China markets in turmoil as Russia ties add to list of risks(bloombergquint.com)
bloombergquint.com
China markets in turmoil as Russia ties add to list of risks
https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/china-s-markets-in-crisis-as-russia-ties-add-to-list-of-risks
108 comments
Friendly reminder that "X market [up/down] as investors digest Y" is the cheapest and least useful form of reporting known to mankind.
Same with "tweeter is blowing up" - "tweeter is upset" - "spytok users say".
Dave Chappelle famous words explain pretty well why we really should stop caring about twittokbooktagram.
> is the cheapest and least useful form of reporting known to mankind
Maybe not the most useful form of reporting.. but the least useful form known to mankind? After reading the article I think there's more to the analysis than just that.
Maybe not the most useful form of reporting.. but the least useful form known to mankind? After reading the article I think there's more to the analysis than just that.
My dad calls it the Financial deus-ex-machina. Every single financial newspaper does it. To be fair, they gotta report what happened with the market so the headline has to capture something in addition to simply "DOW down 300 points". It is not useless, quite the contrary - you get an idea about facts + some context in less than a second of reading the headline. That's efficiency! No one is going to make correlation-is-not-causation arguments off of a morning headline. But it is funny:
“DOW down 300 points as investors worry about Russian aggression”
Next day:
“DOW up 300 points as investors re-assess the Russian aggression”
The financial world cracks me up. Dial in any earnings call to play the headwinds, tailwinds, double-down, as we continue to, can you add color to that?, etc bingo.
“DOW down 300 points as investors worry about Russian aggression”
Next day:
“DOW up 300 points as investors re-assess the Russian aggression”
The financial world cracks me up. Dial in any earnings call to play the headwinds, tailwinds, double-down, as we continue to, can you add color to that?, etc bingo.
I've seen it done even in the same day.
Morning: DOW down 300 points because of Fed decision
Evening: DOW up 300 points because of (same) Fed decision
Context: most financial analysts at places like Bloomberg are literally some of the lowest paid employees. Most of them never traded any financial market in their entire life, which is quite short since they tend to be in their 20s.
Morning: DOW down 300 points because of Fed decision
Evening: DOW up 300 points because of (same) Fed decision
Context: most financial analysts at places like Bloomberg are literally some of the lowest paid employees. Most of them never traded any financial market in their entire life, which is quite short since they tend to be in their 20s.
Frontpage headlines are not written by interns. Those are analysts and developers you're talking about.
I take the contrarian stance - these headlines are for people that are busy on Wall Street. They just need to know quickly what+context, not what+how. what+how is the holygrail and no one is stupid enough to even complain about these headlines in the Financial world. It is a tidbit that is extremely useful.
I take the contrarian stance - these headlines are for people that are busy on Wall Street. They just need to know quickly what+context, not what+how. what+how is the holygrail and no one is stupid enough to even complain about these headlines in the Financial world. It is a tidbit that is extremely useful.
There are plenty of stories from famous financial people who were initially hired as analysts at various banks/news agencies which go like this: so on my first day I was told "from today you cover Apple/Euro/gold market. But I don't know much about that. Doesn't matter, just give your best." And I'm not talking about the 80s, but even people doing this after 2007.
You are right about what+context, buy you don't really need analysts for that, to tell you what market moved and what economic event happened before that.
You are right about what+context, buy you don't really need analysts for that, to tell you what market moved and what economic event happened before that.
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I suspect those articles are written by “AI” / some script doing a find-replace.
I did that on a solo fintech project 8 years ago
Don’t need AI, just string concatenation and an array of sentence types to randomly choose from when the article cron job starts
Used bing’s API to search for certain macro market events and used stocktwits api to see which stocks moved the most and would make headlines and aggregate articles about those
which it would post to twitter
which would drive people to the no-login no-password app and subscription service (used ids based on in-app subscription ID or something else if using a browser)
which was all populated with algorithmic trades lol
turned it off because I didn't like updating all the APIs and compute instances as the services they relied on kept changing, but yeah self advertising self operating money printer
Don’t need AI, just string concatenation and an array of sentence types to randomly choose from when the article cron job starts
Used bing’s API to search for certain macro market events and used stocktwits api to see which stocks moved the most and would make headlines and aggregate articles about those
which it would post to twitter
which would drive people to the no-login no-password app and subscription service (used ids based on in-app subscription ID or something else if using a browser)
which was all populated with algorithmic trades lol
turned it off because I didn't like updating all the APIs and compute instances as the services they relied on kept changing, but yeah self advertising self operating money printer
These are pretty much all automated.
