Ukraine's drone commander has Russian oil, troops and morale in his sights(bbc.com)
bbc.com
Ukraine's drone commander has Russian oil, troops and morale in his sights
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1d9wvd2e4ro
38 comments
Ukraine's "long range attack drones" are really just cost optimized cruise missiles. Long-range strike against strategic targets is something you can handle without man in loop control. For example, the original Tomahawks could do terrain radar matching (+inertial guidance) for navigation, and had a fully onboard camera based system for terminal guidance.
There are other technologies. GPS is an obvious one though it can be blocked. I think HIMARs used GPS with inertial backup if it's lost. Also with modern image recognition you can give the thing a picture of what it's supposed to hit for the last bit. I'm not sure which actual techs are used. Ukraine has a market set up where fighters can order the tech they need from defence startups. It's a significant advantage over Russia which has comparable tech but is bureaucratic and corrupt as to how it's allocated.
Some stuff from Google on FP-1 drones - the most popular long range one:
>Technological Features: They emphasize modularity, resilience to electronic warfare, and are developing optical navigation systems to reduce reliance on GPS.
Some stuff from Google on FP-1 drones - the most popular long range one:
>Technological Features: They emphasize modularity, resilience to electronic warfare, and are developing optical navigation systems to reduce reliance on GPS.
You could literally fly drone as a starlink antenna+rpi combo. Have that drone fly far in and then go radio silent until a prescribed time. Do this a few times and you could get CNC pretty far in relatively lightly.
Ah, the periodic "Ukraine is winning the war" propaganda by western media to keep their citizens in a "warmongering" panic mode so that they don't oppose the hike in defence budgets. And to make the Europeans feel less guilty about not suing for peace ( https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/why-unjust-peace-bett... ) and egging the Ukrainians to keep fighting even though Ukraine is losing and being systematically deindustrialised and demilitarised ( https://www.russiamatters.org/blog/4-years-later-what-russia... ). History is repeating itself with the re-militarisation of Europe and it looks like we'll experience another World War. For all the progress they have made, the big 3 of Europe - UK, France and Russia (and emerging power Germany) - all still have a shitty imperialist mindsets which leads to this kind of repeated confrontation that drags us all into their muck. I am really beginning to believe the American pitch that they were the one who kept them all in check, after WW2 with their military bases in EU.
Ah yes, the massive hike in the U.S. budget for Ukraine that went from billions to $0.
In fact, it’s Ukraine that’s providing the U.S. military aid.
Also, I guess the Ukraine wins are complete fantasy, that’s why Middle Eastern countries and the U.S. are striking deals for Ukraine to supply defense weapons to their bases in the Middle East, which they’ve already started doing.
And I guess the burning oil depots and ports across the Black Sea that can be seen on satellites are also absolute fantasy.
And I guess the fact that Russia has gained almost no territory in a year, and doesn’t have even claimed to gain any territory is also a fantasy.
I guess Russian military bloggers who have started questioning the war, at the risk of imprisonment, are also fantasy.
I guess Kim Jong Un now admitting and celebrating the fact that Russia is using North Korean mercenaries is also fantasy.
The list goes on, but it doesn’t change the fact that this 2 week war has now lasted 5 years and Russia has made almost no progress in the last 2-3 years.
In fact, it’s Ukraine that’s providing the U.S. military aid.
Also, I guess the Ukraine wins are complete fantasy, that’s why Middle Eastern countries and the U.S. are striking deals for Ukraine to supply defense weapons to their bases in the Middle East, which they’ve already started doing.
And I guess the burning oil depots and ports across the Black Sea that can be seen on satellites are also absolute fantasy.
And I guess the fact that Russia has gained almost no territory in a year, and doesn’t have even claimed to gain any territory is also a fantasy.
I guess Russian military bloggers who have started questioning the war, at the risk of imprisonment, are also fantasy.
I guess Kim Jong Un now admitting and celebrating the fact that Russia is using North Korean mercenaries is also fantasy.
The list goes on, but it doesn’t change the fact that this 2 week war has now lasted 5 years and Russia has made almost no progress in the last 2-3 years.
> I guess the Ukraine wins are complete fantasy
Yes, it is fantasy when you still talk about a few battles that Ukraine won, what 2-3 years ago? Since then, their counter-offensive to take back Russian occupied territory has failed, they've been forced to withdraw from even the Russia territory they had captured, and during this same period, Russia has slowly kept advancing and occupying more and more of Ukraine's territory.
> I guess the burning oil depots and ports across the Black Sea that can be seen on satellites are also absolute fantasy.
