AI Doesn't Kill Jobs? Tell That to Freelancers(wsj.com)
wsj.com
AI Doesn't Kill Jobs? Tell That to Freelancers
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-replace-freelance-jobs-51807bc7
51 comments
Maybe I'm crazy but the picture you're painting sounds like it will lead to the death of society to me
It would certainly radically reshape it.
Maybe the end state is a utopia of human flourishing where no one has to do the shit jobs and we direct AI to create a paradise.
Maybe the ends state is a cyberpunk dystopia where power and wealth concentrates in the hands of those who control the AIs, and the masses fight each other to have the opportunity to sell their soul to be a suit while the rest starve.
Maybe AI progress takes a surprisingly long time, and the next 100 years sees a gentle continuation of the 20th century automation trend.
But I'd be surprised if we could put the genie back in the bottle.
Maybe the end state is a utopia of human flourishing where no one has to do the shit jobs and we direct AI to create a paradise.
Maybe the ends state is a cyberpunk dystopia where power and wealth concentrates in the hands of those who control the AIs, and the masses fight each other to have the opportunity to sell their soul to be a suit while the rest starve.
Maybe AI progress takes a surprisingly long time, and the next 100 years sees a gentle continuation of the 20th century automation trend.
But I'd be surprised if we could put the genie back in the bottle.
> Maybe the end state is a utopia of human flourishing where no one has to do the shit jobs and we direct AI to create a paradise.
So AI can repair sewer pumps? Since when?
So AI can repair sewer pumps? Since when?
once we have a remote operators and capable dumb robots in few years, it will require a lot less working people to repair those? once robot is at certain location, operator will connect and with help of maybe 1 onsite worker it will mean a lot less working man and man hours? normally maybe 5 people would drive there for 2-3 hours and work on it? but with robot, remote operator, who has an experience will be able to fix many places in a day, across the country? send the robots and connect at certain hours, then request them back to warehouse. sounds possible to me.
Why didn't this happen with literally any other technological progress that has resulted in job losses?
Because there were other jobs, since there were still jobs that humans could do better or cheaper than machines could. An AI that is able to replace humans at every currently existing economic activity is probably going to be able to replace humans in whatever new industries are created in the process. What's left for humans to do, but receive UBI?
> An AI that is able to replace humans at every currently existing economic activity
Except this isn't close to reality.
Except this isn't close to reality.
We weren't talking about reality we were talking about a hypothetical future after this slope has been slipped
If it comes to pass it sounds very grim
And it does seem like the direction we are heading in, with less and less likelihood of slowing or reversing course
If it comes to pass it sounds very grim
And it does seem like the direction we are heading in, with less and less likelihood of slowing or reversing course
The grim future you are painting is one where humans have no jobs because everything is automated. So then we can just play games perform art and let ai do all the crap. Sounds good. People who own the land/resources will want to be paid and there will always be jobs for performers, custom chefs, machine maintainers, teachers of how ai works, politicians that govern use of ai in and across borders. Stop being a child and think about how the world works.
Are you paying attention to the sorts of things that AI is currently being used for?
It's generating drawings and music and games and such
It's not replacing fast food service workers, or retail or farmers or plumbers. It's not replacing the shitty grunt work
It's replacing the creative, beautiful stuff
I'm not being childish. I'm simply looking at reality without my head in the sand
It's generating drawings and music and games and such
It's not replacing fast food service workers, or retail or farmers or plumbers. It's not replacing the shitty grunt work
It's replacing the creative, beautiful stuff
I'm not being childish. I'm simply looking at reality without my head in the sand
Haven't seen any AI potters, quilters, muralists or landscape gardeners yet.
It's replacing work that is purely to do with information.
Years ago there was talk about the "anywheres" vs. the "somewheres" - people who can do their jobs from anywhere (home, a cafe, a plane, the other side of the world) vs people whose work is necessaily rooted to a particular place. Your plumbers and farmers and retail workers.
AI can replace "anywhere" work, but there is little progress in robotics. Replacing "somewhere" work is many years away.
It's replacing work that is purely to do with information.
Years ago there was talk about the "anywheres" vs. the "somewheres" - people who can do their jobs from anywhere (home, a cafe, a plane, the other side of the world) vs people whose work is necessaily rooted to a particular place. Your plumbers and farmers and retail workers.