They take market movements and append the most relevant piece of news to that movement. If you track any stock closely you'll find your daily Motleyfool article "Why is XYZ stock is moving because of [most recent relevant news for that company]"
The article is usually one paragraph stating the stock movement and a summary of the most recent news. You can get the same summary for different movements due to the automation here.
They take market movements and append the most relevant piece of news to that movement. If you track any stock closely you'll find your daily Motleyfool article "Why is XYZ stock is moving because of [most recent relevant news for that company]"
The article is usually one paragraph stating the stock movement and a summary of the most recent news. You can get the same summary for different movements due to the automation here.
But they don't "have to" report it. It's become standard because it's free, guaranteed content. Finance and sports both follow the same model. Every trading day (or game, for sports) is guaranteed to have an article: Up or Down; Win, Loss or Tie. The content is filler as the articles' inclusion is justified regardless.
Apple’s stock app is awesome in that matter. “Why NASDAQ:_____ ticker is bound to go down in the next months” – the day after it gains 20% and doubles within the year…
Fog of war.
I don't think this article is right on the cause. China's biggest problem is, imo, the continued slow motion train wreck of evergrande and its real estate market collapsing. So much of China's growth was money sloshing around due to things getting built. But that seems to be harshly falling. There's hundreds of billions of debt hovering around default and the best these companies can do seems to be to double down on building and selling more buildings, which I sort of expect people don't particularly want to buy. General supply chain issues and covid affect this too. Food availability due to lower exports of wheat from russia and ukraine could cause an issue too.
could someone explain in a few sentences why it takes so long for Evergrande to collapse?
They're carefully trying to change ownership of the hot potatoes so that as many of them are in foreign hands as possible.
If Evergrande defaults, foreign bondholders will claim their collateral.
So instead, for example, they have state-owned companies buying up Evergrande's assets, then Evergrande using that money to pay back local creditors, so that Evergrande is eventually left owning neither money nor assets to pay back foreign bondholders. Nothing left to seize in court.
Meanwhile, they are trying not to create a shock in real-estate prices that would undermine the other overleveraged developers, such as would occur if Evergrande unloaded all of their assets at once. Each developer is balancing their debt-to-asset ratio, so if their real estate assets drop in paper value, they end up in Evergrande's position.
Foreign bondholders appear to be playing along with this, which is fascinating; it suggests that either those bondholders are, too, looking to offload their hot potatoes and want to preserve the appearance that they're still worth something as they search for buyers, or else they're using those bonds as collateral for their own loans. As long as credit rating agencies play along and don't drop the credit rating to full default, they may be able to do so.
If Evergrande defaults, foreign bondholders will claim their collateral.
So instead, for example, they have state-owned companies buying up Evergrande's assets, then Evergrande using that money to pay back local creditors, so that Evergrande is eventually left owning neither money nor assets to pay back foreign bondholders. Nothing left to seize in court.
Meanwhile, they are trying not to create a shock in real-estate prices that would undermine the other overleveraged developers, such as would occur if Evergrande unloaded all of their assets at once. Each developer is balancing their debt-to-asset ratio, so if their real estate assets drop in paper value, they end up in Evergrande's position.
Foreign bondholders appear to be playing along with this, which is fascinating; it suggests that either those bondholders are, too, looking to offload their hot potatoes and want to preserve the appearance that they're still worth something as they search for buyers, or else they're using those bonds as collateral for their own loans. As long as credit rating agencies play along and don't drop the credit rating to full default, they may be able to do so.
Evergrande (real estate in general) is undergoing intentional, controlled unwinding initiated by CCP kicked off by "three red lines". It was never going to collapse, the entire point of Evergrande was to avoid an Lehman moment by preempting it.
That was the intention, yes. It remains to be seen if it can be pulled off.
Too big to fail combined with an autocratic government ostensibly built upon stability. Who dares push it into bankruptcy and risk the certain wrath of that government?
To be fair the same happened to Freddie Mae and Fannie Mac, which were bailed out at the start of the 2008 financial crisis. Eventually they repaid their bail-out money and then some, but back then (2008-2009) that was not seen as a possibility.
At a more general level, I'd say it's very tough to let companies like Evergrande/Freddie Mae&Fannie Mac go down the drain because you risk the whole system going down, no matter if you're a de facto autocracy (like China) or a not so perfect democracy, like the US.
At a more general level, I'd say it's very tough to let companies like Evergrande/Freddie Mae&Fannie Mac go down the drain because you risk the whole system going down, no matter if you're a de facto autocracy (like China) or a not so perfect democracy, like the US.
If these companies have been accurately summarized in the media, I would consider these very different. The mortgage companies were holding loans on a lot of individual houses, etc with concrete utility that were in actual use, where replacement stock was unavailable.
