China Can't Win(campbellramble.ai)
campbellramble.ai
China Can't Win
https://www.campbellramble.ai/p/china-cant-win
67 comments
If anything, we should send them more Office licenses to slow them down. If they start putting things in wikis we’ll never catch up.
It has already been done this way.
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2006-apr-09-fi-micro...
In China, WPS has a longer history than Office. The first release of WPS, as a Chinese word processing software, was released in 1989. It wasn't until 1996 when Microsoft reached a format-sharing agreement with Kingsoft that Office entered the Chinese market. After Microsoft tolerated piracy, Office's usage surpassed WPS.
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2006-apr-09-fi-micro...
In China, WPS has a longer history than Office. The first release of WPS, as a Chinese word processing software, was released in 1989. It wasn't until 1996 when Microsoft reached a format-sharing agreement with Kingsoft that Office entered the Chinese market. After Microsoft tolerated piracy, Office's usage surpassed WPS.
I don't know how it's evolved since, but yeah, WPS was an almost perfect clone of Office a decade or so ago. I could help Chinese students use it because everything was so similar that the UI was usable without knowing Chinese if you knew Office already.
That guy is taking a couple of data points and running with them. The US could not AT ALL freeze 2.5T of Chinese assets without major consequences. They froze 300B of russian assets and all other central banks are running away from the dollar. The share of reserve currency in USD is now at its lowest in many decades at 40% and gold is soaring.
Where this current administration is leading, the US does not need an enemy to "lose".
I’m confused about who will make our stuff if we decouple from China. As far as I can tell (trying to order advanced parts in smallish quantities), anyone other than China is a ~10x price difference? I have to assume labor cannot fully explain this, but I have yet to see anyone seriously trying to onshore cheap manufacturing?
Automation, scale, locality which comes from scale.
By locality I mean having an expert or a whole company on a very niche thing effectively as your neighbor. Main reason why it is so hard for Apple to leave China.
By locality I mean having an expert or a whole company on a very niche thing effectively as your neighbor. Main reason why it is so hard for Apple to leave China.
I’m just not sure that this is a Win Lose thing. I want China to win. I want America to win. I just don’t want China to invade Taiwan, etc etc.
What did China even do to be seen as this super evil enemy? Apart from actually challenging American economic superiority?
I like the Chinese people, Chinese history, and loved visiting. My dad was a hippie with lots of books in the house in support of China's communist revolution.
That said I think the big one is that China did not keep their word to the UK regarding Hong Kong. So that moves them to 'suspect' as far as trust goes with Western nations.
I think their secret police stations imbedded/hidden in western nations and their supposed use for secret forced repatriation of people really soured a lot of people/nations on trusting China's behavior.
They are doing a lot of saber rattling regarding Taiwan. Lots of flights as well as naval movements that have raised concerns.
People really don't like what they believe has been happening in Xinjiang.
That said I think the big one is that China did not keep their word to the UK regarding Hong Kong. So that moves them to 'suspect' as far as trust goes with Western nations.
I think their secret police stations imbedded/hidden in western nations and their supposed use for secret forced repatriation of people really soured a lot of people/nations on trusting China's behavior.
They are doing a lot of saber rattling regarding Taiwan. Lots of flights as well as naval movements that have raised concerns.
People really don't like what they believe has been happening in Xinjiang.
This is all true. From a western perspective this is bad. From an non-western perspective this is just what the west has been doing forever. That's my sentiment about the whole thing. The US is just mad that China is challenging them in their own game especially economically. And I am not saying thats bad either. Every country wants to maintain superiority.
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The invaded country has no obligation or reason to make any promises to its former colonial master.
If you are referring to Hong Kong residents as the "invaded country", they are the ones desiring the promises be kept.
And once one makes a promise, it is immaterial whether there was an "obligation or reason" to do so.
Really, all you are saying is China should be free to imprison, torture, and kill dissidents without any criticism, because another country was mean to them once upon a time.
And once one makes a promise, it is immaterial whether there was an "obligation or reason" to do so.
Really, all you are saying is China should be free to imprison, torture, and kill dissidents without any criticism, because another country was mean to them once upon a time.
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What a poor analogy. Put away your colonial arrogance and go argue with hypersonic missiles.