AI can replace "anywhere" work, but there is little progress in robotics. Replacing "somewhere" work is many years away.
>but there is little progress in robotics. Replacing "somewhere" work is many years away.
I agree there's little progress in robotics, relative to AI. But "many years away" might mean just 10 years away. You can buy this robot for 16 grand USD:
https://www.unitree.com/images/Unitree%20G1%20EN%201080p%20%...
To me, it feels like the barrier now is more on the software end than the hardware end. Is this your impression too, or do you disagree?
I agree there's little progress in robotics, relative to AI. But "many years away" might mean just 10 years away. You can buy this robot for 16 grand USD:
https://www.unitree.com/images/Unitree%20G1%20EN%201080p%20%...
To me, it feels like the barrier now is more on the software end than the hardware end. Is this your impression too, or do you disagree?
I think this is myopic and you're the one describing an utopia. Or a dystopia, depending on how one looks at it.
What types of jobs do you think humans will remain superior at forever? Or are you only commenting on the short-term improbability of humans becoming generally outcompeted?
Highly tactile jobs and those in unstandardized environments (plumbers, electricians, etc) are famously difficult for machines to do, and they’ve made little to no progress in that department.
It's true that general-purpose robots have made little progress, compared to general-purpose AI, but the reasons for that might just be financial. AI has become a self-justifying busines model whereas generalist robots are still academic projects, kind of how deep learning was a decade+ ago. Maybe making tactile-aware robots that can navigate random environments will end up being subsumed by ML algorithms using cheapo hardware, kind of like this:
https://mobile-aloha.github.io/
AFAIK this is the current for-profit SOTA robot, which goes for $16,000:
https://www.unitree.com/images/Unitree%20G1%20EN%201080p%20%...
My guess is that it's just an expensive toy, only useful to robotics researchers. But I can imagine in 10 years the big LLM+vision models could somehow pilot them, perhaps very slowly compared to a human, but as long as they can finish the job at 0.1% of a human's wage, it might not really matter how much slower they are.
https://mobile-aloha.github.io/
AFAIK this is the current for-profit SOTA robot, which goes for $16,000:
https://www.unitree.com/images/Unitree%20G1%20EN%201080p%20%...
My guess is that it's just an expensive toy, only useful to robotics researchers. But I can imagine in 10 years the big LLM+vision models could somehow pilot them, perhaps very slowly compared to a human, but as long as they can finish the job at 0.1% of a human's wage, it might not really matter how much slower they are.
You might want to read OpenAI charter. [0] It might be not very close to reality currently, but building this replacement and becoming the gatekeeper is literally their declared goal and purpose of existence. And this is what you probably should see as the main "AI threat" (not from the tech itself but from the people controlling it), because if it's possible at all, it might come to reality way earlier than the nonsense rogue AGI fantasy used as a red herring to distract everybody.
[0] https://openai.com/charter/
[0] https://openai.com/charter/
> is probably going to be able to replace humans in whatever new industries are created in the process
That's an assumption.
https://xkcd.com/605/
That's an assumption.
https://xkcd.com/605/
It is an assumption, but hypothetically, can you give examples of something that such an AI won't be able to do, assuming that it's already far superior to you at every job that exists today?
Bad premise.
AI is not far superior at every job that exists today.
Like, nursing. And a thousand others.
AI is not far superior at every job that exists today.
Like, nursing. And a thousand others.
> AI is not far superior at every job that exists today.
I wasn't claiming that. I was responding to what you wrote: you quoted the part of my comment that said "[An AI that is able to replace humans at every currently existing economic activity] is probably going to be able to replace humans in whatever new industries are created in the process", which you called an assumption. When you quoted me, were you referring to something else?
I wasn't claiming that. I was responding to what you wrote: you quoted the part of my comment that said "[An AI that is able to replace humans at every currently existing economic activity] is probably going to be able to replace humans in whatever new industries are created in the process", which you called an assumption. When you quoted me, were you referring to something else?
Okay to be clear your initial premise was bad too
Farmers went from 70% to less than 20% of the population in a single lifetime.
How frequently do you lament their disappearance?
How frequently do you lament their disappearance?
The health and environmental impacts of centralizing and industrializing food production are lamentable, even if most Americans don't think about it.
Assuming it were feasible, do you wish you were a farmer?
