I think that we still need a few years 3-5 alone for better models, different architectures and more finetuning.
Those models will affect us more than today already and change how we perceive AI.
Than we will start to see AI optimized hardware (much more optimized).
And than perhaps in 10 years we all run a lot more models locally.
Nonetheless or despite this, the normal consumer doesn't run open models and will probably not do that for a very long time. Searching, keeping up-to-date and running models is still effort and the usage model makes a ton of sense. Escpecially in time of SaaS.
Im not running wikipedia locally. And none of my social circle operates infrastructure / server.
People just want to use it.
Besides that, whatever local models or open models will be able to do, AIaaS will have faster models, better models and more convinient models.
I'm just waiting to pay for google assistent if it becomes smart and can manage my emails my calendar and everything else. After all my gmail account already has access (through email and password reset) to most services i use.
I'm more curiuos when we will see AI service integration through much more system to system communication. Machine friendly apis (which partially already exist anyway)
PS: Look at how fast hardware development currently is. Not much change in Memory etc. Models will not just become 100x smaller in just a few years. We are right now at optimizing those models to be cost efficient. Alone this phase will take a few years.