Yes, it is a fantasy if you think burning a few oil depots or damaging refineries or pipelines will suddenly make Russia give up all the territory they have captured in Ukraine and result in the military defeat of Russia. Understand geopolitics - this whole war started because Russia doesn't want Ukraine in NATO because then Russia would lose access to the Black Sea and any NATO missiles in Ukraine can reach Moscow within a few minutes. And that is why Ukrainian strategists are stupid if they think drone and missile attacks deep into Russia will make Russia give up - no, it won't because every successful drone and military strike deep into Russia keeps reminding them of how vulnerable they will become if NATO comes to Ukraine! Every successful drone and missile strike thus means that Russia will keep fighting ruthlessly to destroy the Ukrainian army (demilitarisation), and that is what they are doing.
> I guess the fact that Russia has gained almost no territory in a year, and doesn’t have even claimed to gain any territory is also a fantasy.
ISW itself reports that Russia's average monthly gain (in the last 12 months) has been around (roughly) 171 sq. miles / month (in the last 12 months). As for your claim of "silence" from Russia on newly occupied territories, RT reported recently that ‘A few kilometers’ left to liberate Donbass – Kremlin - https://www.rt.com/russia/638343-peskov-donbass-kilometers-l... .
There is no doubt that the Russians are advancing slowly. And that is partly due to the good defence by the Ukrainian military. But it is also partly Russian strategy to advance slowly because their goal is not just to occupy territory but to de-industrialise and demilitarise Ukraine - In other words, Russia wants to drag this war as long as possible till it either achieves victory through diplomatic surrender or military surrender. It knows time is running out for Ukraine as it is economically crippled, and its military is running out of men.
> I guess Kim Jong Un now admitting and celebrating the fact that Russia is using North Korean mercenaries is also fantasy.
The Russians and the North Koreans have military alliance to help each other. That Russia can rely on North Korea as an ally to join and fight with it should worry the Ukrainians as it shows what a true military alliance is. Compared to how the Koreans have helped the Russians take back the territory that Ukraine had captured, Ukraine's American and European NATO allies look like cowards in not joining them to fight the Russians.
> Russia has made almost no progress in the last 2-3 years.
Shows what you really know - "Since February 24, 2025 ... Moscow’s troops have taken 4,524 square kilometres (1,750 square miles)" - Russian gains in 4th year of Ukraine war exceeded previous 2 years combined: Analysis - https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2026/02/24/russian-...
Yes, it is fantasy when you still talk about a few battles that Ukraine won, what 2-3 years ago? Since then, their counter-offensive to take back Russian occupied territory has failed, they've been forced to withdraw from even the Russia territory they had captured, and during this same period, Russia has slowly kept advancing and occupying more and more of Ukraine's territory.
> I guess the burning oil depots and ports across the Black Sea that can be seen on satellites are also absolute fantasy.
Yes, it is a fantasy if you think burning a few oil depots or damaging refineries or pipelines will suddenly make Russia give up all the territory they have captured in Ukraine and result in the military defeat of Russia. Understand geopolitics - this whole war started because Russia doesn't want Ukraine in NATO because then Russia would lose access to the Black Sea and any NATO missiles in Ukraine can reach Moscow within a few minutes. And that is why Ukrainian strategists are stupid if they think drone and missile attacks deep into Russia will make Russia give up - no, it won't because every successful drone and military strike deep into Russia keeps reminding them of how vulnerable they will become if NATO comes to Ukraine! Every successful drone and missile strike thus means that Russia will keep fighting ruthlessly to destroy the Ukrainian army (demilitarisation), and that is what they are doing.
> I guess the fact that Russia has gained almost no territory in a year, and doesn’t have even claimed to gain any territory is also a fantasy.
ISW itself reports that Russia's average monthly gain (in the last 12 months) has been around (roughly) 171 sq. miles / month (in the last 12 months). As for your claim of "silence" from Russia on newly occupied territories, RT reported recently that ‘A few kilometers’ left to liberate Donbass – Kremlin - https://www.rt.com/russia/638343-peskov-donbass-kilometers-l... .
There is no doubt that the Russians are advancing slowly. And that is partly due to the good defence by the Ukrainian military. But it is also partly Russian strategy to advance slowly because their goal is not just to occupy territory but to de-industrialise and demilitarise Ukraine - In other words, Russia wants to drag this war as long as possible till it either achieves victory through diplomatic surrender or military surrender. It knows time is running out for Ukraine as it is economically crippled, and its military is running out of men.
> I guess Kim Jong Un now admitting and celebrating the fact that Russia is using North Korean mercenaries is also fantasy.
