yep, this has been obvious to a lot of people for awhile. especially after Cherny posted about exactly this in a massively-popular thread... four months ago: https://x.com/bcherny/status/2007179861115511237
Came here to comment on this line: it completely changes the tone of the article. It's fairly reasonable and neutral until we get here, upon which the antagonism is jarringly clear.
In fact I would posit this is the central crux of the post: OP does not believe those LLM evangelists were ever good programmers.
As others have already noted[1], many well-known excellent programmers - including yourself! and now even Linus! - would beg to differ.
> But for now, I want to emphasize a broader point: I’m hoping 2026 will be the year we stop caring about what people believe AI might do, and instead start reacting to its real, present capabilities.
> So, this is how I’m thinking about AI in 2026. Enough of the predictions. I’m done reacting to hypotheticals propped up by vibes. The impacts of the technologies that already exist are already more than enough to concern us for now…
SPOT ON, let us all take inspiration. "The impacts of the technologies that already exist are already more than enough to concern us for now"!
> Does HBO+Netflix have a 25% share of the streaming market? I've no idea, but possibly.
No, not even close. According to Nielsen from this year, Netflix has only 7.5% of total TV hours and "Warner Bros + Discovery" clocks in at 1.5% ("HBO" as an independent entity is not tracked), for a total of 9%. A whopping 16% to go before crossing that 25% threshold.
> We don't.
This cannot last forever. What's the plan when it runs out?