In Evergrande's case they seem to have giant projects that are earmarked as investment speculation as opposed to intended primary dwellings or immediately rentable. It is entirely possible that whole districts of buildings are never of enough utility to draw residents at any price above maintenance.
A company can go broke with either mistake but if a government knows the need for the collateral mortgaged actually exists then bounds from the macroeconomic situation apply so their shoveling of money will have an end.
In Evergrande's case they seem to have giant projects that are earmarked as investment speculation as opposed to intended primary dwellings or immediately rentable. It is entirely possible that whole districts of buildings are never of enough utility to draw residents at any price above maintenance.
A company can go broke with either mistake but if a government knows the need for the collateral mortgaged actually exists then bounds from the macroeconomic situation apply so their shoveling of money will have an end.
A large source of CCP elite's wealth comes from Evergrande, Sunac, Country Garden.
A large chunk of Chinese savings is tied to it. If they allowed people to sell or liquidate their shares, it would cause real instability.
A large chunk of Chinese savings is tied to it. If they allowed people to sell or liquidate their shares, it would cause real instability.
Can China just not let Evergrande fail? I'm assuming the debt is largely held in China, the buildings are in China, and debt holders who expected to be able to get their money back are going to be disappointed but in an authoritarian government can you just force people to take the loss without letting that loss transmit to the larger economy?
A lot of it is tied in with local government. The central Chinese government inadequately funds local governments. The local governments close the funding gap by selling/leasing land to developers (often kicking citizens off their land without proper compensation). Chinese citizens buy the properties due to a number of cultural and financial factors. There is not much else to invest in. Savings interest rates are very low. Chinese citizens often distrust the local stock market due to corruption issues and shared memory of previous crashes. Ordinary Chinese citizens are not permitted to invest overseas. Local property is the only reasonable investment to many. Many of these properties are never even lived in. However Chinese citizens are going to stop buying eventually as property prices are already well into greater fool territory. When that happens, local government will be in trouble.
It's not just evergrande, it's all property developers pretty much. It's a real estate bubble popping when an immense portion of wealth and growth is in real estate.
Yes, much higher portion of wealth is in real estate in China than other countries, this is key to understanding the problem. Real estate is basically a savings account for many people.
YEAH! Those chinese amateurs should do what we do in the USA ; just print more money and bail them out, and let their competitors acquire the company for pennies on the dollar after our government employees have had the opportunity to let all the people in their family know that trillions in bailouts is n the way -- oh yeah, and dont forget to setup an LLC in your spouses name to slurp off such bailout funds as well.
(This seriously happened BTW, if you dont recall)
(This seriously happened BTW, if you dont recall)
Yes, their entire real estate market has been in slow motion collapse for the better part of a year. Too many articles on the state of the economy are using the Russia crisis to drive their news cycle, when actually most of the turmoil was already happening.
> China's biggest problem is, imo, the continued slow motion train wreck of evergrande and its real estate market collapsing.
It's at least an order of magnitude larger of a problem for China than ties to Russia are.
For anyone unaware, nearly 2/3 of China's household wealth is tied up in real-estate assets (for the US it's < 30% of household assets in real-estate). That's a doubling over what it was a decade ago. China's socio-political stability is particularly bound to the condition of their real-estate market. A crash there would be devastating; if housing were to fall enough to revert back to that asset class being 1/3 of China's household asset base, maybe $30 trillion in national 'wealth' would have to vanish.
It's at least an order of magnitude larger of a problem for China than ties to Russia are.
For anyone unaware, nearly 2/3 of China's household wealth is tied up in real-estate assets (for the US it's < 30% of household assets in real-estate). That's a doubling over what it was a decade ago. China's socio-political stability is particularly bound to the condition of their real-estate market. A crash there would be devastating; if housing were to fall enough to revert back to that asset class being 1/3 of China's household asset base, maybe $30 trillion in national 'wealth' would have to vanish.
Well, that's to be concluded.
An additional stress on the system could make the problem exponentially worse.
An additional stress on the system could make the problem exponentially worse.
> Food availability due to lower exports of wheat from russia and ukraine could cause an issue too.
Why is this an issue for China anymore than the West?
In fact, China has the majority of the world's grain stash. https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/China-hoards-ove...
Why is this an issue for China anymore than the West?
In fact, China has the majority of the world's grain stash. https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/China-hoards-ove...
Chinese food security is generally lower than that of the west
https://impact.economist.com/sustainability/project/food-sec...