Hmm, ad hominem. Checking your posting history... yep.
I felt the vulnerability and sensitivity that only perpetrators have.
Sending planes close to Taiwan, threatening invasion everyday, like what Russia did before invading Ukraine?
Was Russia merely challenging American superiority?
Was Russia merely challenging American superiority?
What Russia is doing is horrific. I am not saying China is a kingdom of goodness. Rather I am saying the US does the same. We have invaded plenty and is supporting an invasion in the middle east right now. The problem we have with China isn't moral. We have plenty of allies who are morally bad. But they aren't challenging us economically unlike China.
If you look at the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Defense_Identification_Zon... pictured in the lower left, tell me how not to send airplanes into that, when you're the PRC?
This is just bad comedy!
This is just bad comedy!
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Are they described by anyone as a super evil enemy? Is so by whom? The main worry seems not that they are super evil but the combination of threatening some bad stuff like invading Taiwan with having a lot of military and economic power.
Well if you care about democracy, they are the only power that can arguably undermine it, not just at home, but worldwide (tiktok, fueling division, funding antidemocratic parties like Germany's AfD).
Further, look into their support of Russia in their war of conquest against Ukraine, the treatment of their neighbors like the Philippines and look into what their fishing fleet is up to worldwide.
Further, look into their support of Russia in their war of conquest against Ukraine, the treatment of their neighbors like the Philippines and look into what their fishing fleet is up to worldwide.
> if you care about democracy
I do
> they are the only power that can arguably undermine it
Stares at current administration
> tiktok
Meta. Myanmar. Report: https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/09/myanmar-faceb...
> fueling division
Again stares at current administration
> funding antidemocratic parties like Germany's AfD
Elon. Vance. Report: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/14/us/politics/vance-far-rig...
> support of Russia in their war of conquest against Ukraine
Agree. Looks over at Palestine.
> the treatment of their neighbors like the Philippines
Venezuela. Today.
I do
> they are the only power that can arguably undermine it
Stares at current administration
> tiktok
Meta. Myanmar. Report: https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/09/myanmar-faceb...
> fueling division
Again stares at current administration
> funding antidemocratic parties like Germany's AfD
Elon. Vance. Report: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/14/us/politics/vance-far-rig...
> support of Russia in their war of conquest against Ukraine
Agree. Looks over at Palestine.
> the treatment of their neighbors like the Philippines
Venezuela. Today.
To be clear, I'm not arguing in favor of the current administration. In fact, I would argue that they have a similar "might makes right" mindset to the CCP and should be opposed on the same grounds.
If anything, foreign adversaries like China or Russia welcome / help to power parties like the current administration so democracies self destruct.
If anything, foreign adversaries like China or Russia welcome / help to power parties like the current administration so democracies self destruct.
And I'm saying this has nothing to do with moral goods like democracy. The US has toppled plenty of democracies and killed millions of innocent people for its own benefit. "Might makes right" is what we always practiced. The current administration just doesn't care to hide it.
This has everything to do with maintaining economic and military superiority. That's the reason why people consider China a "adversary" not morality. If you don't understand this you won't understand why such a huge percentage of the world's population is wary of the USA just like they are wary of China.
This has everything to do with maintaining economic and military superiority. That's the reason why people consider China a "adversary" not morality. If you don't understand this you won't understand why such a huge percentage of the world's population is wary of the USA just like they are wary of China.
I see where you're coming from, but I disagree.
The US is far from perfect, but - so far, TBD where we go from here - has had IMHO a net positive influence on keeping democracy around (specifically, I'm thinking of Germany after WW2, Western Europe during the Cold War, Japan and with detours South Korea).
Perhaps you'll point out that the US did this out of pure self-interest and these countries are just vassal states to the US. However, a useful comparison in this context is comparing Western Germany (US) to Eastern Germany (Russia), South Korea (US) to North Korea (China) or, say, Poland (US/EU) to Belarus (Russia) to assess which sphere of influence (and its implications on national self-determination) is preferable.
Going back to democracy, in my view is not the "default state" of human society (the default is probably mob rule like we have in Russia).
> That's the reason why people consider China a "adversary" not morality.
