Majority of Americans wrongly believe US is in recession – and most blame Biden(theguardian.com)
theguardian.com
Majority of Americans wrongly believe US is in recession – and most blame Biden
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/22/poll-economy-recession-biden
60 comments
I just don't agree.
The only time in my life the average person thought the economy was good was the peak of the dot com bubble.
Since then the average person either thinks the economy is bad and we are about to go into a recession if they don't think we are already in one, or we actually are in a recession.
It is the problem of the marginal utility of a dollar when the society is already so far out on this logarithmic curve.
The only time in my life the average person thought the economy was good was the peak of the dot com bubble.
Since then the average person either thinks the economy is bad and we are about to go into a recession if they don't think we are already in one, or we actually are in a recession.
It is the problem of the marginal utility of a dollar when the society is already so far out on this logarithmic curve.
I have found that it largely depends on class. If you are a blue collar or middle class worker, things have been getting worse for several decades now. If you are upper-middle class or richer, there may be more ebbs and flows in how you experience the economy.
Except lower class people got the highest increases in wages over the last few years. It's only the top 5% that haven't netted out far ahead, and they're basically at the same level as before.
And how has the cost of living/housing/transportation increased? And not just over 5 years. Over decades. How much more are they actually saving compared to 10 or 20 years ago? The reason why your points are considered "gaslighting" by others is because you are addressing the wrong questions.
Yeah, was going to comment the same. Pretty clear evidence of a lot of wage compression the past few years
https://www.nber.org/papers/w31010
https://www.ft.com/content/f32d4927-a182-4d7c-bf2d-dd915ef84...
Your data ironically cannot be viewed unless you are a paying member.
When you bring this up people call it "gaslighting" because positive news can't be real. It's honestly bizarre.
> If you are a blue collar or middle class worker
This. All of my friends are blue collar workers. It's been getting tougher for them year after year. It's been difficult to watch at times.
The ones who have gone to work for themselves fare better, but it hasn't gotten any easier for those grinding it out on an hourly wage.
This. All of my friends are blue collar workers. It's been getting tougher for them year after year. It's been difficult to watch at times.
The ones who have gone to work for themselves fare better, but it hasn't gotten any easier for those grinding it out on an hourly wage.
Your theory doesn’t explain 49% of people thinking the sp500 is down for the year
I think the reason for this is that most people don’t even know the answer. If there were only 2 options when this question was asked then 49% of people saying the s&p500 is down would indicate a low confidence result I think. The number is basically a meaningless coin flip.
Eh. You need the average person being more likely to guess incorrectly given at least some of them will know the right answer
> gathering the data wrong more than it indicates mass public hysteria.
Simpler explanation - people derive their model of the world from the news, and the news is slanted heavily towards economic negativity. For roughly a year in 2023 exceptionally strong unemployment reports were reported as "bad" because they caused the markets to decline because investors want lower rates. People see layoffs in the news, despite the fact that big tech has a fraction of total employment even in the information sector.
Simpler explanation - people derive their model of the world from the news, and the news is slanted heavily towards economic negativity. For roughly a year in 2023 exceptionally strong unemployment reports were reported as "bad" because they caused the markets to decline because investors want lower rates. People see layoffs in the news, despite the fact that big tech has a fraction of total employment even in the information sector.
The Guardian claims in this article that "A recession is generally defined by a decrease in economic activity, typically measured as gross domestic product (GDP), over two successive quarters, although in the US the National Bureau of Economic Research (NEBR) has the final say".
If you are going to let the NEBR have the final say, then you can never know whether you are currently in a recession because the NEBR does not those calls until revised data comes in, which takes a long time.
So the Guardian, by its definition of recession, can not know whether Americans are right or wrong about whether the US is in recession (I don't share their definition, there is no official definition of a recession in the US, although the NBER is a highly respected private organization).
In past recessions, most mainstream economists have denied that there was a recession when one was in fact beginning.
If you are going to let the NEBR have the final say, then you can never know whether you are currently in a recession because the NEBR does not those calls until revised data comes in, which takes a long time.
So the Guardian, by its definition of recession, can not know whether Americans are right or wrong about whether the US is in recession (I don't share their definition, there is no official definition of a recession in the US, although the NBER is a highly respected private organization).
In past recessions, most mainstream economists have denied that there was a recession when one was in fact beginning.
Nobody thinks multiple successive years of positive growth real GDP is a recession, it's just not reality, NBER or not.