The US ranks 9th whereas china ranks 34th. They're not going to famine or anything but food prices, or really just inflation more broadly, could be an issue. The reason china stockpiles grain is because it doesn't produce enough for itself.
https://impact.economist.com/sustainability/project/food-sec...
The US ranks 9th whereas china ranks 34th. They're not going to famine or anything but food prices, or really just inflation more broadly, could be an issue. The reason china stockpiles grain is because it doesn't produce enough for itself.
Where did the comment say that its more of a problem for China than the west?
"China's biggest problem is.... food availability due to lower exports of wheat from russia and ukraine could cause an issue too."
The same logical structured can be applied to not China:
"X country's biggest problem is ... food availability due to lower exports of wheat from russia and ukraine could cause an issue too."
The same logical structured can be applied to not China:
"X country's biggest problem is ... food availability due to lower exports of wheat from russia and ukraine could cause an issue too."
Sure. Does every sentence in a discussion of X really require a disclaimer that the thing mentioned is not necessarily unique to X and can also be the case for not-X?
Sure. Does saying "China has a border." add value then? It's not necessarily unique to China and can also be the case for not-China?
Depends if it's relevant to the topic at hand or not.
Because China is not food independent. Most of western countries are.
Based on what ranking ?
Calories/per resident? There's many ways in which that is flawed.
Calories/per resident? There's many ways in which that is flawed.
Western countries have the best food security in the world:
https://impact.economist.com/sustainability/project/food-sec...
https://impact.economist.com/sustainability/project/food-sec...
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Don’t forget the big problem China will eventually have to deal with: their single child policy is coming to a head with their aging workforce.
When the chickens come home to roost, they’re going to have to figure out who is going to replace the retired population, and nobody’s in a rush to immigrate to China.
When the chickens come home to roost, they’re going to have to figure out who is going to replace the retired population, and nobody’s in a rush to immigrate to China.
Indeed. There's a large telegram group of engineers fleeing out of Russia.
Almost all want to flee/relocate Europe/US/Canada.
Turkey, Georgia, ... Come in after.
I literally saw 0 requests for China.
Almost all want to flee/relocate Europe/US/Canada.
Turkey, Georgia, ... Come in after.
I literally saw 0 requests for China.
It's simple. 90% of people feeing know English to at least some extent, but almost no one know Chinese.
Also regardless of what Russian regime propoganda trying to sell we all grown on western culture and want to live in western world. People who wanted to live in Asia moved to Thailand / Vietnam / Bali long ago.
Also regardless of what Russian regime propoganda trying to sell we all grown on western culture and want to live in western world. People who wanted to live in Asia moved to Thailand / Vietnam / Bali long ago.
Those of you who seem to think a nation has to grow populations indefinitely or fail, what is the long term end game in your mind? Hope that your nation wins the inevitable global resource war?
There are quite a lot of people who try to immigrate to China. If China opened up, they wouldn't have a shortage of immigrants. There are immigrant communities from all over already there.
China is dealing with their one child policy, they have put the cap at 3 children iirc currently, and are also making policies against things like abortion and divorce. Which may not be the correct move, but I do see more laws incentivizing children coming.
China is dealing with their one child policy, they have put the cap at 3 children iirc currently, and are also making policies against things like abortion and divorce. Which may not be the correct move, but I do see more laws incentivizing children coming.
There are 1.4 billion people in China, and ~1 million immigrants pre pandemic. The number of new migrants required would be astronomical in a country already struggling with food and energy insecurity.
It takes 20 years to make a 20 year old consumer while the rest of the population ages 20 years.
Seems a bit optimistic and wishy washy to say the least.
It takes 20 years to make a 20 year old consumer while the rest of the population ages 20 years.
Seems a bit optimistic and wishy washy to say the least.
China struggling with food insecurities? IIRC China have taken over the Netherlands as the world's largest producer
> The number of new migrants required would be astronomical in a country already struggling with food and energy insecurity.
Interesting. You could be referring to several European countries, including the UK.
Also interesting: the Plague was largely responsible for the ending of serfdom, by greatly increasing the bargaining-power of peasants. I have wondered whether COVID might eventually precipitate similar tectonic social changes.
Interesting. You could be referring to several European countries, including the UK.
Also interesting: the Plague was largely responsible for the ending of serfdom, by greatly increasing the bargaining-power of peasants. I have wondered whether COVID might eventually precipitate similar tectonic social changes.
The UK doesn’t suffer from either of food or energy insecurity and only has 68 million people with decent demographics.
There are more people over the age of 65 in China than the total population of the UK and France combined.
There are more people over the age of 65 in China than the total population of the UK and France combined.
> There are quite a lot of people who try to immigrate to China.
