual sanctions are what matter, not whatever they “symbolize”. And there’s no reason to believe the sanctions would last for years or decades if Putin were deposed and Russia’s aggressive actions stopped.
>> Your picture is not of a destroyed wheat field, so what is your point?
Everything in the linked story claims that wheat shortages are due to short-term disruption, not productive capacity having been destroyed.
Wheat fields don't harvest themselves. Wheat can't drive itself to ports and load itself on ships. It requires people and infrastructure. The war has disrupted those people and the country's infrastructure. It does not magically return when the war ends.
>> You don’t need to trust someone in order to buy wheat from them.
Yes, but when given the choice many people choose not to do business with murderous criminal thugs. If someone killed your family members or friends would you buy grain from them? Or would you pay more and buy grain from someone else?
>> And there’s no reason to believe the sanctions would last for years or decades if Putin were deposed and Russia’s aggressive actions stopped.
Who knows? That has not happened yet.
Wheat fields don't harvest themselves. Wheat can't drive itself to ports and load itself on ships. It requires people and infrastructure. The war has disrupted those people and the country's infrastructure. It does not magically return when the war ends.
>> You don’t need to trust someone in order to buy wheat from them.
Yes, but when given the choice many people choose not to do business with murderous criminal thugs. If someone killed your family members or friends would you buy grain from them? Or would you pay more and buy grain from someone else?
>> And there’s no reason to believe the sanctions would last for years or decades if Putin were deposed and Russia’s aggressive actions stopped.
Who knows? That has not happened yet.
wheat does not need trust, it is not a fiat currency.
>> wheat does not need trust, it is not a fiat currency.
As I said above, when given the choice many people choose not to do business with murderous criminal thugs.
If someone killed your family members or friends would you buy grain from them? Or would you pay more and buy grain from someone else?
As I said above, when given the choice many people choose not to do business with murderous criminal thugs.
If someone killed your family members or friends would you buy grain from them? Or would you pay more and buy grain from someone else?
Technically, nothing. If you ended up with a 100% pro-Ukranian Russian government, they could immediately cease fire, and begin talks with the entire world on resuming commerce.
They may have to invent a new currency, but this would be what, the fourth Russian currency in modern times? Nothing new.
They may have to invent a new currency, but this would be what, the fourth Russian currency in modern times? Nothing new.
An interesting plan. What if Russians don't agree?
I see no reason why the Russian people won't agree, they almost universally despise Putin, especially after just sending a bunch of kids to die on the front lines with no supplies or plan.
The only people who worship Putin are a vocal, dangerous, and violent minority that are about to find themselves persona non grata in their own homeland.
The only people who worship Putin are a vocal, dangerous, and violent minority that are about to find themselves persona non grata in their own homeland.
[deleted]
Who is to say Putin isn’t deposed by somebody even more ruthless than himself?
We are talking about the hypothesis that the invasion ends and relations are normalized.
Right after a news story about Putin getting deposed will be a news story about the Baltics being invaded. So, careful about what you wish for.
Wheat is not the only problem, fertilizer prices are also disrupted and it might get worse.
Next to the deaths in Ukraine, we might thank Putin for 100 million plus deaths by famine within the 3 years.
Next to the deaths in Ukraine, we might thank Putin for 100 million plus deaths by famine within the 3 years.
We could simply not sanction agriculture-related exports. That would be moral, IMO.
We are well past sanction stories and moved into national security by banning export: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/exports-of-fertilizers
The only real solution i see is to stop feeding the animals with stuff humans could eat and make a point of global solidarity. I say this as a avid meat eater, but I'm not holding my breath.
The only real solution i see is to stop feeding the animals with stuff humans could eat and make a point of global solidarity. I say this as a avid meat eater, but I'm not holding my breath.
Why is the media here in the US not reporting on the fact that grain prices are going to quadruple if sanctions on agricultural products and inputs are not lifted?
Do they want to see the whole world destabilized by a famine?
This is ridiculous.
Do they want to see the whole world destabilized by a famine?
This is ridiculous.
The restrictions aren't necessarily on the import side. Even if they are, it's irrelevant since Putin has placed restrictions on the export side.
We need to open up negotiations on this point immediately. Arab Spring x 10k is about to hit the entire world, and the result will be 10k times as nasty.
Chickens eat kitchen waste and produce eggs and meat.
It's not the sanctions directly. Putin is retaliating by instructing that fertilizer not be exported to the west.
