I agreed last week but the more I have used Fable this week the more I am getting use to Fable.
I think the Taleb argument is really a stretch for this situation. I consider Taleb one of my greatest teachers but that kind of Talebism I have grown suspicious of in time.
How many surgeons actually look like a butcher lol.
Much of Taleb is like this that it sounds profound as a thought experiment but so much has just nothing to do with reality. A lot of what he is arguing against he is actually doing a form of.
I love Taleb but he is absolutely full of shit. It is marketing and his brand. The proof he is correct are some vague options trades he made 40 years ago.
I am at 73% use on the week for all models and 2% use on the week for Fable.
Personally, I am good with the current version of Opus. It is already so strong for my uses that I can't really tell much difference with Fable.
For me, current Opus represents the model strength that can be commoditized. I am not splitting the atom that I need something much smarter.
I have gone completely risk off in the market the last month because of this. Commoditized at the low end and regulation is not going to become less of a problem as the frontier models get stronger.
I suspect 10 years from now we will look back at trillionaire Elon as an obvious tell we are the peak.
CRE also includes warehouses, multifamily apartments, retail, hotels, data centers, medical.
I think we kind of lucked out that we had the start of boom in 2023 instead of a recession.
The diversification has allowed the office space price to correct without a contagion.
As a general rule, any snappy memorable line like "extend and pretend" is almost always wrong and a distortion after awhile. The idea sticks around longer than it should because it is memorable, not because it has anything to do with reality.
I suspect it is all futile without resurrecting the old idea of being "learned" as in learn-ed.
"Learned" didn't really mean what we mean today by being well educated or smart. You can't use AI to cheat and become "learned". AI can find the books to read but you still have to read them and understand the ideas.
There was connotation of breadth as opposed to depth with being "learned".
I think we also have to forget about "the real world". Being "learned" automatically is going to inherit dealing with "the real world" because the real world is always changing and that is exactly why breadth should be the focus going forward more than the depth of the research university model.
Of course, in a society so dominated by credentialism, credentialed people are going to hate AI because it will obviously let anyone cheat at the credential they put so much time and effort into. This doesn't need to be dressed up in some "think of the children" argument.
Claude to me is the greatest thing since sliced bread that increases my "learnedness" every single day but I also am a drop out that invested basically nothing in being a credentialed person.
Exactly. Nothing motivates and unites a society like the physical death involved in war.
I think if you zoom out on a society, you have to have a war regime and a peace regime.
There are going to be coordinating aspects that a war regime can achieve that a peace regime simply can not because the stakes involved fundamentally can't be the same by definition.
I believe the architecture for convolution neural networks were directly inspired by how vision works and some of the core design choices map onto real features of the visual cortex.
It is just so bizarre compared to my everyday experience also.
I never ask Opus or Fable a question and think "what a stupid response".
Quite the opposite. It has actually raised the bar of what I consider an intelligent response to my inquiry. So much so that most responses from humans on most subjects to most forms of inquiry seem stupid and not really thought out.
-- 50% of this forum