Do you have a source i can read about that? I'd be interested to know more about this.
Do you have a source i can read about that? I'd be interested to know more about this.
>replace the retired population
Why replace anyone? The alternative is to ramp down to a lower population baseline and deal with the transition. 800M Chinese by 2100 is still plenty. Reality is right now there's 100s of million undereducated/undertrained Chinese who can't be integrated into modern economy - they're net drains. And even current system is struggling to employ millions of STEM graduates. PRC doesn't need immigration, just clamp down on top level brain drain and setup foreign worker program to take care of the aging - plenty of cheap ASEAN labour. Bonus side effect of less people = more self sufficiency and freedom to conduct assertive foreign policy. There's few upsides to maintaining and trying to increase living standards of 1.4B people with PRC resources.
Why replace anyone? The alternative is to ramp down to a lower population baseline and deal with the transition. 800M Chinese by 2100 is still plenty. Reality is right now there's 100s of million undereducated/undertrained Chinese who can't be integrated into modern economy - they're net drains. And even current system is struggling to employ millions of STEM graduates. PRC doesn't need immigration, just clamp down on top level brain drain and setup foreign worker program to take care of the aging - plenty of cheap ASEAN labour. Bonus side effect of less people = more self sufficiency and freedom to conduct assertive foreign policy. There's few upsides to maintaining and trying to increase living standards of 1.4B people with PRC resources.
That's the correct answer. I never cease to be astounded that so many people don't seem to grasp that you can increase output per capita, productivity per capita, as the population contracts.
The focus should be on improving the quality of life of the people, not on expanding the economy in absolute terms.
China would be better off with 1/2 the people at the same GDP (ie ~700m people at ~$24,000 per capita GDP).
Population contraction is desirable in many cases, so long as you can continue to increase productivity per capita. China has a long ways to go yet in terms of potential to raise their per capita economic output, if they're willing to pair that with a contracting population. And the lightening (from depopulation) on their resource needs is a huge help, it makes their situation so much easier.
The focus should be on improving the quality of life of the people, not on expanding the economy in absolute terms.
China would be better off with 1/2 the people at the same GDP (ie ~700m people at ~$24,000 per capita GDP).
Population contraction is desirable in many cases, so long as you can continue to increase productivity per capita. China has a long ways to go yet in terms of potential to raise their per capita economic output, if they're willing to pair that with a contracting population. And the lightening (from depopulation) on their resource needs is a huge help, it makes their situation so much easier.
As the population ages, will older people be able to retire? In that case their productivity transforms to a negative, needing to be supported by the remaining workers.
China's output per capita is so mediocre (~$12k GDP per capita) there is a lot of room to outrun the worker contraction and retirement context. Although I'm skeptical their increasingly rigid economy, courtesy of Xi transporting them back in time to a worse system of stricter command & control (vs a more liberalized approach), will be capable of it.
Their productivity doesn't transform into a negative. To deal with more aged persons, they need to bolster output and taxation on that output, such that society builds a social safety net for the retired. China has room for increased taxation on various aspects of wealth and income in their nation (their wealth has ballooned massively in the last 10-20 years obviously), along with higher personal income tax rates in general.
Increasing productivity and automation frees labor to be devoted to other things that society needs. For example their farming system is very ineffecient, they have far too many people working in farming producing far too little (compare it to the US, South Korea or Japan). If you bring that up to where it should be, some of that labor becomes available to take care of the elderly, paid for via taxes. Now apply that to everything else in China that still needs modernized, made more efficient, automated.
Their productivity doesn't transform into a negative. To deal with more aged persons, they need to bolster output and taxation on that output, such that society builds a social safety net for the retired. China has room for increased taxation on various aspects of wealth and income in their nation (their wealth has ballooned massively in the last 10-20 years obviously), along with higher personal income tax rates in general.
Increasing productivity and automation frees labor to be devoted to other things that society needs. For example their farming system is very ineffecient, they have far too many people working in farming producing far too little (compare it to the US, South Korea or Japan). If you bring that up to where it should be, some of that labor becomes available to take care of the elderly, paid for via taxes. Now apply that to everything else in China that still needs modernized, made more efficient, automated.
This very much depends on the ratio of retirees to workers.
Also automation may not play out so well for Chinese production, as it's more sensible for other nations to bring automated manufacturing onshore for a combination of reasons including reduced transport, supply chain certainty, stabler internal economics. Onshoring automated manufacturing could still use a significant amount of international remote labour, but the hosting country would capture more of the taxation from the manufacturing, which you mention as going to pay for the Chinese retirees.