We need to start negotiating on that right now. We need to open up negotiations on this point immediately. Arab Spring x 10k is about to hit the entire world, and the result will be 10k times as nasty.
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/futures/W00/advanced-...
Filter to 'All'
Those tops between 2010 and 2013 is the 'Arab Spring'.
Now you know what is coming.
I mentioned that eight days ago, it was a sure thing ten days ago. The moment they crossed the border.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30457490&goto=item%3Fid...
Oh, and it was talked about for months. It's that Ukraine Breadbasket thing.
We Germans had a tour back then, just for that. It's not widely known, but we sometimes even stole the pure soil literally, Chernozem.
History and geostrategics, quite interesting.
Uh, by the way, the Ukrainians had a land reform last year.
As a primer:
https://www.oaklandinstitute.org/blog/who-really-benefits-cr...
----------------------------------------------------------
And now to something completely different, the Serbians and the Balkan...
Filter to 'All'
Those tops between 2010 and 2013 is the 'Arab Spring'.
Now you know what is coming.
I mentioned that eight days ago, it was a sure thing ten days ago. The moment they crossed the border.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30457490&goto=item%3Fid...
Oh, and it was talked about for months. It's that Ukraine Breadbasket thing.
We Germans had a tour back then, just for that. It's not widely known, but we sometimes even stole the pure soil literally, Chernozem.
History and geostrategics, quite interesting.
Uh, by the way, the Ukrainians had a land reform last year.
As a primer:
https://www.oaklandinstitute.org/blog/who-really-benefits-cr...
----------------------------------------------------------
And now to something completely different, the Serbians and the Balkan...
What about the Balkans? We don't need another war, thanks.
I don't know for sure who is funding all these "nationalistic" organisations around these parts but I do know nationalism is more often than not used as a tool to divide people, not unite them.
These people seem to "care" and "love" their countries to the extent of beating and harassing brown people. Sorry, got carried away
I don't know for sure who is funding all these "nationalistic" organisations around these parts but I do know nationalism is more often than not used as a tool to divide people, not unite them.
These people seem to "care" and "love" their countries to the extent of beating and harassing brown people. Sorry, got carried away
>We don't need another war, thanks.
Some people think it's the best. At the moment the strongest proponents of this line of thought sit in the Kreml. It's just a question of who it's best for. And they don't care if you want it or not.
The Republika Srpska cultivates close ties to their Russian brother, nurtures strong ethnic/nationalist ambitions and is a possible attack vector for Russian PsyOps to stirr things up. Don't you think a possible Civil War or some such in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina would come in handy? For Russia and the Republika Srpska?
Oh, and please don't shoot the messenger, I'm just looking for an exit.
By, the way that Balkan thing is much older. In 1888 Bismarck is quoted as saying "One day the great European War will come out of some damned foolish thing in the Balkans."
He was right.
Some people think it's the best. At the moment the strongest proponents of this line of thought sit in the Kreml. It's just a question of who it's best for. And they don't care if you want it or not.
The Republika Srpska cultivates close ties to their Russian brother, nurtures strong ethnic/nationalist ambitions and is a possible attack vector for Russian PsyOps to stirr things up. Don't you think a possible Civil War or some such in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina would come in handy? For Russia and the Republika Srpska?
Oh, and please don't shoot the messenger, I'm just looking for an exit.
By, the way that Balkan thing is much older. In 1888 Bismarck is quoted as saying "One day the great European War will come out of some damned foolish thing in the Balkans."
He was right.
Highly unlikely that they can stir up anything that far away. Another fact working against this theory is that B&H has EUFOR and NATO bases and is surrounded by mostly NATO members.
I think the recent situation around Ukraine actually diminishes the possibility of turmoil in B&H because Western powers are now more eager to use the Office of the High Representative to remove from power anyone who works against peace in B&H.
I think the recent situation around Ukraine actually diminishes the possibility of turmoil in B&H because Western powers are now more eager to use the Office of the High Representative to remove from power anyone who works against peace in B&H.
The Russian have been preparing for years, so what kind of highly unlikely?
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-115shrg28945/html/C...
https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep18769?seq=4#metadata_info...
https://www.fpri.org/article/2018/03/bosnia-russian-chopping...
https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/the-fragile-stat...
https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/Balkans/War-in-Ukra...
https://balkaninsight.com/2022/03/01/serbian-far-right-group...
https://balkaninsight.com/2021/11/23/experts-urge-improved-a...