The Russians and the North Koreans have military alliance to help each other. That Russia can rely on North Korea as an ally to join and fight with it should worry the Ukrainians as it shows what a true military alliance is. Compared to how the Koreans have helped the Russians take back the territory that Ukraine had captured, Ukraine's American and European NATO allies look like cowards in not joining them to fight the Russians.
> Russia has made almost no progress in the last 2-3 years.
Shows what you really know - "Since February 24, 2025 ... Moscow’s troops have taken 4,524 square kilometres (1,750 square miles)" - Russian gains in 4th year of Ukraine war exceeded previous 2 years combined: Analysis - https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2026/02/24/russian-...
What war are you watching? Ukraine are losing minuscule amounts of land to the Russians, who are taking heavy losses, while clearly destroying Russias capacity to wage war.
Ukraine are winning. With more help, they can win faster. We should do everything we can to help them.
Ukraine are winning. With more help, they can win faster. We should do everything we can to help them.
> Ukraine are losing minuscule amounts of land to the Russians,
The fact is that they are losing land (albeit at, as you say, a slow pace due to good defence). But as the Ukrainian military has no real ability to launch a counter-offensive against the Russian to take back these lands, it is now effectively Russian territory. They have already lost around 20% of their territory and anyone with some common sense about warfare will tell you that Ukraine has no real hope of ever getting back these territories - Ukraine simply doesn't have enough men or the right weaponry to launch a counter-attack. (Yes, you are right somebody should help Ukraine to win this war - and the only way Ukraine can win this war is if the west send in their soldiers to fight alongside Ukrainians. But they will not do that. That is why Ukraine should surrender, to retain what territory and soldiers it it still has before it loses more of them - everyone of you who is urging Ukrainians to keep fighting the Russians alone, never tells me how much territory and men should Ukraine lose before it decides to pragmatically end the war?)
(Either you are ignorant about these facts, or are just peddling falsehood here when you say "Ukraine is winning the war").
The fact is that they are losing land (albeit at, as you say, a slow pace due to good defence). But as the Ukrainian military has no real ability to launch a counter-offensive against the Russian to take back these lands, it is now effectively Russian territory. They have already lost around 20% of their territory and anyone with some common sense about warfare will tell you that Ukraine has no real hope of ever getting back these territories - Ukraine simply doesn't have enough men or the right weaponry to launch a counter-attack. (Yes, you are right somebody should help Ukraine to win this war - and the only way Ukraine can win this war is if the west send in their soldiers to fight alongside Ukrainians. But they will not do that. That is why Ukraine should surrender, to retain what territory and soldiers it it still has before it loses more of them - everyone of you who is urging Ukrainians to keep fighting the Russians alone, never tells me how much territory and men should Ukraine lose before it decides to pragmatically end the war?)
(Either you are ignorant about these facts, or are just peddling falsehood here when you say "Ukraine is winning the war").
Your 2 links are 2 separate opinion pieces, the first of which states that peace is better than war for Ukraine, which, is obvious?
The problem is that Putin’s demands so far only set the stage for future war.
The problem is that Putin’s demands so far only set the stage for future war.
> which states that peace is better than war for Ukraine
No, what it is saying is that Ukraine has no hopes of defeating Russia and thus should accept that reality and settle, however unjust the terms, because otherwise it would lose more territory and / or soldiers, while its economy keeps getting crippled.
No, what it is saying is that Ukraine has no hopes of defeating Russia and thus should accept that reality and settle, however unjust the terms, because otherwise it would lose more territory and / or soldiers, while its economy keeps getting crippled.
I don't think it really works like that. The bbc doesn't sit around think - ah let's push some warmongering propaganda. That's more a Russian thing.
Also re Europeans not suing for peace etc. - it isn't a war between Europe and Russia or NATO and Russia or the US and Russia. It's an invasion by Russia of Ukraine and the Ukrainians are fighting back. Again that's kind of Russian propaganda to say their invasion of Ukraine is actually a war with someone else not involved. The used to say the US but how many times has Trump effectively yelled surrender at the Ukrainians now?
It's history repeating itself along the Russia invades country x with a bunch of bullshit about how it's not it's fault etc which has happened about thirty times, the worst being partnering with Hitler to start WW2.
Russia isn't doing that well at the moment. The western media has always been pro Ukraine but even the Z propagandists are flipping from Russia is invincible to Russia is losing now.
It's a bit of an Afghanistan like situation. Russia is stuck and its regime will hopefully collapse at some point as seems traditional when it loses wars. Putin was looking very nervous last time I saw him and there are talks of palace coups.