I may be in the minority in this very diverse crowd, but yes, I would prefer that over my corporate job.
You would certainly be in the minority.
The vast majority of mankind has left farming, once the opportunity presented itself.
The vast majority of mankind has left farming, once the opportunity presented itself.
[deleted]
What good does it to do make corporate things more efficient if you also drastically reduce the total number of jobs and make it where the average person has no money to buy your precious goods? Make no mistake, so-called "AI" will end up taking away every non-menial job if we don't reign it in somehow, or start providing UBI.
Alternatively, if prices stay affordable like they are currently, it democratizes skills that are required to do something interesting. I see it as empowering for very small creators.
Let’s say I’m an animator but can’t make music. Now I can add moderate quality custom music to my animations and make indie animations entirely solo. That was impossible before.
And let’s not ignore all the great artists out there who struggle programming in their game engine, and can use AI to hack together basic interactivity. Is it better than a professional? No, but it allows a solo artist to craft an experience entirely solo.
AI does for a lot of things what the internet did for publishing - give everyone the power to do it themselves at a smaller scale.
Let’s say I’m an animator but can’t make music. Now I can add moderate quality custom music to my animations and make indie animations entirely solo. That was impossible before.
And let’s not ignore all the great artists out there who struggle programming in their game engine, and can use AI to hack together basic interactivity. Is it better than a professional? No, but it allows a solo artist to craft an experience entirely solo.
AI does for a lot of things what the internet did for publishing - give everyone the power to do it themselves at a smaller scale.
>The inequality will continue indefinitely
Uh, only if you don't vote for politicians who believe in reducing inequality??? Kinda silly to act like inequality is an innate force and not something we control with governments...
Uh, only if you don't vote for politicians who believe in reducing inequality??? Kinda silly to act like inequality is an innate force and not something we control with governments...
>Uh, only if you don't vote for politicians who believe in reducing inequality???
Perhaps things are different elsewhere, but here in the US the only politicians with a hope of being elected (democrats and republicans) owe their campaigns to the very same holders of purse strings. Believing that inequality will be solved by voting is complete idiocy. Trite as it might be the saying "if voting changed anything it would be illegal" has been demonstrated to be true time and time again in recent decades.
Voting is a sick joke. Feudalism (on a global scale) is inevitable.
Perhaps things are different elsewhere, but here in the US the only politicians with a hope of being elected (democrats and republicans) owe their campaigns to the very same holders of purse strings. Believing that inequality will be solved by voting is complete idiocy. Trite as it might be the saying "if voting changed anything it would be illegal" has been demonstrated to be true time and time again in recent decades.
Voting is a sick joke. Feudalism (on a global scale) is inevitable.
Inequality is an innate force.
Obviously.
Obviously.
Artificial systems don't replace humans. There aren't processing facilities chopping us up for parts. Artificial systems don't kill jobs as the function remains.
Artificial systems provide a value incentive that could be realigned with humans. That would be beyond difficult as there are so many downsides to hiring humans, but it could happen.
I posit that this will be the same fight as inhouse tech versus outsourcing tech. Eventually, whatever mechanism is implemented will prove to have a negative value for the company. Realignment will occur and the coin will flip to the other side. Inhouse becomes outsourced or outsourcing becomes inhouse. It's inevitable.
The same is inevitable with artificial systems versus human intervention. Flip.
Artificial systems provide a value incentive that could be realigned with humans. That would be beyond difficult as there are so many downsides to hiring humans, but it could happen.
I posit that this will be the same fight as inhouse tech versus outsourcing tech. Eventually, whatever mechanism is implemented will prove to have a negative value for the company. Realignment will occur and the coin will flip to the other side. Inhouse becomes outsourced or outsourcing becomes inhouse. It's inevitable.
The same is inevitable with artificial systems versus human intervention. Flip.
>>> Artificial systems don't replace humans
Artificial systems have yet to replace humans (possibly).
Just because it's been true up to now, doesn't mean there isn't a phase transition on the horizon.
Artificial systems have yet to replace humans (possibly).
Just because it's been true up to now, doesn't mean there isn't a phase transition on the horizon.
AI also made freelancers much more productive.
Slow death by a thousand cuts?
