China's startup ecosystem has almost completely collapsed in the last 5 years(twitter.com)
twitter.com
China's startup ecosystem has almost completely collapsed in the last 5 years
https://twitter.com/alecstapp/status/1834201320212898179
39 comments
> It's no surprise capital goes elsewhere.
Is it, though? China isn't immune from bad economic policy, but its per capita GDP growth still remains globally impressive[0]. In spite of recent difficulties they're still on an amazing trajectory.
Sure, maybe their chickens are about to come home to roost and they're finally in for a reckoning. I feel like that's the wrong take, though. We've spent the last 30 years with a smirk on our face waiting for China to realize their mistake of eschewing democracy and liberal economics. Somehow they've become the second most powerful nation in the world instead.
They're playing an entirely different game, over there. We underestimate them at our own peril.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_real_GDP_...
Is it, though? China isn't immune from bad economic policy, but its per capita GDP growth still remains globally impressive[0]. In spite of recent difficulties they're still on an amazing trajectory.
Sure, maybe their chickens are about to come home to roost and they're finally in for a reckoning. I feel like that's the wrong take, though. We've spent the last 30 years with a smirk on our face waiting for China to realize their mistake of eschewing democracy and liberal economics. Somehow they've become the second most powerful nation in the world instead.
They're playing an entirely different game, over there. We underestimate them at our own peril.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_real_GDP_...
I saw a comment somewhere that China uses free markets for the benefit of the state, whereas the USA uses free markets for the benefit of private capital.
China mint the most numbers of millionaires and billionaires in the 21st century.
China also has 800 million people making less than $100/month. where do you think the millionaires and billionaires in China skimmed their wealth from?
source? or did you mean $1000/month?
https://www.cnbctv18.com/economy/china-has-over-600-million-...
the updated 2023 estimate is in mandarin
the updated 2023 estimate is in mandarin
While China has made great strides people dont seem to understand that the vast majority of Chinese have the kind of wealth you'd see in a developing country like Thailand or Indonesia.
They are nowhere close to the Us or Europe.
They are nowhere close to the Us or Europe.
Yep they’ve figured out a viable alternative to liberal economics. I’d say the only weakness is if whoever in charge isn’t a benevolent dictator. Democracy is more robust when it comes to this but the trade off is slower growth and much more inefficiencies.
viable alternative for maybe 20 million upper class people in China. 800 million others are making less than $100/month.
There are more than 20 million people in Shanghai alone, not to mention Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and all the other rich cities in China.
The average income in China is around $1000/month, and I frankly don't trust your claim that more than half the population lives on just 10% of that.
The average income in China is around $1000/month, and I frankly don't trust your claim that more than half the population lives on just 10% of that.
> Somehow they've become the second most powerful nation in the world instead.
I think you are mistaking total GDP with "most powerful".
I think you are mistaking total GDP with "most powerful".
Note that I said second most powerful. And yes, the size of a country's economy is one of the major factors when considering its geopolitical influence (though obviously not the only factor).
If you disagree, which country is #2 if not China?
If you disagree, which country is #2 if not China?
If i look at military power id say Russia is #2 consider its international.
If you mean geopolitical influence, id say the major European countries are ahead of China.
If you mean geopolitical influence, id say the major European countries are ahead of China.
> If i look at military power id say Russia is #2
Russia, that just tried to take over a country with 1/14th of the economy and 1/4th of the population, failed, and is at this very moment having its own territory invaded in turn? Meanwhile, China has roughly double the military spending, 50% more active personnel, more weapons, and almost definitely more morale and discipline. And while China's military might be less tested, Russia's was just tested and it broke.
It was also really funny when their elite mercenary corps turned around and bum-rushed Moscow.
> If you mean geopolitical influence, id say the major European countries
China's Exim Bank finances more than the total export financing of the G7, combined[0]. China's foreign aid program rivals members of the G7 as well.
But it's not fair to compare the G7 or the whole European bloc against a single country. So let's say Germany. Sure, they're popular with the US and their continental brethren, but their influence on countries outside that sphere, particularly developing countries, does not match China's.
For instance, they don't have anything like China's $100-billion Belt and Road initiative. China has also invested all over the world in everything from infrastructure to mining projects, even in G7 countries. And in spite of the West's pullback, they're still the "world's factory", while Germany has had difficulty keeping its (recently declining) manufacturing industries competitive against China's[1]. Germany, like many countries in the world, also relies on China as its largest trading partner.
So given the data I've seen, I can't say any one European country, or even a handful, matches up to China. This would make sense given China's much larger population, staggering industrial capacity, aggressive worldwide investment strategies, and leadership among dozens of developing countries.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export%E2%80%93Import_Bank_of_...
[1] https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/german-consumer-is-poo...
Russia, that just tried to take over a country with 1/14th of the economy and 1/4th of the population, failed, and is at this very moment having its own territory invaded in turn? Meanwhile, China has roughly double the military spending, 50% more active personnel, more weapons, and almost definitely more morale and discipline. And while China's military might be less tested, Russia's was just tested and it broke.