Also automation may not play out so well for Chinese production, as it's more sensible for other nations to bring automated manufacturing onshore for a combination of reasons including reduced transport, supply chain certainty, stabler internal economics. Onshoring automated manufacturing could still use a significant amount of international remote labour, but the hosting country would capture more of the taxation from the manufacturing, which you mention as going to pay for the Chinese retirees.
Considering that Europe/Japan haven't completely collapsed it is a solvable problem. Increasing automation, moving people away from agriculture an d moving low value labour intensive work to South East Asia and Africa are obvious steps.
Western Europe has a lot of immigration and the population is actually increasing. Japan has stagnated for about three decades now.
All markets are not stable right now, but EU and US are a mess indeed
https://i.imgur.com/l8Hgsnm.png
As someone who doesn't care about the markets, I see sudden/sharp price increases for food, fuel, gas, wood, metals, paint, and a few other things. A real mess.
Looks like some European ones are already recovering quickly though
Yeah, up and down constantly. I'm following markets and the worst I've seen was almost -20% YTD for DAX recently, this is scary
Oversold? Good short term buy opportunity? But more downside risk in medium term?
Come August when Xi will take an unusual 3rd term he was supposed to be celebrating the advantages of their form of government in dealing with covid. Instead he may be dealing with a persistent covid battle or worse an overflowing healthcare system while the rest of the world has moved on.
For giggles, the US should organize an unprecedented NBA post-covid celebration all-star thing with packed stadiums a week before the congress.
For giggles, the US should organize an unprecedented NBA post-covid celebration all-star thing with packed stadiums a week before the congress.
It's a bit more than an unusual 3rd term. He pretty much declared himself a dictator for life last time with the alteration of the constitution. I guess it's just my opinion, but I doubt any dictator for life is going to let go of that status regardless of any party politics. He already disapeared most of his opposition last time. The facts that he's bad for China will have no influence on his dictorial control this time. That's what being a dictator is all about.
No dictator is absolute. I’m sure a lot of politics is happening behind the scenes.
Not many of them seem to die of old age, either.
> the rest of the world has moved on.
(Looking at thousands of deaths per day in the US alone)
`This is fine.jpg`
(Looking at thousands of deaths per day in the US alone)
`This is fine.jpg`
Why are people still saying this? This statistic has been unmasked to be quite useless and only used for fear mongering so politicians/bureaucrats can cling to their emergency powers.
These “Thousands of deaths” are where the deceased happened to also test positive for COVID. Most of the deaths were people who were already very sick and likely not caused by COVID.
These “Thousands of deaths” are where the deceased happened to also test positive for COVID. Most of the deaths were people who were already very sick and likely not caused by COVID.
If you just look at excess deaths, thousands still seems correct. The Economist doesn't have recent numbers (I'm sure they are lower), but their last numbers showed ~16k excess deaths in a week.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...
How many of these are due to suicide? Failing heath due to lack of socialization? Inability to get exercise? Poor diet? Depression?
We’re now so far past thinking the cost of the pointless lockdowns was worth the benefit.
Luckily, those who used COVID to seize power now have only a few easily influenced and perpetually fearful people still willing to cede control of their lives.
We’re now so far past thinking the cost of the pointless lockdowns was worth the benefit.
Luckily, those who used COVID to seize power now have only a few easily influenced and perpetually fearful people still willing to cede control of their lives.
I'm extremely critical of how governments have handled the pandemic, but I don't think underplaying the deadliness of Covid is the best position to make that case.
Utah barely locked down, has their kids in school, no mask requirements but has also one of the lowest death rates in the country.
A lot of southern states had the same policy, but have some of the highest death rates in the country. [1]
Utah is also one of the youngest and fittest states in the country while Mississippi (#1 for deaths per capita) is consistently ranked one of the most obese[2]. As far as I'm concerned, Covid should be encouraging the US to talk about their longest lasting health crisis - an obesity epidemic, but for some reason that hasn't materialized.
1. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covi...
2. https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/prevalence-maps.html
Utah barely locked down, has their kids in school, no mask requirements but has also one of the lowest death rates in the country.
A lot of southern states had the same policy, but have some of the highest death rates in the country. [1]
Utah is also one of the youngest and fittest states in the country while Mississippi (#1 for deaths per capita) is consistently ranked one of the most obese[2]. As far as I'm concerned, Covid should be encouraging the US to talk about their longest lasting health crisis - an obesity epidemic, but for some reason that hasn't materialized.
1. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covi...
2. https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/prevalence-maps.html
In the US suicide dropped by 3% over the pandemic.
https://twitter.com/CDCInjury/status/1498357668125323265?s=2...