What are your GDP numbers for last quarter and this quarter and how do you know they are correct?
Real median household income in US is in a recession. It’s going in wrong direction for the first time in US history.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEFAINUSA672N
Majority of Americans feel the inflation squeeze.
The top percentile who own assets and businesses are getting a massive boost.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEFAINUSA672N
Majority of Americans feel the inflation squeeze.
The top percentile who own assets and businesses are getting a massive boost.
Don't believe your lying wallet.
My net worth has 9x'ed since 2020. My total compensation in 2020 was $150k, thanks to a tight labor market in 2021 and a tight labor market today I was able to get two large increases up to $400k, more than 2.6x what I was making then. My wallet is doing fine, and people's wages have increased - at worst - commensurate with inflation.
My wallet - and the Dow around 40k - is saying four more years.
My wallet - and the Dow around 40k - is saying four more years.
You’re an extreme outlier. Congratulations (no sarcasm intended), but your experience is nowhere even close to the normal person.
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Same. Congrats to you, but you’re an extreme outlier. My comp has changed $0 since 2020.
I’m glad to have a job. Lots of layoffs in tech industry.
I’m glad to have a job. Lots of layoffs in tech industry.
No, you are the extreme outlier. Wages have grown by roughly 20% since 2020. In a tight labor market you should be able to get a higher paying job.
I've seen multiple administrations try to make the numbers seem better than they are but this administration has gone fully into gaslight mode. It's going to get a lot worse going into the election too. You're going to see articles like this daily. Whatever numbers the government is publishing do not reflect the experiences of the citizens.
Housing is more unaffordable than it has possibly ever been. Grocery prices have skyrocketed. Several of the big jobs reports were actually all part time or government jobs. Full time private employment was flat or down.
Housing is more unaffordable than it has possibly ever been. Grocery prices have skyrocketed. Several of the big jobs reports were actually all part time or government jobs. Full time private employment was flat or down.
> administration has gone fully into gaslight mode
What exactly does this mean, everything I'm seeing is very positive. I can look at my stock portfolio, my W2, and read the unemployment reports to understand we're basically at full employment. We haven't had this long of a period of sub-4% unemployment in 50 years. We're producing more oil and gas domestically than any time in American history, and the prime age labor force participation rate is as high as it was during the dot-com peak.
If anything I'm feeling gaslit by the people constantly parroting economic doom because Cheerios cost $5 instead of $3. Please, gain some perspective.
> > Whatever numbers the government is publishing do not reflect the experiences of the citizens.
Yes, they do. How do you think they collect this data? What kind of alternate reality are you living in?
I'm seeing more air travel this month than in the history of aviation. This isn't something that happens in a bad economy.
What exactly does this mean, everything I'm seeing is very positive. I can look at my stock portfolio, my W2, and read the unemployment reports to understand we're basically at full employment. We haven't had this long of a period of sub-4% unemployment in 50 years. We're producing more oil and gas domestically than any time in American history, and the prime age labor force participation rate is as high as it was during the dot-com peak.
If anything I'm feeling gaslit by the people constantly parroting economic doom because Cheerios cost $5 instead of $3. Please, gain some perspective.
> > Whatever numbers the government is publishing do not reflect the experiences of the citizens.
Yes, they do. How do you think they collect this data? What kind of alternate reality are you living in?
I'm seeing more air travel this month than in the history of aviation. This isn't something that happens in a bad economy.
K shaped economy. You're talking about your stock portfolio so you're in the top part. Perhaps you should get out of your bubble some time and see how the other half live.
Do you have data about the other half? Or just anecdotes?
It feels like it's just anecdotes when the lower half had their wages grow the fastest - again, one of the reasons for inflation.
"Democrats just need to communicate Biden's success more effectively"
I haven't seen this many "Network, I need help" post since 2009.
I vividly remember the Fed refusing to acknowledge a recession until total melt down of the major banks.
I vividly remember the Fed refusing to acknowledge a recession until total melt down of the major banks.
There's a good reason why we don't use you as our economic arbiter and instead have the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is tracked, consistently, over decades.