I personally view Russia and China as adversaries because they are a serious threat to democracy worldwide (that I think we agree on?), which I believe is the very thing we're discussing.
So in summary, there are very good reasons to be critical of China (CCP) independent of the current US administrations actions and historical baggage of the US.
The US is far from perfect, but - so far, TBD where we go from here - has had IMHO a net positive influence on keeping democracy around (specifically, I'm thinking of Germany after WW2, Western Europe during the Cold War, Japan and with detours South Korea).
Perhaps you'll point out that the US did this out of pure self-interest and these countries are just vassal states to the US. However, a useful comparison in this context is comparing Western Germany (US) to Eastern Germany (Russia), South Korea (US) to North Korea (China) or, say, Poland (US/EU) to Belarus (Russia) to assess which sphere of influence (and its implications on national self-determination) is preferable.
Going back to democracy, in my view is not the "default state" of human society (the default is probably mob rule like we have in Russia).
> That's the reason why people consider China a "adversary" not morality.
I personally view Russia and China as adversaries because they are a serious threat to democracy worldwide (that I think we agree on?), which I believe is the very thing we're discussing.
So in summary, there are very good reasons to be critical of China (CCP) independent of the current US administrations actions and historical baggage of the US.
Your examples of the US doing good for democracy is correct. My examples of the US doing bad and dismantling democracy for its own benefit is also correct. The US has been fantastic for its own people and its allies. Not so for others. Please note that 85% of the world population lies outside.
But all your examples are vs Russia. I will be happy if Russia is dismantled. Both the Soviet Union and Russia has been terrible for its people. China has been absolutely fantastic for its people. They went from absolute poverty to challenging the greatest empire the world has ever seen in just a few decades. I doubt the Chinese people hate their regime.
> to assess which sphere of influence (and its implications on national self-determination) is preferable
Iran, Guatemala, Brazil, etc. All had democratic govt's overthrown by the US.
> I personally view Russia and China as adversaries because they are a serious threat to democracy worldwide (that I think we agree on?), which I believe is the very thing we're discussing.
I personally view Russia, USA and China as serious threats to democracy. Because all three have toppled democratic countries for its benefit. And no I don't think they do it because they hate democracy. They do it because it helps their superiority. The victims just happened to be democratic sometimes.
> So in summary, there are very good reasons to be critical of China (CCP) independent of the current US administrations actions and historical baggage of the US.
And there are very good reasons to be critical of the USA independent of the current Chinese administrations actions and historical baggage of China.
My whole point is that administrations do things for economic and military superiority. Things like morality are just used by administrations to justify actions to their populace. I am sure you _personally_ dislike China for purely moral reasons. Most people are good who think in terms of morality. That is exactly why framing a rival as "evil" works so well. It's about power. If the world works on the basis of justice then the EU should have sanctioned the US for the Iraq debacle and now Palestine.
Can you maybe take a few minutes and write down all the good+bad things the US has done since say WW2 vs China? You'll understand why a neutral third party is wary of both.
But all your examples are vs Russia. I will be happy if Russia is dismantled. Both the Soviet Union and Russia has been terrible for its people. China has been absolutely fantastic for its people. They went from absolute poverty to challenging the greatest empire the world has ever seen in just a few decades. I doubt the Chinese people hate their regime.
> to assess which sphere of influence (and its implications on national self-determination) is preferable
Iran, Guatemala, Brazil, etc. All had democratic govt's overthrown by the US.
> I personally view Russia and China as adversaries because they are a serious threat to democracy worldwide (that I think we agree on?), which I believe is the very thing we're discussing.
I personally view Russia, USA and China as serious threats to democracy. Because all three have toppled democratic countries for its benefit. And no I don't think they do it because they hate democracy. They do it because it helps their superiority. The victims just happened to be democratic sometimes.
> So in summary, there are very good reasons to be critical of China (CCP) independent of the current US administrations actions and historical baggage of the US.
And there are very good reasons to be critical of the USA independent of the current Chinese administrations actions and historical baggage of China.
My whole point is that administrations do things for economic and military superiority. Things like morality are just used by administrations to justify actions to their populace. I am sure you _personally_ dislike China for purely moral reasons. Most people are good who think in terms of morality. That is exactly why framing a rival as "evil" works so well. It's about power. If the world works on the basis of justice then the EU should have sanctioned the US for the Iraq debacle and now Palestine.