It's still early days, and there may well be a rise in deaths by suicide as we gradually come out of pandemic. We always need to be watchful.
But all the people who claim that suicide increased during pandemic are simply wrong.
https://twitter.com/CDCInjury/status/1498357668125323265?s=2...
It's still early days, and there may well be a rise in deaths by suicide as we gradually come out of pandemic. We always need to be watchful.
But all the people who claim that suicide increased during pandemic are simply wrong.
Recency of numbers is very important here. Due to the contagiousness of Omicron, new cases seems to have ramped up very quickly, and dissipated very quickly as well.
> Why are people still saying this? This statistic has been unmasked to be quite useless and only used for fear mongering so politicians/bureaucrats can cling to their emergency powers.
Can you post the source you used for this?
Can you post the source you used for this?
Maybe it's fine for you guys that the a part of the population get eliminated because they are not strong enough against a disaster and "they are going to die anyway"...
But no, thank you. That's not the place/mindset I'd like to live in.
Good luck, and stay safe.
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Edit.
Just think of it.
Say Bob is a programmer so addicted to coding. He code and code, day and night, ignored necessary exercises, skipping meals, drinking too much soda. And then omicron hit and he didn't make it.
"He deserves it" you say? Why should not him get another chance to pull out of the rushing sessions and get better at taking care of himself?
But no, thank you. That's not the place/mindset I'd like to live in.
Good luck, and stay safe.
----------------------------
Edit.
Just think of it.
Say Bob is a programmer so addicted to coding. He code and code, day and night, ignored necessary exercises, skipping meals, drinking too much soda. And then omicron hit and he didn't make it.
"He deserves it" you say? Why should not him get another chance to pull out of the rushing sessions and get better at taking care of himself?
Here's the alternative:
- Forced vaccinations/vax passes
- Children vaccinated
- Boosters forever
- Mask mandates forever
- Social distancing forever
That's not a place/mindset I'd like to live in.
- Forced vaccinations/vax passes
- Children vaccinated
- Boosters forever
- Mask mandates forever
- Social distancing forever
That's not a place/mindset I'd like to live in.
Vaccinations don't have to be forced. I wasn't forced to get mine, I got it because I'm not an idiot.
Children are vaccinated all over the world every day for multiple different diseases.
Are boosters required for ever? What's your research on this? Where did you get your time machine?
Again the use of forever, masks and social distancing become nice to have options for people but after vaccination these are guidelines rather than mandates.
Children are vaccinated all over the world every day for multiple different diseases.
Are boosters required for ever? What's your research on this? Where did you get your time machine?
Again the use of forever, masks and social distancing become nice to have options for people but after vaccination these are guidelines rather than mandates.
Dropping in my area, but still plenty of deaths attributed to it. Citation needed. Regardless of the deaths, there are more disabling side effects than you can shake a stick at.
With the major outbreak in COVID-19 in China right now, I think there will be massive lockdowns coming. That bodes poorly for the economic outlook for that country. It is truly incredible they are still locking down for a disease that, when vaccinated for, is far less deadly or harmful than the flu.
It’s interesting how the totalitarian crackdown worked so well for the first two years but now the dirty free societies have everyone immunized by infections. As for China - I’m not sure they can crack down on omnicron as well since it’s so much more infectious and they can’t afford anymore economic shutdowns. Hong Kong already seems to have given up and following the rest of the world
Did it work well or did China just stop reporting cases?
> dirty free societies have everyone immunized by infections
They don't, they really don't, they just stopped caring about people dying
They don't, they really don't, they just stopped caring about people dying
Not really, for example we had people dying in droves last winter in Italy, the numbers this time were much lower, even with less harsh measures, and the expectation is the I'll be lower still going forward.
That's not true. We have vaccines now, that's the only solution, lockdowns were necessary until we had vaccines. We can't be expected to stay in lockdown for ever, covid will not go away, the best weapon we have is vaccination and a level of personal responsibility to stay home if you are ill (doesn't help with asymptomatic transmission). We didn't stop caring, we just aren't going to sit in our houses for another few years for no appreciable benefit.
Omicron is a lot less lethal then vanilla covid, thats just a reality. We started the pandemic with the threat of every 10th infected needing supplementary oxygen and the number of patients needing hospitalization went down with every mutation. By now the risk is a lot closer to the flu. You could of course say every death is one too many, but thats not the reality we live in. We do accept quite a lot of deaths as a cost of our daily life. And measures curbing the spread arent free either, they come with a death toll itself. So unless i am missing something here i am calling double standard.
Yes it is not covered by the media who is fixated on Ukraine at the moment but Shanghai is under lockdown.
