The €0.23/meal figure is the number I'd stress-test hardest. Cold chain logistics to sub-Saharan Africa typically breaks on three points:
1. *Last-mile refrigeration*: blast-chilling in Milan is solvable, but maintaining cold chain from port to distribution point in destination countries requires local infrastructure that often doesn't exist or is unreliable. What's your assumption here?
2. *Customs and phytosanitary clearance*: fresh/frozen food imports into many African countries face strict (and slow) regulatory processes. Spoilage during clearance delays can easily flip your unit economics.
3. *"Unutilized logistics resources"*: this usually means backhaul capacity on cargo flights or ships. Backhaul rates are real but highly variable and not guaranteed — building a supply chain on opportunistic capacity is fragile by design.
The engineering model is interesting, but I'd model the regulatory friction and cold chain gap at destination as your primary failure modes before the logistics cost assumptions.
1. *Last-mile refrigeration*: blast-chilling in Milan is solvable, but maintaining cold chain from port to distribution point in destination countries requires local infrastructure that often doesn't exist or is unreliable. What's your assumption here?
2. *Customs and phytosanitary clearance*: fresh/frozen food imports into many African countries face strict (and slow) regulatory processes. Spoilage during clearance delays can easily flip your unit economics.
3. *"Unutilized logistics resources"*: this usually means backhaul capacity on cargo flights or ships. Backhaul rates are real but highly variable and not guaranteed — building a supply chain on opportunistic capacity is fragile by design.
The engineering model is interesting, but I'd model the regulatory friction and cold chain gap at destination as your primary failure modes before the logistics cost assumptions.