It feels like you're intentionally omitting parts of what I said to make a point, and that I have no hope of correcting your world view, so just gonna clarify for any onlookers then stop arguing further.
> > price is usually purely determined by the net inflows and outflows as decided by humans.
> "as decided by humans", more than 90% of trades are led by bots, so no, price is not being determined by humans.
You skipped past the "MMs just smooth it out over time so everyone gets good pricing at the time and in the size they want it" right afterwards which exactly explains why most trading is between bots! Person A wants to buy 10 shares of Y at time T1, Person B wants to sell 20 shares of Y at time T2, Person C wants to buy 10 shares of Y at time T3. Those are all at different times, therefore bots have to take the other side of each trade, then trade with each other to smooth out prices in between each point.
> In fact, we have seen time and again how some weird companies get a huge inflow of purchases simply because of bots misinterpreting news articles.
I actually clearly see this happening more with humans than with bots. Can you think of a single example attributed to bots? A bot that can misinterpret a news article and lose money is fixed and/or disabled forever. There is no shortage of dumb humans willing to lose money due to a lack of literacy.
> First, this definition has always been circular: what’s the most accurate price? The one the market comes up with. More market, more accuracy!
Market makers and HFT don't determine price: price is usually purely determined by the net inflows and outflows as decided by humans. MMs just smooth it out over time so everyone gets good pricing at the time and in the size they want it.
> Second, there is never any reconciliation of the costs society is saddled with in order to chase arbitrarily more accurate prices
By definition market makers are earning a fraction of the price improvement they provide, ergo the costs to society have to be less that the benefits for better pricing for the companies to stay in business!
> Third, as an index investor, I more or less couldn’t care less
As an index investor you should absolutely care! How do you think you are able to buy into the fund at a reasonable price? And then how do you think the fund is able to rebalance without transaction costs destroying performance long-term?
I run Moonlight directly on my Apple TV and it's great! Apple TV is so wildly better than any smart TV on the market that I'll always have it be the brains of any TV I own for the foreseeable future anyway.
If anything I think the Vision Pro is more discreet on a plane! No big bright screen to annoy or distract other passengers with, plus I can keep my laptop nearly clamshelled on my lap while I work without having to use the tray table
I'll work for 4+ hours straight in my Vision Pro when I'm on a plane or train, but when I'm in a less cramped place I'd rather just use a normal screen
At risk of being "lost in the AI sauce", do you seriously believe that AI isn't actively changing the fabric of society? Almost feels like we're living in totally different realities if that isn't clear-cut
Hypothetically you take the leading expert of a field and say "they believe in their own field too much - far more than I do as a layman - and therefore surely must have psychosis."
Why should I trust that your assessment is correct? Is it likely to ever be correct in the case of a doctor/mechanical engineer/athlete/economist/whatever? So why do so many people insist that an incredibly intelligent AI researcher has fallen into some obvious trap?
And yet if I open Activity Monitor right now: "Emoji & Symbols" is using 1GB of memory, "Spotlight" using 749MB, "Control Center" using 727MB, despite not having used any of the features recently (and additionally restricting Spotlight to index basically nothing or else it'll drain my battery). Each one of those is larger than any of the Electron apps I always have running (Claude, Cursor, Signal, 1Password).
I'm very aware! I live in NYC and have taken many trains up/down the corridor. But it still pales in comparison to the experience I get in Japan (which is cheaper, nicer, faster, more frequent, often more direct, connects up better to local transit within cities, etc.)
You are paying the smartest people in the world to think really really hard, and turns out they might also think really really hard about not making the world a worse place
I'm curious - what were you doing that polars was leaving a 40-80x speedup on the table? I've been happy with it's speed when held correctly, but it's certainly easy to hold it incorrectly and kill your perf if you're not careful
> Unless of course you need aerospace or space-qualified screws in which case they are definitely coming from the US.
Are you claiming somehow that China would be incapable of making these? Or just admitting that the USG generally restricts such contracts to be sourced from the US only? And what does this have to do with Apple?
EDIT: I can't read, sorry all!