> but Shanghai is under lockdown.
Damn, I honestly didn't expect to read about this first on HN, you are indeed right, almost everyone seems fixated on the war (for understandable reasons, I would say).
I remember posting on this forum 2+ years ago about the Chinese authorities locking down Tianjin and potentially Guangzhou/Shenzen in the South (in early February 2020, I think), I remember a HN-er from Shenzen telling me that things were just fine there. Time does fly fast.
Damn, I honestly didn't expect to read about this first on HN, you are indeed right, almost everyone seems fixated on the war (for understandable reasons, I would say).
I remember posting on this forum 2+ years ago about the Chinese authorities locking down Tianjin and potentially Guangzhou/Shenzen in the South (in early February 2020, I think), I remember a HN-er from Shenzen telling me that things were just fine there. Time does fly fast.
It's very worrying, the footages coming out of Shanghai reminds me a lot of that, and I recall that's when we had huge outbreaks that lead to the March 2020 financial dip.
We are seeing a huge rise in covid detected in wastewater in SV offices who have more people returning to office now that the pandemic is suddenly over.
Even more worrying is this war causing myopia. All of our attention is glued to Ukraine and we are completely discounting the risk. This is chaos.
We are seeing a huge rise in covid detected in wastewater in SV offices who have more people returning to office now that the pandemic is suddenly over.
Even more worrying is this war causing myopia. All of our attention is glued to Ukraine and we are completely discounting the risk. This is chaos.
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I feel bad for China. China has done everything in its power to stop COVID only the rest of the world to drop the ball. China has been blamed for origin of COVID even though WHO investigations found that COVID didn't originate in China. It's like China is in no-win situation, despite doing the right thing, because of propaganda spread by racist right wing politicians.
What WHO investigation said it didn't originate in China?
China have not allowed a proper investigation to take place i.e by people from outside of China. China originally tried to cover up the extent of the problem so I don't trust China to investigate China.
China dropped the ball here, there is no reason they aren't in the same stage as the rest of the world, other than their own decisions. As an autocratic state they can lock down apartment blocks and just stop people moving around and people can't do anything about it. It has ended up being the reason they still need to lockdown now.
China have not allowed a proper investigation to take place i.e by people from outside of China. China originally tried to cover up the extent of the problem so I don't trust China to investigate China.
China dropped the ball here, there is no reason they aren't in the same stage as the rest of the world, other than their own decisions. As an autocratic state they can lock down apartment blocks and just stop people moving around and people can't do anything about it. It has ended up being the reason they still need to lockdown now.
Animals spread Covid. Was anyone expecting the world to wait for every animal to be vaccinated as well?
Lockdowns are a delay strategy until vaccines are available.
Lockdowns are a delay strategy until vaccines are available.
> far less deadly or harmful than the flu
% of severe cases even after vax is enough to overwhelm PRC medical system, especially in less developed regions, leading to potentially millions of death considering size PRC population and gen pop lack of exposure. Covid-zero is still preferable if it can be maintained, vaccines (including mRNA) have completely failed to contain spread of omicron, which doesn't leave many options except waiting for an even less deadly variant + mass produce and distribute treatment drugs to take pressure off medical system.
I'm guessing this is omicron catching up / experimenting with dynamic-zero now that Two Sessions is over.
% of severe cases even after vax is enough to overwhelm PRC medical system, especially in less developed regions, leading to potentially millions of death considering size PRC population and gen pop lack of exposure. Covid-zero is still preferable if it can be maintained, vaccines (including mRNA) have completely failed to contain spread of omicron, which doesn't leave many options except waiting for an even less deadly variant + mass produce and distribute treatment drugs to take pressure off medical system.
I'm guessing this is omicron catching up / experimenting with dynamic-zero now that Two Sessions is over.
China expressed interest in buying on the cheap the stock of those large Russian corporations most of which are doing resource extraction.
American Saber Rattling, greatly overestimating China’s dependence on the West. $128B/yr investment can easily be secured from Russia. And what? The West is going to stop buying Chinese finished good and make their own? LOL
$128bn a year investment from Russia? That's a lot of roubles and the number of roubles required will only go up. Russia are going to need every penny they have to rebuild the army that is currently being pummeled.
Euh, Russia was similar to the US 30 years ago.
US grew x14 and Russia literally stayed the same.
You're claiming a country with the GDP of Italy can replace the entire west. While they are already spending 6% on military and everyone can see how that turned out...
Big LOL
US grew x14 and Russia literally stayed the same.
You're claiming a country with the GDP of Italy can replace the entire west. While they are already spending 6% on military and everyone can see how that turned out...
Big LOL