Also re Europeans not suing for peace etc. - it isn't a war between Europe and Russia or NATO and Russia or the US and Russia. It's an invasion by Russia of Ukraine and the Ukrainians are fighting back. Again that's kind of Russian propaganda to say their invasion of Ukraine is actually a war with someone else not involved. The used to say the US but how many times has Trump effectively yelled surrender at the Ukrainians now?
It's history repeating itself along the Russia invades country x with a bunch of bullshit about how it's not it's fault etc which has happened about thirty times, the worst being partnering with Hitler to start WW2.
Russia isn't doing that well at the moment. The western media has always been pro Ukraine but even the Z propagandists are flipping from Russia is invincible to Russia is losing now.
It's a bit of an Afghanistan like situation. Russia is stuck and its regime will hopefully collapse at some point as seems traditional when it loses wars. Putin was looking very nervous last time I saw him and there are talks of palace coups.
It's laughable to accuse Europeans of having an 'imperialist mindset' in relation to Ukraine. It's not they who now are gambling with a third World War, it was the Russians who gambled on it when they began seizing territory.
So is he exaggerating or understating their capabilities? I'm surprised they'd disclose their capabilities.
Ukraine has concretely demonstrated their ability to perform deep missile/drone strikes (on the order of ~1500km) onto Russian strategic and economic assets.
Ukrainian drone capabilities in the near battlefield (up to ~20-30km deep) are also not contested. Russian milbloggers will openly talk about the difficulty of massing and movement in that area due to the saturation of drone coverage (and btw, this challenge is more or less symmetric).
So the article is not likely exaggerating any of their capabilities. However, it is exaggerating via omission.
In terms of deep strikes, the question is what the success rate of these missions are, what cadence can they sustain, what's the constellation of Russian lapses that have to line up for a successful strike, etc.
Another known area of weakness (that the Ukrianians are working hard on) is the middle range. How to strike quickly at targets of opportunity in the 50-500km range field. This was/is a capability that things like GMLRS and ATACMS provided, but I imagine the Ukraine is forced to ration those munitions carefully.
Ukrainian drone capabilities in the near battlefield (up to ~20-30km deep) are also not contested. Russian milbloggers will openly talk about the difficulty of massing and movement in that area due to the saturation of drone coverage (and btw, this challenge is more or less symmetric).
So the article is not likely exaggerating any of their capabilities. However, it is exaggerating via omission.
In terms of deep strikes, the question is what the success rate of these missions are, what cadence can they sustain, what's the constellation of Russian lapses that have to line up for a successful strike, etc.
Another known area of weakness (that the Ukrianians are working hard on) is the middle range. How to strike quickly at targets of opportunity in the 50-500km range field. This was/is a capability that things like GMLRS and ATACMS provided, but I imagine the Ukraine is forced to ration those munitions carefully.
From my understanding it seems fairly accurate. A lot of the stuff is pretty public - if drones blow up Russia's stuff they obviously know about it. Also drones get shot down so both sides can have a look at the tech.
The reporting seems a bit misleading suggesting drones kill 30k Russians a month. I think that's total Russian casualties of which drones are a good chunk but not all.
The reporting seems a bit misleading suggesting drones kill 30k Russians a month. I think that's total Russian casualties of which drones are a good chunk but not all.
Given the stated goal, most likely exaggerating
I want to believe Brovdi, good for them.
Ukraine is going to win this war if we can just keep funding them long enough
They are going to lose, the question is how much. I don't see Russians losing the territory they occupy right now, unless some black swan event happens. It remains to be seen how much more territory Russia is able to conquer until they lose their appetite.
The black swan event happened when they failed to topple the Ukrainian government in 2022, it’s just taking time.
There are no indications that Ukraine will lose this war.
There are no indications that Ukraine will lose this war.
> There are no indications that Ukraine will lose this war.
Apart from not controlling 20% of their territory?
Apart from not controlling 20% of their territory?
This is a common story, that Ukraine has lost control over a vital part of it's country, and that is true.
But so has Russia, they also have lost control over their stuff, stuff that Ukraine are constantly blowing up.
Ukraine now have a capable long range offensive capability which allows them to strike deep into Russia.
Russias vital strategic assets are slowly depleting due to Ukrainian strikes, while Ukraine has better support from the rest of the world and are now in fact cooperating with some powerful nations across the world.
Russia are managing to advance a few square kilometer of territory per month? while losing expensive, hard to replace assets continuously.
But so has Russia, they also have lost control over their stuff, stuff that Ukraine are constantly blowing up.
Ukraine now have a capable long range offensive capability which allows them to strike deep into Russia.