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-115shrg28945/html/C...
https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep18769?seq=4#metadata_info...
https://www.fpri.org/article/2018/03/bosnia-russian-chopping...
https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/the-fragile-stat...
https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/Balkans/War-in-Ukra...
https://balkaninsight.com/2022/03/01/serbian-far-right-group...
https://balkaninsight.com/2021/11/23/experts-urge-improved-a...
I think James Ker-Lindsay did a good analysis on the subject:
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9IteoUSEqU
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsUW-GZSPbA
In short, Russia and the current Republika Srpska leadership has incentives to keep the situation simmering but they don't have the means to heat the situation to the point of boiling.
The OHR can at any time remove from power any politician who would try that. NATO and EUFOR forces stationed in the country could easily quell any conflict. Even without relying Bosnia's internal security forces and neighbours that also have an interest in peace in B&H.
In short, Russia and the current Republika Srpska leadership has incentives to keep the situation simmering but they don't have the means to heat the situation to the point of boiling.
The OHR can at any time remove from power any politician who would try that. NATO and EUFOR forces stationed in the country could easily quell any conflict. Even without relying Bosnia's internal security forces and neighbours that also have an interest in peace in B&H.
You are probably right.
Considering the piss poor performance of the Russian military, supporting the Russian Blood Brothers on the front line is probably a sacred duty for nationalistic Serbian extremists.
Apparently, the Russians even need external experts for their war crimes, as they recruit war-experienced Syrians as mercenaries. I assume that the Serbian experts in this field will work for Mother Russia for free. This will probably relieve B&H from that pest, temporarily. Until those fighters return. Of course, If they do. Wouldn't mind to see them die there.
Apparently, the Russians even need external experts for their war crimes, as they recruit war-experienced Syrians as mercenaries. I assume that the Serbian experts in this field will work for Mother Russia for free. This will probably relieve B&H from that pest, temporarily. Until those fighters return. Of course, If they do. Wouldn't mind to see them die there.
I don't know how solid this piece (or the team behind it) is https://bywire.news/articles/millions-of-russian-roubles-fun...
But it hints at that there is potential for groups and/or nations (I assume Russia wouldn't be the only one) to mess up peoples minds.
Not long ago a journalist ended up in the "internet communication team" of a french presidential candidate (Zemmour) and saw how much shitty tricks they're trying to influence people (editing wikipedia, flooding articles online to give a better image)
But it hints at that there is potential for groups and/or nations (I assume Russia wouldn't be the only one) to mess up peoples minds.
Not long ago a journalist ended up in the "internet communication team" of a french presidential candidate (Zemmour) and saw how much shitty tricks they're trying to influence people (editing wikipedia, flooding articles online to give a better image)
There are reports something's brewing in Serbia/Kosovo, more than usual. Same in Moldova/Transnistria - the latter in particular could provide a western angle of attack on Ukraine.
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wont take much for this to fall again.increase prices means increased supply
> wont take much for this to fall again
Yes it will, as crops have a growing season. If it gets missed there is simply less wheat for everyone in the world for roughly a full year until the following growing season.
Yes it will, as crops have a growing season. If it gets missed there is simply less wheat for everyone in the world for roughly a full year until the following growing season.
Ukraine is one of the world’s bread baskets and produces roughly 12% of supply. If they miss the planting season because of war it’s going to have a long lasting effect, and you can’t plant again until next spring.
they have to plant within the next 30-60 days. the planting window is fast approaching. i think they will miss it.
If futures markets do their job, and incentivize other growers to expand their production ahead of planting season, it might partially resolve itself. Not my area of expertise though. Are their North American farmers holding out waiting for better prices?
Yeah that's not how commodities with fixed production cycles work in the short term.
Why hasn't supply increased already?
So we need to make up 30% of grain in the world. Surely 30 countries can produce 1% more grain than they usually do to make up the deficit.
That's not how math works. They wouldn't need to produce 1% more 30 countires would need to produce 1% of world production in addition to their current produce. In other words the countries producing the other 70% each would need to 42+% more to make up the missing 30%.
Percent math doesn't work that way. Every country should produce an additional 1% of the whole world total. Very different from 1% of what they usually do, which is a fragment of the total.
They'd need to produce 1% more grain as compared to the world's output, not their own output. This could be a significant increase.
The problem is that Russia and Ukraine make up significant amounts of nitrogen fertilizer production.
In the southern USA there's more winter wheat in the fields than I've seen in the 30 years I've lived here. It looks really happy so far too. They'll be bringing that in starting in another 3mo or so.