Can you maybe take a few minutes and write down all the good+bad things the US has done since say WW2 vs China? You'll understand why a neutral third party is wary of both.
> You'll understand why a neutral third party is wary of both.
Oh I can understand this, yet my conclusion stands that China (CCP) is and remains a threat to democracy woldwide (which is my original point).
You are not disputing this, correct? (if anything, you're drawing an equivalence to the US, which I disagree with, but doesn't refute the conclusion on the original point)?
Oh I can understand this, yet my conclusion stands that China (CCP) is and remains a threat to democracy woldwide (which is my original point).
You are not disputing this, correct? (if anything, you're drawing an equivalence to the US, which I disagree with, but doesn't refute the conclusion on the original point)?
I am disputing it. But I cannot make the same point over and over again. Lets just agree to disagree.
I’ll just leave this here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_foreign_electoral_inte...
It’s a complex issue. It’s understandable people want democracy but it’s also understandable that it can be seen as a security risk. The brexit referendum in the UK is probably the best modern example of this.
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I don't mind people using AI to assist with writing, but when I see the markers of ai assistance, I wonder if the author actually reviewed what the AI wrote(hallucinated?) before publishing the article.
Also the ChatGPT writing style in this piece is really annoying to read.
---
> Author’s Note: What follows is entirely my own opinion
is it? ChatGPT wrote most of it...
---
> they import 30% of soybeans from us
I thought they stopped importing soybeans from the USA?
> Some legacy manufacturing
Where does the author think iPhones, automotive parts, computer / IT equipment, medical devices, machinery tools, are made?
---
If the author is here, can they talk about Trump's TACO strategy? Its one thing to say Trump is just doing a chaos monkey, but if he always pulls back on his promises, then Trump is being consistent, not unreliable.
Also the ChatGPT writing style in this piece is really annoying to read.
---
> Author’s Note: What follows is entirely my own opinion
is it? ChatGPT wrote most of it...
---
> they import 30% of soybeans from us
I thought they stopped importing soybeans from the USA?
> Some legacy manufacturing
Where does the author think iPhones, automotive parts, computer / IT equipment, medical devices, machinery tools, are made?
---
If the author is here, can they talk about Trump's TACO strategy? Its one thing to say Trump is just doing a chaos monkey, but if he always pulls back on his promises, then Trump is being consistent, not unreliable.
It is hard to say what percentage is ChatGPT. Maybe he has some weird prompt?
But usually ChatGPT is stylistically quite good, just missing deeper meaning, right? With this text it was stylistically quite poor (it spends more time reveling in how “everybody’s missing” something, than telling us what that thing is!), and I have no idea if it has deeper meaning because the style was too grating.
But usually ChatGPT is stylistically quite good, just missing deeper meaning, right? With this text it was stylistically quite poor (it spends more time reveling in how “everybody’s missing” something, than telling us what that thing is!), and I have no idea if it has deeper meaning because the style was too grating.
I don't buy the basic economic argument. China can do fine. Take:
>The math is unforgiving: $5-10 trillion in hidden property losses against $5 trillion in bank equity. That’s not a solvency problem—it’s a physics problem.
No, that is not physics, it's finance pretty obviously. The government could deal with it in all sorts of way - lend the banks more money, nationalize them, print money and so on.
People have been saying that sort of thing for decades but China remains uncollapsed with more engineers than pretty much anywhere else, more production, more high speed rail, more new housing even if they overshot a bit and so on. The accounting can always be re-jigged if the physical stuff like trains and factories are working.
>The math is unforgiving: $5-10 trillion in hidden property losses against $5 trillion in bank equity. That’s not a solvency problem—it’s a physics problem.
No, that is not physics, it's finance pretty obviously. The government could deal with it in all sorts of way - lend the banks more money, nationalize them, print money and so on.
People have been saying that sort of thing for decades but China remains uncollapsed with more engineers than pretty much anywhere else, more production, more high speed rail, more new housing even if they overshot a bit and so on. The accounting can always be re-jigged if the physical stuff like trains and factories are working.