Russias vital strategic assets are slowly depleting due to Ukrainian strikes, while Ukraine has better support from the rest of the world and are now in fact cooperating with some powerful nations across the world.
Russia are managing to advance a few square kilometer of territory per month? while losing expensive, hard to replace assets continuously.
They may retain their territory, but they won’t win. No one is going to win.
They should have surrendered years ago, now they're going to wind up with the same territory losses and a few hundred thousand dead on top of it.
Dead killing russians or dead in unmarked mass graves or dead killing Estonians, Lithuanians and Poles. Choices choices.
Mariupol had a mass grave for tens of thousand civilians russia liberated. Had because recently they started erasing it from existence https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/insight/russia-accused-of-era...
Mariupol had a mass grave for tens of thousand civilians russia liberated. Had because recently they started erasing it from existence https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/insight/russia-accused-of-era...
Have you seen how the Russians have treated conquered territories with torture chambers and having to submit to the dictatorship for life? And life is often only a few months as they round the males up and force them into the Russian army to get killed.
Long live the Russian empire… /s
And to replenish their losses Ukrainian regime snatches men on the street. There are thousands of videos made by bystanders.[0] Come and see.
P.S. I love the ad I see on that site: "Over 10 million Ukrainians suffer from anxiety due to the war. Free exercises with scientifically proven effectiveness." The most important exercise now is running - it saves your life.
[0] https://busification.org
P.S. I love the ad I see on that site: "Over 10 million Ukrainians suffer from anxiety due to the war. Free exercises with scientifically proven effectiveness." The most important exercise now is running - it saves your life.
[0] https://busification.org
>most important exercise now is running
or fighting and winning?
or fighting and winning?
There used to be more than enough volunteers among Ukrainians at the beginning of the war, now they are running from conscription officers.
In Russia we had partial mobilization in 2022 but since then the losses are replenished with men voluntarily signing contracts.
It's a meat grinder there for everyone.
In Russia we had partial mobilization in 2022 but since then the losses are replenished with men voluntarily signing contracts.
It's a meat grinder there for everyone.
The Ukrainians seem to be dealing with it by switching to bots, drones and the like as much as possible and moving human resources back.
I'm not sure about the Russians. That would kind of make sense for them too but things seem a bit gummed up by bureaucracy - I just read a thead about them having to use firecrackers in dones due to such restrictions https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/2049026651544023271
I hope Russia manages to get some more sensible leadership or policies. The Ilya Remeslo guy being let out and able to criticize Putin seems somewhat promising.
I'm not sure about the Russians. That would kind of make sense for them too but things seem a bit gummed up by bureaucracy - I just read a thead about them having to use firecrackers in dones due to such restrictions https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/2049026651544023271
I hope Russia manages to get some more sensible leadership or policies. The Ilya Remeslo guy being let out and able to criticize Putin seems somewhat promising.
> I just read a thead about them having to use firecrackers in dones due to such restrictions
Haven't read the thread but the post omits crucial detail. This is about using interceptor drones inside Russia, not on the frontline. Apparently, the thinking is that failed interceptor drones present hazard of their own, but it might be outdated now.
>I hope Russia manages to get some more sensible leadership or policies.
Like what?
More and more people in Russia are unhappy with Putin dragging his feet with so called special military operation. They think that it's long overdue to turn to total war and forget about minimizing civilian losses in the Ukraine.
Haven't read the thread but the post omits crucial detail. This is about using interceptor drones inside Russia, not on the frontline. Apparently, the thinking is that failed interceptor drones present hazard of their own, but it might be outdated now.
>I hope Russia manages to get some more sensible leadership or policies.
Like what?
More and more people in Russia are unhappy with Putin dragging his feet with so called special military operation. They think that it's long overdue to turn to total war and forget about minimizing civilian losses in the Ukraine.
Well an obvious solution would be to back to Russia and do something else. You don't have to invade other countries and have an empire. I'm a Brit and we gave up on that about a century ago and it hasn't been so bad. The whole thing seems anachronistic, I think based on Putin reading too many history books and avoiding modern info on the internet.
>I'm a Brit and we gave up on that about a century ago and it hasn't been so bad.
Wait until Scotland or Northern Ireland gets independent and then China or some other powerful country "midwifes" an anti-British coup there and then we'll talk.
Wait until Scotland or Northern Ireland gets independent and then China or some other powerful country "midwifes" an anti-British coup there and then we'll talk.
For comparison for the Americans, it's New York to Kansas City. For the Europeans, Copenhagen to Rome.
Crazy that the Ukrainians can keep up command-and-control for drones over such a distance. Probably most of it is via Starlink...