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krona

3,484 karmajoined 10 yıl önce

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The 'Mythos Moment'

profserious.substack.com
1 points·by krona·2 ay önce·0 comments

BMW Recalls 36,922 X3s over Steering Software Glitch

bmwblog.com
2 points·by krona·6 ay önce·0 comments

comments

krona
·7 dakika önce·discuss
abstract inductive reasoning requires dynamic learning in unfamiliar contexts. All the benchmarks which measure this specifically (in particular, task composition) see LLMs fail catastrophically. There is quite a lot of research published on these limitations now.
krona
·3 saat önce·discuss
LLMs don't have the executive control to dynamically manage and compose mental sub-routines, when it has never seen those sub-routines in its training corpus. That requires fluid intelligence. ARAOC benchmark measures this specifically.
krona
·4 saat önce·discuss
LLMs have almost no fluid intelligence or capacity for abstract inductive reasoning, relying on crystallized intelligence for basically everything.
krona
·5 gün önce·discuss
Interpolation vs extrapolation? It's very simple distinction and fundamental. Look at ARC-AGI-3 for empirical evidence, if that's important to you. My point however is purely an a priori one.
krona
·5 gün önce·discuss
> That's a common meme but it's the opposite of true.

But you're restating what I just wrote - We're training a status quo machine and the probability of anything outside that distribution rapidly drops to zero.
krona
·5 gün önce·discuss
> so the proof to the unit-distance problem was on the manifold, given it was outputed by a LLM?

By design this must be the case, even when you account for stochastic sampling i.e. 'temperature'. All it's outputs are a highly-dimensional combinatorial interpolation (I'm talking about GPTs here)

That's probably why Claude is very good at producing plausible nonsense rather than the often correct response of 'I don't know'.
krona
·5 gün önce·discuss
> They construct space between the points and extrapolate outside of the points.

They don't. They interpolate between the points on a manifold.
krona
·5 gün önce·discuss
The output of a GPT is an interpolation (an estimation of new data points inside the range of known data) rather than extrapolation (estimations outside that range).

99% of the time we don't need a true intellectual breakthrough to get the job done, and often 'new ideas' are simply riffs on or blends of old ones, like fashion or music genres.

The worry to me, however, is that if society comes to rely on this form of 'AI' then eventually the model collapse bleeds into academia (e.g. grant proposals reviewed by AI?) causing a kind of incremental sociocognitive atrophy. Everything becomes a reaffirmation of the status quo.

That being said I think people said something similar about electronic calculators (that if you couldn't do long division by hand then you'd be too incompetent for higher-level calculus.)
krona
·15 gün önce·discuss
How do you know they're not also swallowing a portion of the supplier costs?
krona
·27 gün önce·discuss
Nazism is as eschatological as Marxism (class vs racial struggle) and many other secular/religious ideologies with utopian endpoints.

Depending on your point of view there's no difference (because the end justifies any means), but I think the True Believers of these ideologies would beg to differ.
krona
·27 gün önce·discuss
> literal, unashamed Nazi

He's a Christian Zionist which is the belief in the fulfilment of old testament biblical prophecy. This seems diametrically opposed to Nazism to me, ideologically. I don't know how you'd square the two.
krona
·27 gün önce·discuss
The typing was never the bottleneck.
krona
·geçen ay·discuss
I'm actually talking about both. WSJ publishes Anthropic artificial profitability. Days later the reason for the profitability appears in SpaceX S-1; it's compute costs were artificially suppressed. Both are going public. It's a quid pro quo.
krona
·geçen ay·discuss
They need to financially engineer a good looking quarter beforehand.

Perhaps Larry Ellison can cut them a nice quid pro quo for a few months to make OpenAI look profitable (like the SpaceX/Anthropic deal), although that's probably unlikely given the debt Oracle is taking on to build it's infra.
krona
·geçen ay·discuss
> One reason is that blaming Israel for the Iran FUBAR situation is very convenient, especially for keeping MAGA on board.

Polling shows support for Israel is far greater among Trump loyalist voters than non-loyalist Republicans, so this is surely false.

Perhaps you're confusing "MAGA" with actual American nationalists, who are statistically irrelevant.
krona
·geçen ay·discuss
> The actual cost is going to drop 99%

Do you mean the marginal cost by the producer, or the cost on the consumer? I can't see the price of electricity falling much, and the demand curve is apparently exponential if the hype is to be believed.
krona
·2 ay önce·discuss
I like the alliteration but the article is trying to pitch a dichotomy where one need not exist. China is a good example of classical fascism with 21st century characteristics and according to the article it's working great for them.
krona
·2 ay önce·discuss
Apparently both dev's and the AI are vulnerable to the Dunning Kruger effect.
krona
·2 ay önce·discuss
> About 5,000 counter-protesters from trade unions and anti-fascist groups marched in a separate route in central London.

There's your answer.
krona
·2 ay önce·discuss
> The Metropolitan Police are (justifiably) expecting this protest to turn into a violent riot

Robinson has organised 4 London rallies in recent years and this is the second Unite The Kingdom rally. So what makes you think this will be the one which turns violent?

It's basically families listening to speakers on a stage.