Excellent article with excellent points. Why foreign businesses continue to do business with China is beyond comprehension.
China is not a free market. Capitalism is a new thing for them, their regime will not hesitate to go back to the old ways even if they have to starve the entire population to death to ensure that the regime survives.
China people can buy Huawei and Apple phones, but the U.S. cannot buy Huawei phones.
China people can buy BYD, Telsa and various other countries’ cars, but North America cannot buy BYD(and any other chinese brands).
Not even the Party claims that China is capitalistic. I don't see the point you are trying to make.
You cannot succeed or do any sort of business in China unless you have the blessings of the Party.
Whether your are an unimportant shop owner or Jack Fucking Ma.
When the time comes to close completely the borders, the Party will not look at the stock market or the house prices. They will do what they think is the best, for itself.
These are not new things, they happened in the previous generation in Eastern Europe.
You cannot succeed or do any sort of business in China unless you have the blessings of the Party.
Whether your are an unimportant shop owner or Jack Fucking Ma.
When the time comes to close completely the borders, the Party will not look at the stock market or the house prices. They will do what they think is the best, for itself.
These are not new things, they happened in the previous generation in Eastern Europe.
> Not even the Party claims that China is capitalistic.
They claim that the market plays the "decisive role" in setting prices.
> You cannot succeed or do any sort of business in China unless you have the blessings of the Party. Whether your are an unimportant shop owner or Jack Fucking Ma.
This is an exaggeration. They don't care what an unimportant shop owner does. They do care what the leader of a massive tech / financial firm does, and they really don't like it if he does things they think are dangerous for the stability of the financial system while publicly criticizing the financial regulators.
They claim that the market plays the "decisive role" in setting prices.
> You cannot succeed or do any sort of business in China unless you have the blessings of the Party. Whether your are an unimportant shop owner or Jack Fucking Ma.
This is an exaggeration. They don't care what an unimportant shop owner does. They do care what the leader of a massive tech / financial firm does, and they really don't like it if he does things they think are dangerous for the stability of the financial system while publicly criticizing the financial regulators.
>China is not a free market.
Correct, China actually exists.
Correct, China actually exists.
Funny, but even "mostly free market" is not accurate.
Well, yeah, it's hard to approximate a bullshit ideological abstraction.
I don't think China wants to fight.
What would Trump be without an enemy? I think that's the question we need to answer here. Can he thrive in a world in peace? I have difficulty imagining what he would do.
I would go even further: most countries in the world right now don't need an enemy. There is just a few of them that are defined by persistent war.
What would Trump be without an enemy? I think that's the question we need to answer here. Can he thrive in a world in peace? I have difficulty imagining what he would do.
I would go even further: most countries in the world right now don't need an enemy. There is just a few of them that are defined by persistent war.
really unfortunately, these few have capability and will to drag everybody else into war
China has been saber rattling/preparing for war with Taiwan prior to Trump's current US policy direction.
China also switched to wolf warrior diplomacy for close to a decade now.
China also switched to wolf warrior diplomacy for close to a decade now.
The main question I asked is "what would Trump be without an enemy?", and that's your response.
Ok, fine. Let's think of that hypothetical: The US wins.
Then what? How would Trump thrive in that world? What's his next angle? Every single country in the world is thinking that same question.
Ok, fine. Let's think of that hypothetical: The US wins.
Then what? How would Trump thrive in that world? What's his next angle? Every single country in the world is thinking that same question.
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> What would Trump be without an enemy? I
The answer is, "He'd pick another".
IIRC there's a quote from Hitler about how he could have picked another minority than the Jews to rail against.
The answer is, "He'd pick another".
IIRC there's a quote from Hitler about how he could have picked another minority than the Jews to rail against.
The big assumption is that the US can be fully independent from China's rare earth metals in 3 years. Is there any evidence this is possible? A quick search/promt suggests no way, 10-15 years needed for full chain autonomy.
Overall, terribly written useless AI slop.
Overall, terribly written useless AI slop.
"What the US needs from China:
Some legacy manufacturing (toys, furniture, textiles—annoying but replaceable over 5-10 years)"
Is this some Trumpist unreality propaganda? Hello solar panels, just for a start.