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One of the common misdirections propagated by these articles is arguing that inflation dropped from 10% to 4%, so things must be better, why aren't people happy about that?
but wait that 4% is on top of the 10%,
the thing that matters is whether the income went up 10% before hitting the 4% inflation, only then would the 4% be a positive number.
the inflation does indeed slow when people run out of money, but that's not going to make put them in good mood
but wait that 4% is on top of the 10%,
the thing that matters is whether the income went up 10% before hitting the 4% inflation, only then would the 4% be a positive number.
the inflation does indeed slow when people run out of money, but that's not going to make put them in good mood
This point is really irritating. When pundits complain about the public being wrong on the economy, they constantly ignore the fact that inflation has been very high for many months, prices went up, so even if inflation is lower now - the prices are still up. I can see the impact of it every time I go to the grocery store.
Yes but you also make more money. American's buying power has literally never been higher.
My salary definitely did not go up by 10% if that's what you mean.
That's a you problem, not something shown by the wage growth data.
Wage growth data is showing that the US wages grew by 10% over the same period we experienced the 10% inflation? Highly doubt it but would be happy to be proven wrong.
Yes, the word "inflation" is pretty much propaganda. Especially when you start talking about rates of change of rates of change. People are concerned when they discover that they are now poorer than they were just a handful of years ago and now a box of Cheerios costs $7.
The statistics say that wage growth has outpaced inflation.
Any sources that you can provide which integrate both of those measures (so that we are comparing prices to salary)? (and of course even if inflation and wage growth were always identical, people would be worse off as they get pushed in to higher tax brackets)
This is full time only, but it sort of clearly shows earnings outpacing CPI.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
Q4 2019: 362
Q1 2020: 367
Q1 2024: 365Only go up?
The existential dread is all about how it's worse than it's ever been before, not about how wage growth has been a little soft for a few years.
The existential dread is all about how it's worse than it's ever been before, not about how wage growth has been a little soft for a few years.
Call it a draw? Seems flat for the past 4 years on the average. I'm glad that someone is getting better than 3% yearly raises.
Correct, it's higher than 2019. Do you think Q1 2020 was a time of mass affluence? You remember the food lines and 15% unemployment, right? It's composition effects.
Facts? Where we're going we don't need facts.
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"The economy is doing fine — it's just the people who aren't."
Unironically yes, and it's mostly a media reaction to higher rates. I recall "Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden" [0]. Turns out massive investment in America spurs growth even with rates as high as they were during the Dot Com boom!
[0] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/forecast-...
[0] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/forecast-...
As they should blame Biden?
Why would they blame Biden for the hottest labor market in decades?
We’re definitely in a recession, after a good 15 or so years of money siphoning upwards. Economists will give answers that are apologetic to the supply side, and people off the street will basically blame Obama or Biden but mysteriously think Trump’s economy was any better (even though, policy and enforcement wise, there was little difference between the three)
It's because people remember having more money and paying less for things under Trump and they are currently living under the opposite of that.
Not really the data, because real wages are higher today than they were under Trump. It's mostly media-driven (and partially TikTok driven) hysteria. Can't wait for that app to be banned.
Yep. A lot of people are significantly more miserable than they’ve ever been. The mass layoffs were traumatic.
> The vast majority of respondents, 72%, indicated they think inflation is increasing. In reality, the rate of inflation has fallen sharply from its post-Covid peak of 9.1% and has been fluctuating between 3% and 4% a year.
Inflation is increasing the depreciation of the dollar at a rate between 3% and 4% per year. Silly public having no idea that inflation is actually the first derivative of that.
> The vast majority of respondents, 72%, indicated they think inflation is increasing. In reality, the rate of inflation has fallen sharply from its post-Covid peak of 9.1% and has been fluctuating between 3% and 4% a year.
Inflation is increasing the depreciation of the dollar at a rate between 3% and 4% per year. Silly public having no idea that inflation is actually the first derivative of that.
Mass layoffs weren't traumatic, layoff rates are tracked and are still lower than 2019 [0]. Speaking anecdotally, everyone I know that got laid off landed at a higher paying gig. This is what the data shows
And yeah, inflation being ~3% is basically the average over the last few decades. It's not apocalyptic.
[0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSLDL
And yeah, inflation being ~3% is basically the average over the last few decades. It's not apocalyptic.
[0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSLDL
You’re also the dude just claiming your income went up $400k in 4 years.
Of course layoffs weren’t traumatic for you.
Of course layoffs weren’t traumatic for you.
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They’re measuring economic productivity based on the horse trading of exponentially increasing asset prices, while ignoring that people are renting more, living in worse accommodations, having less access to transport, and are eating a worse diet. Just because a small percentage of the population is getting rich on paper doesn’t mean the majority will be persuaded that their economic situation isn’t in free fall.