It was also really funny when their elite mercenary corps turned around and bum-rushed Moscow.
> If you mean geopolitical influence, id say the major European countries
China's Exim Bank finances more than the total export financing of the G7, combined[0]. China's foreign aid program rivals members of the G7 as well.
But it's not fair to compare the G7 or the whole European bloc against a single country. So let's say Germany. Sure, they're popular with the US and their continental brethren, but their influence on countries outside that sphere, particularly developing countries, does not match China's.
For instance, they don't have anything like China's $100-billion Belt and Road initiative. China has also invested all over the world in everything from infrastructure to mining projects, even in G7 countries. And in spite of the West's pullback, they're still the "world's factory", while Germany has had difficulty keeping its (recently declining) manufacturing industries competitive against China's[1]. Germany, like many countries in the world, also relies on China as its largest trading partner.
So given the data I've seen, I can't say any one European country, or even a handful, matches up to China. This would make sense given China's much larger population, staggering industrial capacity, aggressive worldwide investment strategies, and leadership among dozens of developing countries.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export%E2%80%93Import_Bank_of_...
[1] https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/german-consumer-is-poo...
Is this data actually correct? Looks China is still doing just fine on the tech side, landing a rocket, LLM model that topped coding challenges, robots that are significantly outperforming boston dynamics.
Is it just that those companies were founded during the peak?
Is it just that those companies were founded during the peak?
The CCP doesn’t want ad-tech startups, so they blew up the whole system.
Easier to have zero business leaders that might tip the boat with suggestions.
This is ‘let it rot’ in action.
Easier to have zero business leaders that might tip the boat with suggestions.
This is ‘let it rot’ in action.
Will be interesting to see how it plays out :)
I think ad-tech has been a massive disaster for our society. I quit Instagram recently, I logged on the other day to message someone in the walled garden, I was shocked at what I saw and I couldn't believe I spent any time on it at all!
I think ad-tech has been a massive disaster for our society. I quit Instagram recently, I logged on the other day to message someone in the walled garden, I was shocked at what I saw and I couldn't believe I spent any time on it at all!
because they are the best ad tech. ads are about modifying behavior via external stimuli. instead of advertisers trying to affect behavior, its the government leveraging a social credit system to affect behavior.
> The CCP doesn’t want ad-tech startups
well that's one thing we can agree on.
well that's one thing we can agree on.
CCP has been doing lots of things that people have, by and far, been silently nodding to and agreeing on. This particular instance is just saying the quiet part out loud.
I'm a fan of banning all crypto.
I guess if people can’t be rich with government funny money, they will just accumulate IOU’s from each other. Maybe automate the system in a decentralized ledger that avoids counterparty risk. Oh wait…
Of course tiktok, byd ev’s, solar, ai models coming out of China are doing fine, so it’s not all bleak.
Of course tiktok, byd ev’s, solar, ai models coming out of China are doing fine, so it’s not all bleak.
> VCs in China now spend most of their time suing the startups they invested in to get their money back.
> Founders are also now required to be personally liable for their company’s loans.
> Hard to imagine why anyone would start a company under these conditions.
Whow. They introduced accountability! That would be incredibly harmful to all the crooks out there.
Well done
> Founders are also now required to be personally liable for their company’s loans.
> Hard to imagine why anyone would start a company under these conditions.
Whow. They introduced accountability! That would be incredibly harmful to all the crooks out there.
Well done
> Founders are also now required to be personally liable for their company’s loans.
"Limited Liability" coupled with Venture capital, which was willing to take risky bets, was one of the greatest innovations unshackling a lot of entrepreneurship.
> Whow. They introduced accountability! That would be incredibly harmful to all the crooks out there.
Be careful what you wish for. Founders being personally liable essentially means you are going to get only a fraction of startup activity.
"Limited Liability" coupled with Venture capital, which was willing to take risky bets, was one of the greatest innovations unshackling a lot of entrepreneurship.
> Whow. They introduced accountability! That would be incredibly harmful to all the crooks out there.
Be careful what you wish for. Founders being personally liable essentially means you are going to get only a fraction of startup activity.
> Be careful what you wish for. Founders being personally liable essentially means you are going to get only a fraction of startup activity.
Exactly. Limited liability is a big worry. Crooks everywhere
Exactly. Limited liability is a big worry. Crooks everywhere
Trap for young players: don’t read anything in western world on China. It’s mostly propaganda, misdirection, political games and the like. In other words, pure bullshit if you’re not in the in-crowd to pick up the jokes that TPTB are sending to each other by posting absurd things.
>don’t read anything in western world on China. It’s mostly propaganda, misdirection, political games and the like.
Nonsense. Sure, there's lots of bad reporting about China in the West but generalizing as you do is as absurd as swallowing the latest from Fox News and taking it as gospel. There's also lots of astute, reasoned and well-analyzed reporting about China in the west and elsewhere.
For example, about the region of the world I've been living in for nearly two decades, I see lots of excellent reporting, and much of it comes from external sources; some of the best in fact. It's possible to do this without being within a given system.
What alternative sources should people use for China then? Name a few instead of lazily criticizing to feel superior.
