In the west, there's no actual competitor to NVIDIA hardware. Yes, people make other chips, but nothing is a serious drop-in replacement for the nv stack. Between the networking and software, they're truly a different "thing" of accelerator, and I don't consider them fungible at all. The US government tried to build 3 supercomputers with each of nvidia/amd/intel accelerators and you can see how it went
> AI compute hardware is not a commodity. And in a shortage, commodities can command high margins.
I don't see the distinction you're drawing about "commodity", but I'm happy to be wrong on that. My point was that spaceX's ai division is buying all their inputs from external vendors and can't meaningfully differentiate themselves from person Y who buys all the same hardware except for the fact they bought them first. Which...
> Correct. But charging people now generates incumbency advantages
I don't see now this is an "incumbency advantage". There's nothing that sticks their clients to stay there and sign up for the next data center.
Maybe they have something else im the books, I truly have no idea. But once you get down from the top rung of full-bandwidth cross section networking at the 100k node networking scale "AI" infra, theres no shortage of people who can do that. Most importantly, labor isn't the big chunk of the outlay. Even if they have 50 engineers clearing $1m/yr, that's pocket change for everything else
EDIT: said 50 engineers at $50m/yr originally and meant 50 @ $1m/yr
The concert analogy makes sense (I analogized it as "staunching the bleeding").
WRT SpaceX building data centers: I think there's a natural tension between a "low margin business" and "being risk adverse". SpaceX (the rocket business) did well because it was high risk and high reward. Building a 10b datacenter to hope to get a slice of a low-margin industry is high risk and low reward and just seems fundamentally like a losing strategy.
What I don't understand is how it's even a good low-margin business. Maybe I'm missing something but:
Data centers (before recently) are low margin businesses because all the inputs are commodities: you buy power (joules), power (PDU), cooling hardware, physical racks, etc.. from the same vendors as everyone else. Worse, your biggest potential clients have the scale to just build it on their own and cut you out because of their scale and because you don't bring anything unique (outside of maybe physical proximity to an interesting market)
xAI has all the same commodity inputs plus another huge upfront capital expense (GPU/storage/networking), and their customer base is exclusively the well-funded companies who would normally just build it on their own.
I assume that they can't get better deals from nvidia than (e.g.) Microsoft because of their scale, so the unit cost of their inputs is the same or worse than their clients.
So the whole game is hoping that they hope to charge more now because people can't build fast enough and try to recoup their upfront costs before either a) other capacity comes online and b) the installed hardware becomes obsolete.
I'm being earnest -- it seems like they're trading one tiny margin service (datacenter) for another tiny margin service, with the added difficulty that there's an additional 10 figures of upfront expenditures and their viability depends solely on paying everything off before the price floor drops. Maybe it's staunching the bleeding, but it seems like not a great move
I'm desperate for people to make tech that's searchable. I'd like to figure out some of the thread/matter bits for my own projects and this is terribly annoying to do
Calling a CPF a "tax ID" is a bit misleading, much like calling an SSN "the way you get social security benefits". You can (even as a non-citizen) get one in a couple mins at the post office, and it's used for literally everything, including things like buying a SIM card or registering for some public WiFi hotspots.
> Hybrid nuclear fusion–fission power plants have been already proposed and studied in theory.
I have a hand-wavy hard sci-fi universe I've been rolling around my head for years and I eventually came to the conclusion that fission-fusion drives would be really handy for spacecraft, since it would be much easier to start a fission reaction in a cold/dark ship than fusion because of the power requirements. Otherwise you need some other way to generate 10s or 100s of MW to start the fusion reaction.
I think you're 100% correct that people won't lose the ability. There's a scary thing I see as a person who works with and recruits students and fresh graduates -- they might not have spent the time to get the skills in the first place.
Sounds backwards -- your company is getting the benefits of your increased productivity and doesn't want to pay for it. Im not sure that's Anthropics problem?
It's like I was a graphic designer and my finance company said "photoshop is too expensive". I wouldn't be mad at Adobe for it
I know nothing about the "industry" of MRIs, but from the physics side, (everything equal) more Tesla is better - at the end of the day, harder magnetic field gets you a stronger signal
Fuck this