Is this some Trumpist unreality propaganda? Hello solar panels, just for a start.
Does china even do much textile manufacturing these days? I thought that moved to poorer countries
> I thought that moved to poorer countries
garments yes, a lot, but not all by any means.
textiles (weaving, etc), less so.
garments yes, a lot, but not all by any means.
textiles (weaving, etc), less so.
I don't know much economics, but the article seems absurd on several points.
- China can nationalize anything on their territory, including banks, buildings, land. Bank debt is not a real problem. Money aren't real. Imports/exports flows are very much in their favor whatever the currency.
- None of the things listed as China needs from US are really needed for their survival. What a nation needs to survive is locally produced goods (incl. food) and energy, and AFAIK, they have both in abundance.
The list can be simplified to:
1) continued access to tech advancements, without which they'll keep on improving on their own with less speed, but let's be honest, we mostly hate this new tech invading our lives. The 7nm they have is good enough for everything, incl. AI.
2) Access to US and allies markets. Seriously?? What US allies? EU, Africa and S.America will happily trade with them without the US.
3) Art. They can just pirate that one. In fact, once decoupling gets to a certain point, they can just ignore copyright completely. No copyright matches communism perfectly, if they ever think of going back to it.
- On the other hand, the things US needs from China will really crash the standard of living, not just the economy, until US replaces all the factories lost in China, and there are a lot of factories to replace. I don't even think US can easily replace the factories themselves without China.
I'm actually a bit scared of Russia resources and industrial design/research + China manufacturing. Just 2 things need to happen and the rest of the world is fcked for the next 100 years: Russia to get real leader(s) interested in their country, not personal profit/status, and China to address their reputation (see Poorly Made In China).
- China can nationalize anything on their territory, including banks, buildings, land. Bank debt is not a real problem. Money aren't real. Imports/exports flows are very much in their favor whatever the currency.
- None of the things listed as China needs from US are really needed for their survival. What a nation needs to survive is locally produced goods (incl. food) and energy, and AFAIK, they have both in abundance.
The list can be simplified to:
1) continued access to tech advancements, without which they'll keep on improving on their own with less speed, but let's be honest, we mostly hate this new tech invading our lives. The 7nm they have is good enough for everything, incl. AI.
2) Access to US and allies markets. Seriously?? What US allies? EU, Africa and S.America will happily trade with them without the US.
3) Art. They can just pirate that one. In fact, once decoupling gets to a certain point, they can just ignore copyright completely. No copyright matches communism perfectly, if they ever think of going back to it.
- On the other hand, the things US needs from China will really crash the standard of living, not just the economy, until US replaces all the factories lost in China, and there are a lot of factories to replace. I don't even think US can easily replace the factories themselves without China.
I'm actually a bit scared of Russia resources and industrial design/research + China manufacturing. Just 2 things need to happen and the rest of the world is fcked for the next 100 years: Russia to get real leader(s) interested in their country, not personal profit/status, and China to address their reputation (see Poorly Made In China).
I'm so tired of reading ChatGPT output. It really distract from the topic.
Retarded finance bro demonstrating why PRC will win.
You just don’t understand.
We can freeze them out of our financial systems. All they’ll have left is all the manufacturing, engineering and R&D talent. The numbers don’t lie, and we have total control over the number.
They are limited to the actual physical world, while we have them by the balls on office suites, IP, and Hollywood movies.
We can freeze them out of our financial systems. All they’ll have left is all the manufacturing, engineering and R&D talent. The numbers don’t lie, and we have total control over the number.
They are limited to the actual physical world, while we have them by the balls on office suites, IP, and Hollywood movies.
So you count tofu dreg, declining population, Tibet, Taiwan, pollution among the real world strengths? Awesome!
No need to use a derogatory term when it's clear you mean something along the lines of "Murica-pilled"
Why do some countries always seem to need an enemy?
Chinese govn't has been using Linux based OS exclusively with WPS Office[1] (co-founded by Xiaomi's Leijun in the 90s)
Private sector use Win+Office though. But tech companies all choose Web based office like Feishu. docx/xlsx/pptx were just for compatibility only and interop with customers. Windows was like a Browser launcher anyway.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WPS_Office