Nonsense. Sure, there's lots of bad reporting about China in the West but generalizing as you do is as absurd as swallowing the latest from Fox News and taking it as gospel. There's also lots of astute, reasoned and well-analyzed reporting about China in the west and elsewhere.
For example, about the region of the world I've been living in for nearly two decades, I see lots of excellent reporting, and much of it comes from external sources; some of the best in fact. It's possible to do this without being within a given system.
What alternative sources should people use for China then? Name a few instead of lazily criticizing to feel superior.
You ever heard of that phrase “actions speak louder than words”? No? Okay, let me give you an intro then.
The only two sources you can trust on this subject matter are actions of countries, and the the use of the thing between your ears. There is a political game that is played and the only thing that matters are the moves made. All of the words wasted in so-called “news” are irrelevant. That’s just entertainment for the masses devoid of reality. The things that matter are actions and inactions of countries. The straight moves, the misdirects, and the jukes along the way. Whenever you are gloating about how a country is doing something dumb, you are saying that you cannot read the hand they are about to play. Keep this in mind, and act accordingly.
The only two sources you can trust on this subject matter are actions of countries, and the the use of the thing between your ears. There is a political game that is played and the only thing that matters are the moves made. All of the words wasted in so-called “news” are irrelevant. That’s just entertainment for the masses devoid of reality. The things that matter are actions and inactions of countries. The straight moves, the misdirects, and the jukes along the way. Whenever you are gloating about how a country is doing something dumb, you are saying that you cannot read the hand they are about to play. Keep this in mind, and act accordingly.
Your claim is absurdly, childishly reductionist. The actions of countries themselves can often be wrapped deeply in layers of obfuscation, secrecy, hidden motive and incompetence, or in many other things, and be extremely hard to even know of unless you're literally on the spot, or read at a distance for the events leading to them and their ramifications.
Analysis of other's texts and selective reading from well curated sources is absolutely useful and important in knowing what's going on in a place or what might come. Many historical examples of this abound and what you say is literally just nonsense, as if it were something invented by a dramatic teenager who hasn't actually read anything of history outside a Robert Ludlum novel (if that).
Many excellent analyses by informed outsiders with insider sources or by people who just used good investigative procedure, existed of Nazi Germany, the USSR under the bolsheviks, the USSR pre-collapse, and other countries, that if they had been read by people with a discerning eye, could have yielded powerful information about what these countries would eventually do and how. News, as in general run of the mill reporting, is often just blather, but in between it, or distilled from it and from other sources, much important information can be gleaned.
Analysis of other's texts and selective reading from well curated sources is absolutely useful and important in knowing what's going on in a place or what might come. Many historical examples of this abound and what you say is literally just nonsense, as if it were something invented by a dramatic teenager who hasn't actually read anything of history outside a Robert Ludlum novel (if that).
Many excellent analyses by informed outsiders with insider sources or by people who just used good investigative procedure, existed of Nazi Germany, the USSR under the bolsheviks, the USSR pre-collapse, and other countries, that if they had been read by people with a discerning eye, could have yielded powerful information about what these countries would eventually do and how. News, as in general run of the mill reporting, is often just blather, but in between it, or distilled from it and from other sources, much important information can be gleaned.
Ironically, Fox News' reporting on domestic affairs in the US is far more reliable than most Western reporting on China. That's not to compliment Fox News, but just to give you an idea of how poor reporting on China is.
If you want to know about China, the SCMP is a decent source. Caixin is also good, but it's more focused on economics. Also, speaking Chinese and following Chinese social media is a thousand times more informative than any Western news source about China.
If you want to know about China, the SCMP is a decent source. Caixin is also good, but it's more focused on economics. Also, speaking Chinese and following Chinese social media is a thousand times more informative than any Western news source about China.
The actual answer would be peer-reviewed academic articles and studies, or go just go google-translate and read Weibo or Zhihu but these posters won't suggest those because what you will find there isn't going to be pretty.
Is there really an incentive for startups in China today compared to 4 years ago? Look what the government there has done to very rich and influential people in just the last few years. Once you have achieved your goal of building a great business, it can all be taken away from you overnight while you rot in a jail cell. Might as well take it easy and at least enjoy your life instead of losing ten prime years to a hard grind for nothing.
Do you have a link which business was taken away from an entrepreneur?
Is there any independent confirmation of these numbers? Seem too extraordinary to be believed without extraordinary evidence.
The tweet uses "number of companies founded" as a metric, which to me isn't as illustrative as something like revenue/company or similar.
This is about startups, which by definition means companies founded in the previous few years, with very little revenue. His metrics make perfect sense. I must say this is a real surprise. Needs to be corroborated by another source.
The original source is the FT citing a company that tracks startups.
The owner of that company wrote that FT cited the wrong data
Singapore understands this.
Ownership rules are clear, and if under dispute, the courts are viewed as reasonable and fair. Business rules are predictable, you don't have to worry about making an investment based on assumptions that no longer hold next year.
China is the opposite as of the last few years. It's no surprise capital goes elsewhere.