As I’ve said in my other post, I’m very confident that imagination is the true bottle neck.
Writing lines of code? Nope. If one can imagine… trust me, writing lines of code is trivial.
Most people have no imagination. So sure they can produce more stuff with llm’s but it’ll just be mostly garbage.
Perhaps they can produce some peculiar workflow that works ‘for them’. Sure. But I think about the money invested into the LLM-based projects and I highly doubt we are going to see any returns that justify the spend. What we are going to see is a felling on the profession of software engineers, since the pipe dream of AGI isn’t coming and imagination is scarce.
Yeah and frankly the innovation would occur irrespective of llm’s.
Would it be harder? Sure. And perhaps the difficulty adds an additional cost of passion being a necessary condition to embark on the innovation. Passion leads to really good stuff.
My personal fear is we get landfill sites of junk software produced. To some extent it should be costly to convert an idea to a concept - the cost being thinking carefully so what you put out there is somewhat legible.
Well it’s mostly explained by the fact that most people lack imagination and can’t hold enough concepts about a particular experience to think about how to re-imagine it, to begin with.
Oh and sadly, llm’s are useless for the imaginative part too. Shucks eh.
It’s truly amazing. This is why I’m not surprised people are ‘blown away’ by llm’s. They were never truly intrinsically intelligent - they were expert regurgitators of knowledge on demand.
Steve already suffered from immense scar tissue of starting with the technology. And yet.. this wisdom blows over peoples minds. More fool them.
Im very confident the experts in every field are not all that impressed by LLMs, relative of course, to those who were 'meh' in the first place. Experts meaning those who actually understand the content, not simply regurgitate or repeat it on demand.
I'd even go as far as to say there are many out there who have a feeling of disdain of the experts and want to see LLMs flourish because of this.
"But those startups that are able to harness the productivity gains to deliver more complete and polished solutions that solve real problems for their users will be unstoppable."
They'd be unstoppable irrespective of LLMs. Why do you think Zuckerberg acquired Instagram? He literally tried copying it and failed. Instagram at the time was absolutely tiny in terms of pure labour, relative to Facebook.
Most people on hacker news are missing the point. Productivity gains for the sake of perceived productivity gains is not what creates economic value. Its not the equivalent of a factory all of a sudden becoming more productive in producing more of the same stuff. Not comparable at all.
"Here's an evil business idea: Use the LLMs to identify the users most likely to be "vocal influencers" and then prioritize resources for them, ensuring they get the best experience. You can engineer a bubble this way."
Its quite likely this is already happening buddy...
The 'random' degradation across all LLM-based services is obvious at this point.
A firm that is led by people who can envision, very clearly, revenue-generating and cost-reduction projects - wins. Writing code by hand is absolutely irrelevant. Who fucking cares. The former is what matters.
Code generation acceleration only matters when those pre-requisites are met. How did Apple go from the verge of bankruptcy to where it is today?
All Im seeing is most people are not smart at all - no wonder they are so impressed by LLMs! They can't think straight. I only see this become even worse over-time. Perhaps this is the stated goal.
Writing lines of code? Nope. If one can imagine… trust me, writing lines of code is trivial.
Most people have no imagination. So sure they can produce more stuff with llm’s but it’ll just be mostly garbage.
Perhaps they can produce some peculiar workflow that works ‘for them’. Sure. But I think about the money invested into the LLM-based projects and I highly doubt we are going to see any returns that justify the spend. What we are going to see is a felling on the profession of software engineers, since the pipe dream of AGI isn’t coming and imagination is scarce.