rad88 · HackerTrans

3 năm trướcdiscuss

That hardly strikes me as more obvious, to say the least.

But then again perhaps no thing has ever struck me at all.

3 năm trướcdiscuss

I'm saying that it's unscientific nonsense. Bolstrom has predicted that the number of people potentially in the future is between approximately 0 and 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. This isn't an estimate that can or should factor into any decision at all. 100B people are going to live in the 21st century. Worry about them.

rad88

3 năm trướcdiscuss

Actual people are vastly outnumbered by entropy fluctuations in the long run, according to any number of valid cosmological models. Their total population is greater than 10^35 by far, and does not depend on whether superintelligence is possible or likely to destroy the actual human race. That question makes no difference to almost every human who will ever have a thought or feeling.

You could say, well, that's just a theory -- and it is a dubious one, indeed. But it's far more established by statistics and physical law than the numbers Bolstrom throws out.

rad88

3 năm trướcdiscuss

It doesn't seem that crazy. Working from a simpler analogy first -- if an alien can read 95% of written English, but completely mischaracterizes the remaining 5%, would a reasonable scientist conclude that they can't read at all and are just guessing randomly? No, and it would indeed be unreasonable to conclude that there's no way to write differently so that the alien performs substantially better.

We know some more about LLMs than we do aliens. The LLM is a neural network whose parameters have been optimized to reduce the total size of its errors, as measured against an enormous set of empirical data.

We have to add to your analogy then, that it's somehow known the alien speaks English on their own planet remarkably well. They are still not perfectly correct, but when they have to describe something on that planet, in English, they can do it better than they generally can given the same task on Earth.

It would again be totally unscientific to conclude that because of this, there is no way the alien can talk about earthly objects or ideas. The impulse of the mere engineer, to just hack around and find out, is a scientific one.

rad88

3 năm trướcdiscuss

Blowing up buildings, murdering jews, plotting assassinations etc. is substantially damaging. It is "extremist".

rad88

3 năm trướcdiscuss

Why is it amazing that it left the pad?

rad88

3 năm trướcdiscuss

Natural phenomena do tend to make sense when investigated scientifically. It seems rather that not all cosmologists and mathematicians have an obligation to develop scientific theories:

  - Blackhole Cosmology, Eternal Inflation: unscientific, dismiss reality
  - Mathematical Universe: unscientific, no reality

The actual sciences brought to bear on cosmology (thermo and statistical mechanics) can make enough sense of our observations, without the psychedelics, but do nothing for cosmology as the search for meaning which is what it really is.

Most of these concepts, in all their variety, share the same metaphysical premise that our observed universe was inevitable. To the extent that it appears very distinct, we simply cannot see the overall structure in which it was actually a certainty.

The Boltzmann Brain at least gets closer to facing the issue objectively. The basic reality that we experience today -- in which there's some amount of matter and charge, spacetime, in which eggs only scramble, etc. -- just happens to be so. From our point of view, something highly "improbable" happened in the distant past.

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