Yes color me unsurprised. I've said it before - the real market that is being decimated is the gig economy. The quality of generative AI may not be top-notch, but it presents an easy drop-in replacement for one-off tasks that people previously outsourced to platforms like Fiverr (voiceovers, logo design, clip art, copy editing, translation, etc).
The 2030s are going to be interesting.
Yes. And?
offshoring was a good thing. bringing in millions of immigrants (for the sole purpose of driving the wages down) was a good thing, but now that it's your jobs that are on the line now, it is le bad and should be immediately banned, right?
offshoring was a good thing. bringing in millions of immigrants (for the sole purpose of driving the wages down) was a good thing, but now that it's your jobs that are on the line now, it is le bad and should be immediately banned, right?
This is exactly the thing, and when CoPilot and friends finally start spewing offshoring quality code, that does the job regardless, good luck.
> Jennifer Kelly, a freelance copywriter in the picturesque New England town of Walpole, N.H., feels bad for any young people who might try to follow in her footsteps.
How many typists did word processors put out of jobs? Before, if you wrote a paper or document, you would write it out by hand in a notebook, correct what you wanted and then a lot of times pay a professional typist to quickly and correctly type it up for you. This was a lot better than trying to do it yourself, and spending many frustrating hours making mistakes and using whiteout and retyping.
You will always be able to find someone adversely affected by technology. For example, refrigeration put icemen out of work.
How many typists did word processors put out of jobs? Before, if you wrote a paper or document, you would write it out by hand in a notebook, correct what you wanted and then a lot of times pay a professional typist to quickly and correctly type it up for you. This was a lot better than trying to do it yourself, and spending many frustrating hours making mistakes and using whiteout and retyping.
You will always be able to find someone adversely affected by technology. For example, refrigeration put icemen out of work.
I have an example for you that poses an ethical question.
I frequent a KFC, in the 15 years I've been going there the staff count has halved. In the last year they have installed automated ordering machines which for me is great I can use it. For some people they don't like the added complexity ( they aren't as technologically savvy) and prefer ordering in person. However instead of 3 people working at a teller there is now only 1. AI in a few years could likely entirely replace that last person and a place that previously employed 15 unskilled labourers will employ at most 1 or two, per shift.
Those people didn't get UBI, they didn't get the opportunity to reskill, they lost their jobs. That is at this point 7-8 families who no longer have a breadwinner.
Do you think the price I pay for my chicken has decreased in those years? I know for a fact profit margins have increased however.
On a side note. No I no longer support that franchise and rather support a local business who employes actual humans.
We are headed for a dystopia where the gap between the rich and the poor increases. I won't lose my job to AI. However if even 50% of the population does it's still an issue. And government moves extremely slowly, the likely hood that taxes or UBI disincentives the dystopia before it happens is very low. AI can be a game changer, however look at the world you live in and tell me which game it will be changing.
I frequent a KFC, in the 15 years I've been going there the staff count has halved. In the last year they have installed automated ordering machines which for me is great I can use it. For some people they don't like the added complexity ( they aren't as technologically savvy) and prefer ordering in person. However instead of 3 people working at a teller there is now only 1. AI in a few years could likely entirely replace that last person and a place that previously employed 15 unskilled labourers will employ at most 1 or two, per shift.
Those people didn't get UBI, they didn't get the opportunity to reskill, they lost their jobs. That is at this point 7-8 families who no longer have a breadwinner.
Do you think the price I pay for my chicken has decreased in those years? I know for a fact profit margins have increased however.
On a side note. No I no longer support that franchise and rather support a local business who employes actual humans.
We are headed for a dystopia where the gap between the rich and the poor increases. I won't lose my job to AI. However if even 50% of the population does it's still an issue. And government moves extremely slowly, the likely hood that taxes or UBI disincentives the dystopia before it happens is very low. AI can be a game changer, however look at the world you live in and tell me which game it will be changing.
I agree in the short-term the argument that AI puts people out of work isn't very strong and would also have told us to not invent word processors like you say. But some people envision a future where all jobs will be done by AI, without humans being able to compete at all.
It's progress and efficiency. It's advantageous to the people with the purse strings and only hurts the people whose skills are no longer required.
The inequality will continue indefinately; AI isn't going anywhere. At least that gives us all (the laid off and the replaceable) more time to catch up on classic tv: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Brain_Center_at_Whipple%27...